27 – 31 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
This week is going to be insane. A lot of news and new data, and important earnings results. It will be a nail biting week.


GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
Buy it, long term perspective, start accumulating.
(no charts needed as I have been posting a lot of those )

SP500
Started correcting. This week will be packed. AAPL,MSFT,AMZN,TSLA earnings.
Chicago PMI, Advance GDP, Fed funds. It’s insane. It will be a crazy ride.
More than half of the Index stocks are already below their 50DMA.

WTI
WTI/SPX ratio is pricing oil at $75.
Things look crazy and the coronavirus news was a black swan on the Market.
Despite all of this, Oil still have to play catch up to SPX

VIX
SPX and VIX correlations tend to close, and when it happens the SPX drops hard.
VSTOXX/VIX spread already crossed zero on last Friday´s drop.

European Indexes
All European indexes are far away from their YTD mean reversion.
If the sell off starts to gain track, this are good levels to start watching

EURGBP
This cookie is going for a ride this week.
Fed rates looking to be unchanged with a hawkish tone.
And BOE looking dovish.
This pair without doubt is going for a ride.

Events:
Monday
EUR – German IFO
CNY – CB Leading Index
Earnings: BYND, AK, CAT

Tuesday
USD – Durable goods / CB Leading Index / Richmond Man. Index
Earnings: NFLX,IBM

Wednesday
AUD – CPI
JPY – Consumer Confidence
EUR – German Gfk climate sentiment
USD – Fed fund rates
Earnings: TSLA, MSFT,FB,BABA,BA,MACD,T,MA

Thursday
CHF – KOF economic barometer
EUR – Unemployment rate
GBP – Rates
USD – Advance GDP / Jobs claims
JPY – Tokio CPI / Unemployment rate / Prelim. Industrial production / Retail sales
Earnings: AMZN,PINS,NOKIA,GE,UPS,V,PLUG,KO,VZ

Friday
GBP – Gfk consumer confidence
CNY – Man. PMI / Non Man. PMI
EUR – Flash GDP / Flash CPI
CAD – GDP
USD – Chicago PMI
Earnings: XOM,CVX,PSX,HON,CI

20 – 24 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Well, another week same stuff. Gold, SPX, WTI, earnings and a special eye on commodities and VIX.


GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
Buy it, long term perspective, start accumulating.
My plan is to start buying on the orange box on small sizes and make full buys if it touches the green box.
Bare in mind I have been buying gold for a few weeks so my average entry is much lower.

SP500
Well, It’s mooning.
Don’t fight the tape.
I honestly don’t feel the SPX as more fire, though It keeps on pumping.
So I will just sit idle in my hands waiting for signals I can understand .
It´s above bull/bear line and triggered a bull MACD cross.

WTI
It´s holding strong. Inside the ascending triangle.
The target from the ratio stills $74 and as the target from the ascending triangle breakout. If the SPX keeps on pumping expect oil to pump too.

VIX
Many people are against doing TA on the VIX, well what I like to do is to use the VIX to map the market

Events:
Monday
JPY – Revised Industrial Production

Tuesday
JPY – BOJ rates
GBP – Unemployment rates
EUR – German ZEW & EUR ZEW
CAD – Manufacturing sales
Earnings: NFLX,IBM

Wednesday
CAD – CPI & Rates decision
Earnings: JNJ

Thursday
AUD – Jobs
EUR – rates decision
USD – CB Leading Index
AUD – Flash PMIs
Earnings: INTC,PG,SBUX

Friday
EUR / JPY / GBP – Flash PMIs
Earnings: AABV,AXP,SYF

13 – 17 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Crazy start for 2020.
The earnings season is starting and some hard truths may come to light.(I will share the companies I will follow for earnings)
War and impeachment are still swinging news left and right and markets react violently so take care and be bold. You can only be right if you take the trade.
That being said, engrave in your mind, you don’t know what you don’t know, act accordingly.


GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
Buy it, long term perspective, start accumulating.
My plan is to start buying on the orange box on small sizes and make full buys if it touches the green box.
Bare in mind I have been buying gold for a few weeks so my average entry is much lower.

SP500
This is a very tough cookie.
I don’t have any sell signals.
It’s above the bull/bear line, It’s on the upper bollinger band channel, It’s above the cloud, and looks that the trend is strong as hell.
On the other hand, It´s overbought, and earnings season might bring some instability to the market

WTI
This stuff looks bullish to me, I am still playing this as a catch up to the SP500.
And the all technical setup looks pretty bullish too, if the triangle pops It can go to $74.
Supporting this, WTI / SPY ratio prices WTI at $74 too.

Events:
Monday
GBP – Manufacturing Production

Tuesday
CNY – USD Denominated Balance
JPY – Economic watchers sentiment
USD – CPI
USD – CORE CPI
Earnings: C, WFC,DAL

Wednesday
JPY – Prelim. machinery tools
JPY – Prelim. machinery tools
EUR – Industrial production
USD – CORE PPI
USD – PPI
USD – Empire state manufacturing Index
USD – FOMC Govs speaking
US – China Trade deal phase one signing
Earnings: BAC,GS,BLK

Thursday
EUR – German final CPI
CAD – ADP Non farm employment change
USD – Core sales retail
USD – Retail sales
USD – Philly fed manufacturing index
USD – Unemployment claims
USD – Business inventories
USD – NAHB Housing Index
EUR – ECB Lagarde speaks
Earnings: BNY,MS

Friday
CNY – GDP
CNY – Industrial Production
CNY – Unemployment rate
GBP – Retails sales
EUR – Final CPI
EUR – Core CPI
USD – Industrial production
USD – UoM data
USD – Jolts jobs

A importância das correlações

Para mim, o factor de correlação é um dos mais substimados.

Durante as nossas sessões de trading, é normal assumirmos algumas posições longas / curtas em diferentes ativos sem nos preocuparmos em saber qual a sua correlação.

Como qualquer lição aprendida na vida de um trader, a mesma veio com um custo. 

Tinha setups quase perfeitos para negociar dois pares de FX, EURCHF e USDPLN.

EURCHF, estavamos numa altura de que o apetite para o risco era muito grande na zona euro, tinha feito o bounce perfeito na zona de suporte e estava dentro de um rising wedge no segundo impulso. Eram as circunstâncias quase perfeitas para ir longo. 

USDPLN, o zloty estava em caida a semanas, estava numa linha que parecia ter encontrado um suporte. Face a força que o Euro estava a ter esta semana, parecia uma excelente oportunidade para ir curto USDPLN

Ou seja no meio disto tudo, fui longo EURCHF e curto USDPLN com lotes completos pois a confiança era muita.

Poucas horas após colocar o trade, tive uma reunião de trabalho que não me permitiu estar a acompanhar as posições. Quando consegui voltar aos monitores apercebi-me que as minhas posições tinham atingido o stop loss. Fiquei um bocado perplexo pois na minha cabeça tinha os setups perfeitos. Foi então que a comentar com uns amigos que um deles me apresentou a famosa correlação entre ativos. 

O EURCHF esta inversamente correlacionado com o USDPLN. E o que é que isto significa? Bem, ao ir longo EURCHF e curto USDPLN, as duas posições movimentavam-se no mesmo sentido, ou seja o meu risco dobrou sem eu ter isso em conta. 

Foi então que me recomendaram o livro:

https://www.amazon.com/Intermarket-Analysis-Profiting-Relationships-Trading/dp/0471023299

As correlações são de facto muito importantes e usadas de forma inteligente podem ser mais uma ferramenta no cinto de um trader.

Por exemplo, o par EURAUD esta inversamente correlacionado com o SPX. Isto pode ser uma forma inteligente de usarmos alavancagem para negociar o SPX, pois existem várias corretoras com CFDs de forex.

Deixo aqui um exemplo de um quadro de correlação forex. 

A leitura é feita tendo em conta que:

valor entre 0 e 1, os pares movimentam-se no mesmo sentido.

valor entre 0 e -1, os pares movimentam-se no sentido inverso

Se quiserem consultar em realtime
https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools/fx-correlations-table/tool-details

6 – 10 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Well, what a crazy start for 2020 right?
I am exercising one of the most difficult skills I had to require to trade. Patience, patience to see the market move without doing nothing.
I learned by playing with fire I should only trade in an environment I know.
It´s not news that I think the SP500 is toppy and some stocks are on hyperbolic mode. A retrace is needed. I am not saying the “R” word (recession) but a pullback is due. That being said, with the war song playing, PMIs contracting again I don’t feel I have a clear read on the market so I am just observing.
That being said I am still long GOLD and OIL/Energy.

GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures. This is breaking out hard, a pullback might happen which I will use to buy gold sovereigns.

Energy / Oil
Same recommendations from the previous weeks. WTI will chase the SP500.
WTI is breaking up hard and the fear of war might pump it to the moon.
To be honest I don’t know when will be the right time to dive in if you are not already in because this ship as sailed and is going fast.

SP500
Well this is a though one.
Last friday to war fears the SP500 dropped more than 1% on the European session, but when the cash session started on the US the dip buyers came with a vengeance.
To be honest I dont know how this is going to play out. a bear divergence is forming and a MACD bear cross triggered. If a close below the trendline happens it might trigger some major shorts.
It´s going to be a week to exercise patience.
IG Weekend trading prices the Dow 66.5 points lower.

EURAUD
The setup looks pretty self explanatory and It´s negative correlated with the SP500

Events:
Monday
JPY – Manufacturing PMI
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – Services PMI
EUR – Sentix consumer confidence
USD – Services PMI

Tuesday
EUR- CPIs
USD – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI
USD – Factory Orders

Wednesday
JPY – Consumer Confidence
EUR – Germany factory orders
USD – ADP Non farm employment

Thursday
EUR – German Industrial Production
EUR – Unemployment rate
USD – Unemployment rate


Friday
EUR – French Industrial production
EUR – Italy Industrial production
CAD – Employment change
CAD – Unemployment rate
USD – Average Hourly Earnings
USD – Non farm employment change
USD – Unemployment rate