26 – 30 October 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week, SP500 making huge intraday swings, uncertainty reigns in the markets, and huge earnings blow out.

I am still for the major side on the sidelines, there’s too much I don´t “understand” so I prefer to be conservative. I know I am missing on huge returns, but I prefer to sleep without the worry of a market meltdown.
And there are other ways to keep investing. I recently added Masterworks.io painting shares to my portfolio, If there’s interest in it, I will make a post about it.

I am still long $AG , $LVO.MI and Gold CFD.

Next Week:
More earnings ahead, last week was pretty good earnings wise. Intel was a huge upset and Southwest Airlines a huge surprise.
I don´t really know what to think about Tesla, I sort of believe everything is a big scheme, but who knows…

The week ahead:

Earnings Whispers

I will be watching Flastly, It will be interesting to see what happens after last week’s disappointment on US and Bitedance (China /TikTok rivalry).
Microsoft is almost a certain beat with a rally, same as Apple and Amazon.
Curious about how Jetblue is doing, I wasn´t expecting the $LUV earnings.
Facebook will be a huge upset, in my opinion, the ad´s revenue ll be very bad,
The last ones are the big pharma, Pfizer, Moderna, and Gilead

WTI
WTI keeps inside the trading channel/trend lines.
I already explained my narrative, there´s no demand for the excess supply.
I think oil is heading lower, probably retest of – $30.

Oanda WTI CFD daily
Market Gauge Crude Dashboard

Gold
The yellow metal It´s trapped on the current level.
My reading is that every move is dependant on how the dollar is moving, and the uncertainty of the US elections is making gold numb.

Fun fact $GVC, gold volatility, is approaching Its lows of $20.
Technically, gold broke out a bull pennant and should be up, the failure to push through $1900 cloud be a warning.

I am still watching the $1800 level to add to my position with size (yellow area).

Oanda Gold CFD daily
Market Gauge Gold Dashboard


SP500
This big boy, the choppiness is unreal…
Last week’s swings were between a 79 points range, with intraday drops of 30-40 points. That´s huge money on the table.

SPX cash session

Technically looks like we are revisiting the 3500 level, again before a drop.

Oanda CFD SP500

To be fair, the market is holding nicely, the 250DMA is above 62%.
One thing to have in consideration, the impact of the US elections on the dollar and therefore on the stocks. Stocks are a huge yield provider for many investors in the US and If USD is no longer appellative, they will look somewhere else for that yield.

Themes
We are at that time that the “manias” will start moving again.
My special candidates are $AVO, Mission Produce, an avocado producing company.

Avo daily

$TLRY, Tilray a cannabis producing company, just broke out and could eye $11.

TLRY daily

The last mania is guns, after US elections, doesn’t matter which side wins, there will be a huge blowout. Guns will be back again with full force. I am eying $RGR Rugger and $SWBI Smith and Wesson.

SWBI and RGR daily

Other Notes
FX is going insane, CAD and AUD look very vulnerable.

Market Gauge FX

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR German Ifo climate / Cash rate / Jobs
– USD Durable goods / GDP / Chicago PMI
– CAD Cash rate / GDP
– CNY PMIs

19 – 23 October 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
More choppiness, I took the week to connect again to the markets and keep my ear to the ground.

Earnings have been good, especially banks. Bringing back the ideas from last week, banks are a laggard and probably is the sector to be in for the next days.
Airlines earnings also started with an up kick from $UAL, from last week hint, It is also a sector to be in. Some stocks are at their lows. I can´t foresee the future for airlines, but I can foretell they aren+t going bankrupt anytime soon.

Still long the same positions $LVO.MI, $AG, and Gold (CFD).

Next Week:
More earnings, special attention to $T, $NFLX, $TSLA, $LUV, $KO, $INTC, $AXP, and $VZ.

Some stocks here may be a good buy, for example, $T is a great dividend stock and is trading at near March lows. Earnings will tell how this year went for $T and what to expect for 2020 last quarter.

It will be a difficult week to trade, between dollar strength and S&P choppiness, there’s a lot of indecision in the market.
One important thing to have in mind, and these can change all the bullish narrative is that Jerome Powell speaks tomorrow (Monday).

Earnings whispers

WTI
Last week WTI broke out from a downtrend.
Despite all the bullish news, cuts, storms, inventory withdrawals, and overall bullish sentiment, the price didn’t manage to break the $41 resistance.

I still think, as explained last week. All movements are connected to crude demand. Planes are in the ground, cruise ships are stationed on ports, people are working from home, etc. The demand isn’t there.

Technically, WTI is creating a nice trading channel.
My idea, wait and watch if it breaks the newfound trend line and rejects the top of the channel. The idea is to trade it down to the bottom of the channel.

Oanda WTI CFD

Gold
The technical setup on gold is as bullish as it can be.
It´s a clear breakout from a bullish pennant. That being said, the breakout didn’t convince me. It was very low key and rejected the nearest resistance.
Gold’s latest movements are very closely correlated to the dollar which is gaining momentum and strength.

I am very bullish on gold and silver long term, although I would like a retest on the yellow box.

Oanda CFD Gold
Market Gauge Gold Dashboard


SP500
The last two trading days were insane, the reversals on the end were epic.
Last Friday SP500 closed rejecting $3500, to be fair $3500 was my last week target for it, and from then I would expect a clear rejection.

If somehow we break the pattern, we could easily see $3200 (200 DMA). I sort of dropped my bearish bias because no one will let the marker drop, a lot. And some volatility is expected because of the up and coming US elections.

Be careful trading the SP500 the daily ranges are insane.

Oanda SP500 CFD
Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Dollar
I think that here lies the key to the market.
US markets keep being the most liquid and better yield market available globally and guess what, in order to invest in them, you need dollars.

DXY just broke out from the downtrend channel and If this continues to ride we can expect an equities and precious metals pullback.

Also, watch the correlation between the US10Y yield Vs Dollar. Higher yields and lower dollar = good for equities, and vice versa.

USD CoT
DXY

Other Notes
Sentiment turning bullish, again.

Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Tape volume is stagnated.

Market Gauge Market Tape Dashboard

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– Worlds Flash PMIs
– USD Fed Powell Speaks
– CNY Retail sales / Unemployment
– EUR Consumer confidence

12 -16 October 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Back from vacations.
Took some time to read up on the market and politics, things remain the same. Uncertainty reigns.

This breather from the markets and all things market related worked like a breeze of fresh air. I returned with an open mind and my bias is reset.

Next Week:
Here we go again, a new earnings season is about to kick off. This is going to be interesting because we already had a round of massive stimulus across the world. How companies behaved during these last 4 months will reveal a lot of what can happen until the end of the year.

What I will be watching like a Hawk:

Airlines: Despite all major airlines already have received bailout packages, I think It wasn’t enough. A new round of fresh cash injections will be needed, and coming winter the pandemic travel will get chaotic. Every sneeze or cough will be a covid alert trigger. On the bright side, when the companies report the stocks will probably tank and would be bough on the dip. Airlines like Delta, Lufthansa, Air France, American Airlines, etc won’t go anywhere. They will be bailed out, merged, or restructured. So It´s clearly a buy on the dip moment.

Banks: Especially EU banks, they have been hammered for months, we are taking -50% moves on the stock price. They will provide buy the dip moments across the chart. I am watching Natixis, Banco Santander, Intesa Sanpaolo, and BNP Paribas.

Energy: Major oil has been hammered. Despite WTI rise, oil companies have been the market dog. They are lagging a lot. I am watching major oil like XOM, CSX, RDS, the safest way to play this is through XLE or if you are a European based investor like I am, SXLE.

Earnings Whispers

WTI
Despite the bearish bias on world consumption, the prices of crude futures keep on rising. Inventories keep on drawing down but the world consumption isn´t increasing and with planes, cruises, and a lot of people working from home, the demand didn’t catch up to the supply.

One thing to have in consideration, futures spreads are trading positive, what that means, long term futures are trading at a premium related to the current contract, which indicates market interest.

Market Gauge Dashboard – WTI
Market Gauge Dashboard – Futures curve WTI

Gold
Gold just broke out, again. The massive macro narrative plus the dollar weakness is pushing gold to the moon.

The bull in me really wants a pullback to the $1800 region to buy more.
I will be watching closely the dollar movements next week.

Market Gauge Dashboard – Gold
Oanda Gold CFD daily


SP500
The gift that keeps on giving. Forget bearish bias and fundamentals, this is an all-new market. New rules, ways of trading, and reason.

SP500 broke again and as I suspected and shared a few posts ago, It will revisit the 3500 level.

I am not trading It actively as It is very difficult for me to trade movements I don’t feel comfortable with, despite having the right ideas.

Last few weeks, CME raised the limit of the future up & down, and brokers such us IBRK raised the margins requirements. Market players are preparing for a lot of volatility for the weeks ahead of US elections so we should too.

SP500 Mean reversions for the last 365 trading days
Market Gauge Dashboard – SP500

Dollar
I couldn’t be more wrong about the dollar. It has been beaten and kicked left and right. That being said, I think It´s time for a bounce.
Check the CoT´s for USD, EUR, and GBP:

Both EUR and GBP are crowded long trades and USD started to get some traction on the long side.
If the dollar manages to strike back with a vengeance, you can expect a major commodities pullback and maybe stocks will follow too.

Important note, both EUR and GBP are on top of their mega channels:

Oanda EURUSD / GBP USD Weekly

Other Notes
Insiders keep on selling their bags

Open Insider

Interesting Articles

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-money-supply-precious-metal-production-2020/

#35: Leigh Goehring On The Generational Opportunity In Energy Stocks Today

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR ZEW / Industrial production
– USD CPI / PPI / Jobs / Empire State Man. Index / Philly Fed Man. Index / Retail sales / Industrial production

21 – 25 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

Vacations at last.
A friendly reminder to take time off, take care of yourself.
Enjoy all your hard work, spend time with family and friends.
Share your good fortune and create memories.

I will be on vacation for two weeks, the reports and free data will keep being generated automatically.
I might post a few things on twitter because the addiction to keep information flowing is real.
Have fun, I think it will be a crazy week

Mexico Vacations & Package Deals | Travelzoo

14 – 18 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Another range-bound week of big ups and downs leading to nowhere.
I have been trading less and less, I don´t feel comfortable at all with this current market conditions. I will share an article from Jesse Felder where he talks particularly about this.

Still long $AG, $LVO.MI and Gold (CFD).
As I shared last week, due to negative correlations with WTI, Tankers were primed for a bump. Caught both $STNG and $TNK, both positions sold on Friday’s close.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    I don´t think the last drop was it, I think we still have one last push before the last dance.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    It´s holding, very correlated with DXY, watch both.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I will keep it short, It will be a crazy week. A lot of technical setups for major indexes and commodities may conclude /break this week.
I don´t plan on trading heavy, I will keep my approach of laying back and let the market do Its thing.
Still eying the cannabis industry, check last week´s post.
https://eod-notes.com/2020/09/06/7-11-september-2020-trading-week-preparation/

Also, vacations are coming so It´s time to detach, 100%.

WTI
It bumped as planed to ~$40 and kept going down.
I believe It still has plenty on the downside to go, but technically a more significant bounce is due.
It triggered a pivot reversal (purple triangle) and we may see $40 again.
For mind term, I think we will see $25 WTI again.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

Another thing to have into consideration, in the last few weeks, inventories have been negative and the price has gone nowhere. Last week, the inventories gained a bit and fueled a sell.

Spreads are also widening.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

Gold
Technically gold is super bullish, the bull flag pattern even seems to have triggered. This being said, I will watch the DXY before making a move on gold. DXY has been beaten to a pulp and It might come back to life with a revenge thirst.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
DXY daily

The spreads on gold futures #1-#12 and #1-#6 are also rising, the spread between #1-#12 is +$200 wide. This is insane and it will close, eventually.

Market Gauge futures curves dashboard
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


SP500
So, the mighty spuz.
This is a bull flag, technically this is super bullish.
I don’t think we are done with more upside and the spuz might retest ~3500 level.
Fundamentals are aligning again with super bearish strength. It´s a no-trade for me due to uncertainty.
A lot of SP500 constituents are red on the bull-bear lines (255 DMA), and the rally is being fueled by tech.
As tech is turning bearish, make your conclusions on how this house of cards will unfold.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Interesting Articles
Jesse Felder article mentioned above- https://thefelderreport.com/2020/09/09/master-the-art-of-doing-nothing/?mc_cid=2fc733fc7c&mc_eid=2fd1a72551

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– JPY Tertiary Industry Activity
– CNY Industrial production / Unemployment rate
– GBP Unemployment rate / Cash rates
– EUR ZEW
– USD Empire State Man. Index / Industrial production / Retail sales / FOMC / Jobs / Philly Fed Index

7 – 11 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a way to close the week, Thursday and Friday were absolutely brutal!
SP500 went entered the elevator down and broke a very important trend.
Three new stocks were added to SP500 and 3 when out, shocker (Ironically) Tesla wasn’t added.

August is finally finished and so it is my “To-do list”. I won’t be 100% on the markets during September also because It is usually my vacation month. It´s fine for me to be in and out, I find it quite refreshing because when I am game, I am 120% focused. I need this time to unwind.

Still long $AG, $LVO.MI and Gold CFD

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Entered the elevator down, It could be it? I have my doubts.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed below trend.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains keep having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I don’t believe this is “It” for the market, people won’t let the market die this easy. As so, this week I will share some ideas of what can pump next before the “last dance”.

One thing to have in mind, the US Misery Index is still very, very high.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_misery_index

WTI
As I suspected, the movement was brutal and to the downside.
Inventories have been in withdrawal for weeks and the price was really numb, which shows a lack of interest in WTI.

Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

It´s really hard to trade crude at the moment, consumption isn´t on a normal level and the fear of a second lockdown still looms.
I believe a retest of the $40 level is more than possible early this week, but the path of least resistance is still down.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Another thing to have in consideration, during my correlation studies, I found out TYX (Treasury Yield 30 Years Yield) usually preludes the crude futures movements, and they are pointing down.

Crude Futures Vs TYX

Gold
Gold finally broke and closed below the up trendline.
Fundamentals for gold are better than good, but the technicals are very extended, and further consolidation is healthy for a future move up.
I will be buyer, hand over fist if we touch the yellow box.

Oanda CFD Gold daily

Another thing to have in mind is the correlation between the VIX and Gold, If you are with me betting on a VIX surge, usually when VIX surges, gold comes down, closing the correlation gap.

VIX Vs Gold


SP500
Last week ETSY, TER, and CTLT were added, and HRB, KSS and COTY were removed from SP500.
Early Monday you can expect a pump of the added stocks and a massive dump of the dropped ones.
The surprise to a lot of people was the Tesla as a no show on the added list, this might escalate the Tesla dump.

Technically SP500 closed below a major technical level and we will probably retest last Friday lows.
This is It? I don’t think so, there is still a lot of dumb money in the market and a lot of sectors to pump.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily

More than 40% of SP500 are below the bull/bear line which should be a huge indicator for anyone that trades based on trend.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Tankers
The correlation between Tankers and Baltic dry Index usually has a delay.
When BDI pumps, Tanker stocks blow off and when BDI dumps, stocks rise.
It´s weird in a way, but the higher the tanker stocks close their contracts for shipping, the bigger the profits are in the end.

https://stockcharts.com/acp/?s=%24BDI

The stocks I am watching for a pump are $STNG, $TNK, $EURN and $DSSI.
It will happen when it happens, I am using the SAR as a trigger to buy.

https://www.investing.com/

Cannabis
Yup, this green bad boy. I use a, let´s call it trick to analyze this space. I made a custom index of the most traded pot stocks. If you use trading view you can copy this:
NYSE:CGCNASDAQ:TLRYNASDAQ:SNDLNYSE:STZNYSE:HEXOOTC:EMHTFOTC:ACRGF*CSE:CURA
Technically this puppy is primed to pump. I believe we still have one last dance before the SP500 dies and pot will be one of the last girls to leave the dance.

NYSE:CGCNASDAQ:TLRYNASDAQ:SNDLNYSE:STZNYSE:HEXOOTC:EMHTFOTC:ACRGF*CSE:CURA

Other Notes
Safe havens:

Market Gauge Safe havens dashboard

Gap between NDX and VXN

NDX Vs VXN

BTC Vs Yen, usually Yen and BTC move inversely, let´s see what happens on the Monday open after the BTC dump.

BTC Vs YEN

Sentiment, go bears go!

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

DXY weakness across the chart.

Market Gauge FX dashboard

Interesting Articles

SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally
https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-richest-families-2020/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-slashes-stake-in-wells-fargo-51599255383

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
EUR GER industrial production / EUR Sentix investor sentiment / GDP / employment numbers and cash rates
JPY GDP
CAD Cash rates
USD Jobs numbers / PPI

31 AUG – 4 SEP 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Another great week on the get stuff done side.

Re-watched Rome, what a TV-show, how could HBO canceled it.

Found an awesome free feed with stocks short volume, I am trying to make some fun stuff with the data, you can expect some new stuff on the site soon.

Trade wise:
Long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Well, I still believe in this but … SP500 and Nasdaq100 are going full-on bananas.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Both silver and gold are trapped in a range, more below.
    Still long term insanely bullish on gold
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are rallying left and right, commodities are having a field day with DXY weakness.

Next Week:
More earnings, curious about ZOOM and Macys.
I will keep working on the stock’s short volume dataset. August is my to-do full steam go ahead month of the year. The month to do all the boring stuff and disconnect from trading as much as possible. Take a breather and discover/learn other skills.

This works great for me.
Trade wise. We are in a conundrum, stocks are very expensive, gold is very expensive, crude is doing nothing, the dollar is dying, Euro is too expensive, Yen is on vacations. It´s like we are stuck in a never-ending cycle fueled by the Fed and central banks.

I will keep watching mainly gold, really important how the pennant resolves, more below.

Earnings whispers

WTI
More of the same thing, still inside the same range.
Despite the hurricanes on the Mexican Golf treating refineries, the price remained stall.
On the other hand, RBOB ballooned, which makes me believe that the market is counting on a supply issue on refined and distilled products, a lack of demand for crude as refineries are closing.

Stocks have been in a drawdown for a few weeks without any impact on prices.

Things are in a range, It´s a clear no trade zone for me. I think the best move is going to be massive, up or down. I will wait and see.

Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The demand for gold is no joke and premiums are still very high.
I can’t say this enough, long term I am insanely bullish on gold.

Although, short term and technically we are very extended and we never retested the previous levels.
The setup gold is printing right now, is a bull pennant.
In theory, the pennant broke out already but I want to see follow-through. It´s still risky to long gold.
Last week the price action went full bananas up and down with massive swings which indicates indecision on the market, just read the last Thursday tape on the Fed inflation announcement. The market is divided and I want to play with the winning side, so I wait to see who scores first.
Keep an eye on $GVZ $w8 level, usually gold reject it.

Market Gauge – Gold dashboard


SP500
There’s really not much to say, This is just insane. We are at record PE levels and the last 7 candles are 7 straight green ones.

Market Gauge – SP500 dashboard

On the CoT report, longs reached the average line.

CoT dashboard sp500

Overall market volume keeps decreasing.

Market Gauge – Volume dashboard

DXY
This bad boy isn´t getting enough attention. This is the key to all the market riddles.
Technically DXY is very oversold and due to a rebound.

One thing to have in consideration is that DXY is 58% exposed to EUR (link), which is having a massive rally Everyone is long the EUR and It´s the new crowded bull trade. Some on the DXY weakness is due to this because Vs other Majors the dollar is actually doing ok.

Check this chart DXY Vs costume DXY ( If you are using trading view platform you can copy-paste this ticker)

50USDEUR^0.3384USDJPY^0.1861USDGBP^0.1346USDAUD^0.0765USDCAD^0.0613USDCNY^0.0575USDCHF^0.0487USDHKD^0.0468USDKRW^0.0267USDINR^0.0235

What happens next to the dollar will have big repercussions on the market, stocks, gold, and commodities are benefiting the massive down movement on DXY If the trend reverts we might see a correction after all.

DXY Vs costume DXY
DXY daily chart
CoT DXY dashboard

Other Notes
Sentiment

Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

Volatility, no one, absolutely no one is shorting volatility

Market Gauge – Vol dashboard

EU futures, only DAX is pumping, maybe because of tech?

Market Gauge – EU futures dashboard

Interesting Articles

I lost 10 grand in 10 minutes’: Sports stars become traders in lockdown: https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/within-10-minutes-i-lost-10-grand-sports-stars-become-traders-in-lockdown-20200825

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– CNY/USD/EUR/GBP Manufacturing nad Services PMIs
– USD Jobs/ ADP Jobs
– AUD GDP

24 – 28 August 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Had a great week, got a bunch of stuff done. More database and code migrations and added more free stuff to the blog. Check the “Data tables” section.

Trading wise, still long $AG and $LVO. $AG is a strong hands kind of situation.

Longed $GOLD (Oanda CFD) according to last week’s plan. Entry @ $1954.70 and got stopped @$1981.99, ~$25 per contract, not shabby but wasn´t the plan.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    New ATH, not too shabby. The divergence between the stock market and the real economy is widening and It´s scary.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Healthy correction got long, got stopped. Next week will reevaluate, I am hoping for better opportunities to buy lower.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
More earnings this week. A lot of SP500 companies are reporting a shrink on earnings and signaling for future guidance with caution.
The market keep on rallying despite all the chaos. Countries closing again for corona fears, California wildfires, Bielorrusia chaos, US elections shit show, etc..
The market seems detached from reality.

This week I will keep focusing on the to-do list. I have a few more things to finish on the code and I want to re-watch one of the best TV shows ever, Rome.

I will only keep an eye on gold and silver.

Earnings Whispers

WTI
More than two months of pure consolidation. This can totally go both ways, but the next movement is certainly an explosion. The doubt is If It´s up or down.

The spreads are back on track and the Brent – WTI is on the down-low again.
This is going to be interesting. I honestly don’t know where the next move is.
I highly recommend this blog for fundamental and macro research about crude.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/

Oanda CFD WTI daily
Market Gauge – WTI Dashboard

Gold
The correction came fast and furious, although I think this is not over.
I would like to see a new retest of $1800. Technically is not very probable but, other factors kick in.
Gold indicators are still stretched and need some relief. $GVZ is having a hard time passing $28, and every time $GVZ reaches $28, gold is retracing.
Any dip below $1800 is a buy for me.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
Market Gauge – Gold Dashboard

SP500
Well, what a bag of air. This thing keeps running on fumes. What an engine.
We just reached new ATH this week with a very low volume.
Technically we are still in trend, bull trend.
A lot of constituents are now on a bear trend, below 250DMA.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Market Gauge – SP500 Dashboard
US Total Volume Vs SPX Vs US Total ADV/DEC

DXY
This escalated quickly, I didn’t expect so much weakness on the dollar.
FX majors and commodities are having a blast.
Despite being on a downtrend channel the dollar seems to rip for a bump. This level is being defended pretty heavily. Let´s see how this plays out. A rise in the dollar would further weak gold and silver. This may be the catalyst for a deeper retrace.
DXY shorts keep on stacking, maybe It´s an already too crowded trade.

DXY daily
CoT Dashboard – DXY

$TSLA
This is not a hatting post on $TSLA, but for me $TSLA is the poster boy for the bubble we are living on the market.
Just check this tree charts:

$TSLA top drawdown periods
Underwater plot
$TSLA returns

The volatility on returns is insane. This company produces bad cars, It´s not profitable without some heavy financial engineering and Elon behaves like a looney toon.
Things will end up badly for $TSLA holders and I fear a lot of people are putting their hard earn money in smoke.
Everything on this market is overvalued, but $TSLA, boy oh boy. It´s the epitome of over evaluation.

Other Notes
C- suite keeps on selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Interesting Articles

MacroVoices #233 Jesse Felder: How Long Can Stock Market Mania Continue?

The End Game Ep. 6 – Lacy Hunt

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
USD – Consumer Confidence / Richmond Man. Index / Jobs / Fed Powell speaks / Chicago PMI
CAD – GDP
CHF – Credit Swiss Economic Expectations / KOF Economic Barometer
EUR – German Ifo / German Gfk
CNY – CB Leading Index

17 -21 August 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of free stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
I had a great week.
Finally, my trading systems came out of beta and are now fully Live.
All the free data and signals are now provided by the new live environments with the new dedicated databases.

I dedicated very little to the markets this week, I was on a mission to have this ready.

I am still long $AG, which I am watching very closely. A close below $11 is a stop loss for me. Maybe this correction on Silver isn´t done yet.

Stil long $LVO too, volatility is being suppressed, but when it pops, It will be a hard pop. Accumulating is the best thing to do in my opinion.

Added a new section to the site, Data tables.
This section contains three new tables with:
– ETF price Vs NAV
– SP500 constituents price targets
– Nasdaq100 constituents price targets

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    We touched the all-time highs on SPX cash session and immediately rejected it.
    Maybe that’s all we needed to start rolling over.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    As I thought last week, a massive correction happened, I don´t think the bull run is over, But I would like to see a new retest on the last week lows.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
More earnings, watching closely the Chinese ADRs, Target, and Nvidia.

Earnings Whispers

There is a lot of action happening on the FX market too, the yen looks really strong and needs to play catch up to Gold. On the other hand, the EUR looks extended and Its fairy tale looks that It will end badly with a lot of bag holders.

WTI
We just had the fourth straight week of inventories drawdowns and the price went nowhere. This might be a signal.
I honestly, fundamentally don’t know where the path leads, but when it´s decided It will happen fast.

Market Gauge – Crude Dashboard

Technically the Pitchfork trend was broken but the rising wedge is still intact.
The $42.30 level on Oanda WTI CFD is acting as a strong resistance and triggering a bunch of bearish oscillator divergencies.
On the daily chart, this is clearly a no trading zone. We need to watch what happens next.

Oanda WTI CFD daily chart

Gold
Last week correction happened faster than I thought It would happen.
This opportunity is clearly a buy, but I am betting on a retest of the last week’s lows. If that doesn’t happen, a break and retest of the $1954 on Oanda CFD is a buy.

Oanda Gold CFD daily

Miners
Things are looking dicey for miners. Gold and Silver are retracing and miners are feeling It.
The miners I usually track entered in SAR sell signals.

Miners Dashboard SAR

On the bight side, The up trend is still intact and strong.

Miners Dashboard 200EMA Vs 21EMA

SP500
The test of the all-time highs was a no brainer. I have been talking about this for a few weeks. If a sell-off is going to happen, now It´s probably the time.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

The SPX cash session chart have three massive gaps that are magnets to fill If the price starts to rollover.

SPX Cash Sessions

41% of the Index constituents are still below the 50DMA.
PE ratios are back on the highs.

Market Gauge – SPX Dashboard

Overall market tape action is decreasing by the day and stocks keep reaching new all-time highs. That´s fishy.

Market Gauge – Market Tape

Vol
I am not one to TA the VIX, but it looks that is coiling for a pop.

Market Gauge – VOL Dashboard

FX
USD and YEN CoTs look really interesting, USD shorts keep staking and YEN longs are increasing.
UUP is falling off a cliff too.
92.80 is a very important support for DXY, If it fails, the next big one is at 88.
Hold your hat if it breaks.
One thing to keep in mind, the correlation between YEN and Gold points to Yen to go much higher.

CoT Dashboard USD
CoT Dashboard YEN
UUP – Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
DXY weekly chart
YEN and Gold correlation

EURUSD is at the top of the downtrend channel. This channel exists since 2008 so It´s a very serious channel to have into consideration.
The long EURUSD is also a bit crowded, this will end up badly for a lot of people.

Oanda EURUSD weekly

Other Notes
Safe Havens keep rising.

Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

Insiders keep selling while main street keeps buying.

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Nasdaq100 Vs VXN jaws look scary for longs.

NDX Vs VXN

JXY Vs VIX correlation, points VIX to go much higher

YEN Index/ VIX ratio VS SP500

Interesting Articles

Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– Flash PMIs
– USD Jobs data / FOMC
– OPEC Meetings

10-14 August 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Last week I told I am taking the all month sort of off.
I will be in front of the screen, but not trading or searching for opportunities.

Every year I postpone as much as I can of doing boring tasks, so every year I take the entire August month to do these tasks.

This week I finished the host migration, everything went smoothly.
The blog was backed up and deployed nicely and the dashboard can now be found at http://tanos-trader.eod-notes.com/

Still long $AG and $LVO.
Admission of guilt, I made a few scalp trades on the Portuguese stock market.
Some companies were a target for a takeover and the priced pumped hard.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SONC.LS
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SONI.LS

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Started to turn early on the week but finished strong. I still believe the path of least resistance is down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed above $1740 may be a good sign.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
More earnings:

Earnings Whispers

Special notes for Nio, Cisco, Barrick Gold, Draft Kings, and Farfetch

Overall, markets are pretty much in raging bull mode. There’s no point to fight this movement. I am very bearish based on the “real” numbers but I won’t open a short until I see a true rollover.
There’s plenty of opportunities in the market, and not making a trade, is also a trade.

WTI
There are not a lot of interest in WTI at the moment. OI is decreasing a lot every week.
On the other hand, despite not having a lot of OI, the price is hanging on.
Technically, it looks weak. It had a major rejection and it is testing the bottom of the rising wedge and the pitchfork.

Oanda CFD WTI daily
TANOS Analytics WTI Vs OI

Other note, the correlation between Crude futures and TYX, keeps aiming for a lower price per barrel.

TANOS Anaçytics Crude oil futures Vs TYX

Gold
What a bull run. Last Friday, gold closed lower. I don’t see it as an end of a massive gold bull run but as a correction that´s due.

DXY shorts are staking on the CoT report, despite last Friday dead cat bounce.
DXY may have more upside on the bounce and Gold might retrace a little bit more. I see it as organic and healthy.

TANOS Dashboard CoT USD

Another thing to consider is the GVZ $28 level, usually Gold struggles to break above it.

TANOS Market Gauge – Gold dashboard


SP500
We are going to test the all-time highs probably. Eight straight green days with very big ranges.
The trend is still up and untouched.

Oanda CFD sp500 daily

Overall components are still above 250DMA

TANOS Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

One thing to take into consideration, the market tape has been decreasing substantially for the last few weeks.

TANOS Market Gauge Market Tape Dashboard

Bitcoin
What a run, very nice move. I am not a bitcoiner, but I recognize It´s becoming an asset class. I own some since 2016 and used to trade it heavily.
Maybe It´s the beginning of something new, a new trend. Short term, I think the upside is capped.

TANOS Crypto Dashboard BTCUSD

Other Notes
Safe havens are pumping and moving in unison:

TANOS Marker Gauge Safe Havens Dashboard

Insiders are selling hand over fist, everything is very expensive.

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Interesting Articles

The consequences of ‘infinite money’ – Chris Irons talks with Alpha Trade
https://bit.ly/30vq6BA

Why Investors Keep Losing Money Betting Against The Hong Kong Dollar Peg
https://bit.ly/2PuQEwk

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-demand-insight/end-game-for-oil-opec-prepares-for-an-age-of-dwindling-demand-idUSKCN24T0KT

https://www.rigzone.com/news/ihs_markit_raises_oil_price_forecast-07-aug-2020-162951-article

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– ZEW
– USD Jobs data / CPI / PPI and Mortage delinquencies
– CNY Industrial production
– AUD Jobs data