30 Dec 2019 – 03 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
It´s a holiday week so my trading will be restricted and almost risk exposed free.
This time I will try share a few ideias I am monitoring for 2020.

GOLD
Repeating last week warning:
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures.

USD
DXY looks ready to die, eyeing low 90s.
A new argument making the mix shows EM countries are prefering to emit debt in EUR then USD. This is a big shift. See files (https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAId-LpqI9xjwJ5V_-yg507q94nZSxvOC9hrYjQCNj1XJrMhIYk4).
This for the all year of 2020 can be very bullish to EUR and commodities.
Commodities being what I am focusing the most.
Playing commodities via Futures or CFDs can be expensive so I am using ETFs such us $MOO, $WOOD, $GLD, $COPX and $JJG.

Energy / Oil
A huge squeeze of this sector is about to happen. The market is rotating nicely to value and XLE is preparing to shine.
WTI looks like to want to play catch up with SPX.
I am placing a few bets on some coal stocks too, they look beatdown. At some point some relief is due to happen because the cash balance and assets on those companies are pretty good.

Market
I already said this a few times. The market looks toppy to me but as a trader you have to be able to shift and change you opinion based on what you see/get.
So I am not saying I am a bull/bear. Some stocks look toppy but there are a few sectors that look prime to shine, I believe shipping is one of them. IMO2020 is going to kick in, and historically when chaos enters the shipping markets, It rallies hard. For this, check the BALTIC Dry index for more clues https://stockcharts.com/acp/?s=%24BDI

Some small bets across the market I am looking: $WISA, $EROS, $ACB, $PLUG, $IDEX

Events:
Monday
CHF – KOF Economic Barometer
USD – Chicago PMI

Tuesday
USD – CB Consumer confidence
CNY – Manufacturing PMI
CNY – Non Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday

Thursday
CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
EUR – Manufacturing PMI
CAD – Manufacturing PMI
USD – Manufacturing PMI
GBP – Manufacturing PMI
USD – Jobs

Friday
USD – ISM PMI
USD – FOMC
CHF – Manufacturing PMI

23 – 27 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
It´s a holiday week so my trading will be restricted and almost risk exposed free

SPX
Between us, It´s extended. A pullback is due despite I am being a bull or a bear.
If you pair the SPX charts with a distribution Wyckoff chart you will see some similarities, we are at UTAD phase.


EURGBP
So I am looking to long EURGBP. It looks like it wants the break the downside channel. Williams Alligator It´s almost biting. And It bounced on a nice support.
Now that all the brexit shenanigans are done, I am looking for the pound to retrace some of the crazy gains.

GOLD
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures.

Energy / Oil
A huge squeeze of this sector is about to happen. The market is rotating nicely to value and XLE is preparing to shine.
WTI looks like to want to play catch up with SPX

Events:
Monday
CAD – GDP
USD – Durable Goods
USD- Home sales

Tuesday
USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday

Thursday
USD – Job claims
JPY – Unemployment rate

Friday
CHF – Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

16 – 20 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Well, this week I am looking into VACATIONS!
Old material still applies watch SPX for Trump tweets and confirmation of the china deal fase 1.

A minha biblioteca: “A bolsa para iniciados” de Fernando Braga de Matos

Em pleno século 21 e com uma velocidade e facilidade de acesso a informação, eu continuo a achar que se estamos a procura de informação em concreto, os livros são a nossa melhor opção.

Aparte de todo o conhecimento empírico que pudemos absorver, conseguimos ainda absorver a experiência de quem o escreve.
Assim, com este primeiro post, vou partilhar alguns livros da minha biblioteca e explicar o que significaram para mim.

O livro “A bolsa para iniciados”, foi a minha primeira introdução ao mercado da bolsa. Como podem ver pela imagem, reli o livro várias vezes, tomei notas, marquei várias passagens.
É o livro que recomendo a todos os amigos e conhecidos que querem começar esta aventura no mercado da bolsa.

Sei que o autor tem outro livro mais avançado, mas ai já preferi ir para “outras praias” escritas em inglês, que partilharei num próximo post.

9 – 13 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
The market is still doing crazy stuff and reacting violently to news and Trump tweets. Because It’s the end of the year I like to reduce all my exposure to the markets. I like to spent my holidays carefree.
That being said. Here is what I am looking at:

SPX
Well It was a weird week. A full round trip no ATH town. Will watch what happens on the red box

USDJPY
JPY Futures look strong. On the daily, it broke out from a falling wedge. On the weekly it closed as a bullish engulf
USDJPY broke down of a rising wedge and is forming a H&S. On the weekly it closed as a bearish Engulf.

Events:
Monday
JPY Final GDP numbers & Economy watchers
EUR Sentix Investors Confidence

Tuesday
JPY Prelim machine orders / BSI Manufacturing Index
EUR Industrial Production numbers / EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
GBP GDP numbers / Manufacturing Production

Wednesday
FOMC
JPY Core Machinery Orders

Thursday
CHF SECO Forecasts
EUR CPI/PPI
US CPI/PPI
JPY Tenkan Index

Friday
US Retail sales

2 – 6 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
I really don’t like to trade major economic news, the market does crazy stuff so I prefer to wait and do my trades after the news.

SPX
Started to rollover, I would like to see a pullback to the 30dMR
The week is packed with economical data, it will be a bumpy ride

SPX500 CFD from Oanda

STOX5X0 (https://www.tradingview.com/x/IOHmowoa/)
Same as SPX, might accelerate if germany Manufacturing PMI goes bananaz

DXY / EURUSD / GBPUSD
Euro implied vol has been dead for a while.
GBP looks ready to test May´s highs
DXY looks ready to die on the weekly close with a doji candle

DXY Index

NOS.LS
The support is holding but I would like to see the gap below filled

NOS.LS

FB
Friday closed looked weak a little consolidation wouldn’t hurt

FB

WTI / NATGAS / XLE
All energy comp got slaughtered on friday, I am watching closely for a bounce and being an OPEC week might help

Events:
Monday
Euro zone , China, US, JPY and GBP Manufacturing PMIs

Tuesday

Wednesday
Euro zone , China, US, JPY and GBP Services PMIs
US ADP Non Farm Jobs

Thursday
EUR Final Employment numbers
US Jobs numbers
OPEC

Friday
OPEC
US Jobs numbers