What I am looking at: I will take this week off. Sometimes, now and then a break is needed. Playing the markets can be very stressful and time consuming, everything happens on a fast pace. Once in a while a week off does wonders to the mind.
All Excel data will be updated. Mean Reversions, Time progressions, etc.
From last week: – Gold & Silver are doing great – GBPUSD dropped ~195 pips and got back up. I still hold the short, I think DXY will push much higher and break 100. UK economy should show some weekness on the months ahead. – APRN Blue Apron, The Puts worked great! – SPX & Stoxx50 drop on more bad news and quick V shape recoveries makes everyday a challenge
This being said, have a great week. Be patient and trade wiselly. On Wednesday there will be a new post sharing an R notebook.
What I am looking at: For starters, next week I wil ltake the week off so no trading Week prep. This week, as always, I am looking at SPX, WTI, GOLD and some FX Pairs. I am building an interest in natgas, last week close got me interested. The weekly candle close looks promising.
SPX Another week, another new ATH. I am growing conscious that the market is not taking things serious about the corona virus. Everyone is behaving like work as usual when the world´s supply chain is stopped for weeks. Bulls are back in town sentiment wise. And no sell signals were triggered yet, VIX spreads are OK, McClellan Oscillator is just chilling, no exhaustion on the charts
WTI Nice bounce on WTI at a critical level. I am afraid a possible OPEC cut won´t do much for crude price. The stocks are building and China demand is decreasing week by week. On the bright side, as the crude situation falls apart, American shale companies are great shorts.
GBP I know that last week things didn´t play out as I planned. I do belive the next numbers for GBP post Brexit will tend to be very bad. The country is divided and Economic numbers should start to show that.
GOLD This bad boy is going, and Silver is taking a ride on the side car. I stand by my call made a few weeks that said to buy any gold weakness.
Blue Apron APRN I don’t usually short stocks on earnings but blue apron looks ready to die. Competition is eating they meal left and right and things are not looking good. They report earnings on Wednesday, I bough puts.
Dropbox DBX I am not playing this one, earnings on Tuesday. Could storage is being traded like a commodity and big boys AMAZON, GOOGLE and MSFT are eating Dropbox´s lunch. They are selling more storage, integrated in their ecosystem for a fraction of the price.
Herballife HLF Well I have a very strong opinion about this. Just watch “Betting on zero” Documentary on Netflix. I am not a fan boy of Bill Ackerman but the man has a point.
Events: Monday JPY – Revised Industrial Production USD – Bank Holiday
Tuesday CNY – Foreign investiment ytd GBP – Avg earnings Index / Unemployment rate EUR – ZEW German Economic Sentiment/ ZEW Economic Sentiment CAD – Manufacturing sales m/m USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index / NAHB Housing Index JPY – Core Machinery orders m/m
Wednesday GBP – CPI/ PPI CAD – CPI USD – CPI / Building Permits / New Housing Starts
Thursday AUD – Jobs Data/ Flash Man. PMI / Flash Services PMI EUR – German Gfk consumer climate / German PPI / EUR Consumer confidence GBP – Retail sales / CBI Industrial Expectations USD – Philly Fed Index / Unemployment rates
My idea about the blog was to share my own content and ideas. But today, sharing some good content from other traders/creators with a friend a blog reader he suggested I should once in a while share some “good stuff” I found across the internet. So Knowledge Up Ticks was born.
The second share is a podcast. I am a huge fan of podcasts. Free knowledge with minimum effort? sign me up. This episode (https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-188-best-of-risk-management-pt-1/) from Chart with traders is just amazing, one of the hardest things for me as a trader is risk management. This 52 minutes episode is pure gold, being a part one episode, I hope the other parts are just us good.
What I am looking at: It will be an action packed week. A lot of earnings, crude being so volatile and gold & BTC looking juicy. Tuesday will be a roller coaster for GBP pairs watch closely EURGBP and GBPUSD
SPX It looks insane, stocks keep on pumping with so much market chaos. Don´t fight the tape, search for other markets where things looks more reasonable. Technically SPX don’t show any weakness which puts me in alert even more. TRIN points out a bearish sentiment. A break of the 3225 can open the flood gate to shorts.
WTI Things are looking grim for $WTI, on my twitter feed I posted a few charts that shows the weakness on the price action. New news are needed to save WTI from this slump. I will start buying as the 50 level is being defended with a stop on $49.
GBP Tuesday It will be a though day for GBP. It is already being hammered for the recent USD Strength. BXY broke the trend too. EURGBP looks primed for a retest of the 0.89s I wont play both pairs, I will probably take advantage of DXY strength to sell GBPUSD. Will watch for a DXY pullback to short GBPUSD.
GOLD Looking ready for another leg up. Things are shaping up nicely and an unrest is settling on the market. I wont be buying gold here. I already have a full exposure. That being said, Silver looks juicy and It´s lagging gold.
VIX VIX spreads are telling nothing. This looks like a good old western, bulls are facing the bears on a stand off.
AUD AUD looks ready to dive of a cliff. Being a proxy for playing EM and China. It´s not a bad short at the moment.
BTC BTC started a new run. Will it hold? Who knows. It´s above kumo and the 200DMA. The 180 dMR and 0.38 Fibonacci looks like a decent support.
Tuesday AUD – NAHB Business Confidence / Westpac Consumer Sentiment GBP – Prelim GDP q/q / GDP M/M / Manufacturing Production / Index Services / Industrial Production USD – NFIB Small Business Index / Powell speaks / Jobs Jobs / Mortage Delinquencies EUR – Lagarde speaks
Wednesday NZD – Cash rates CNY – Prelim foreign investiment JPY – Prelim machine tool orders EUR – Industrial production GBP – CB Leading Index
What I am looking at: This week is going to be insane. A lot of news and new data, and important earnings results. It will be a nail biting week.
GOLD Its moving, the fear started to knock on investors door. Gold/Silver ratio broke out, people are buying gold, fast and furious. Gold volatility is also decreasing. Fun fact, COMEX is leading the gold rally.
SP500 This escalated quickly, the weekly close candle is very ugly. This week we have major news events, Services and Manufacturing PMIs and ADP jobs information. If this numbers are green we might see a leg up, if they don’t match the street expectations be prepared to an acceleration. It´s still above the bull/bear line on the weekly but it printed the first red ashi candle. In my opinion it’s not time to buy the dip yet.
WTI Well, what a crappy week for crude. The coronavirus are acting like a huge black swan for crude. Oil/SPX ratio still prices WTI at $74 This level of ~$50 is quite important for crude. It has been a support for a long time. Will this hold? Only time will tell.
AUD RBA will decide rates this week. AUD is a proxy for china, investors dive in/flew according to risk. This is why AUD is a great risk appetite barometer. AUDUSD look ready to dump. On the weekly is super week and a bear MACD cross triggered. Despite being oversold on the daily it looks it wants to go to new lows.
Friday CNY – USD Denominated Balance JPY – CB leading Index EUR – German Industrial production / French Industrial production CAD – Jobs / Ivey PMI USD- Non-farm jobs change / Unemployment rate / Consumer credit