Knowledge Up Ticks #2

This week I came across a few articles and podcasts that seem worth sharing.
As almost anything new worth this weeks It´s related to corona virus.

1- Odd lots new episode
What Coronavirus Means For The Chinese Supply Chain

2- This special episode of Industry Focus with Ben Hunt is just amazing. I am an avid reader of Ben´s blog (https://www.epsilontheory.com/)
Bonus: Ben Hunt on Narrative and Markets

3- Chant with traders new risk management podcast, just pure gold
189: Best of Risk Management, Pt. 2

4- New article from Mark Down
The Anatomy of a Sell Off: The Three Phases

R + Quandl Dollar Vs Commodities correlations

The opportunity set for itself DXY had a major pump and the correlation between the dollar and commodities is unparalleled.

Correlations are a major tool on a traders belt and if you know a little of R here is a notebook that will give you the correlation between DXY and all major Commodity futures.

You just need to sign up for a Quandl account and get your free API key
https://www.quandl.com/

You can find the code on my GitHub:
https://github.com/tiagolvsantos/eod_notes/blob/master/R/TANOS%20Commodities%20Correlation.Rmd

17 – 21 Feb 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
For starters, next week I wil ltake the week off so no trading Week prep.
This week, as always, I am looking at SPX, WTI, GOLD and some FX Pairs.
I am building an interest in natgas, last week close got me interested. The weekly candle close looks promising.

SPX
Another week, another new ATH.
I am growing conscious that the market is not taking things serious about the corona virus. Everyone is behaving like work as usual when the world´s supply chain is stopped for weeks.
Bulls are back in town sentiment wise. And no sell signals were triggered yet, VIX spreads are OK, McClellan Oscillator is just chilling, no exhaustion on the charts

WTI
Nice bounce on WTI at a critical level.
I am afraid a possible OPEC cut won´t do much for crude price.
The stocks are building and China demand is decreasing week by week.
On the bright side, as the crude situation falls apart, American shale companies are great shorts.

https://themarketear.com/posts/cwGhWLzhDy

GBP
I know that last week things didn´t play out as I planned.
I do belive the next numbers for GBP post Brexit will tend to be very bad.
The country is divided and Economic numbers should start to show that.

GOLD
This bad boy is going, and Silver is taking a ride on the side car.
I stand by my call made a few weeks that said to buy any gold weakness.

Blue Apron APRN
I don’t usually short stocks on earnings but blue apron looks ready to die.
Competition is eating they meal left and right and things are not looking good.
They report earnings on Wednesday, I bough puts.

Dropbox DBX
I am not playing this one, earnings on Tuesday. Could storage is being traded like a commodity and big boys AMAZON, GOOGLE and MSFT are eating Dropbox´s lunch.
They are selling more storage, integrated in their ecosystem for a fraction of the price.

Herballife HLF
Well I have a very strong opinion about this.
Just watch “Betting on zero” Documentary on Netflix. I am not a fan boy of Bill Ackerman but the man has a point.

CRYPTO

Events:
Monday
JPY – Revised Industrial Production
USD – Bank Holiday

Tuesday
CNY – Foreign investiment ytd
GBP – Avg earnings Index / Unemployment rate
EUR – ZEW German Economic Sentiment / ZEW Economic Sentiment
CAD – Manufacturing sales m/m
USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index / NAHB Housing Index
JPY – Core Machinery orders m/m

Earnings: WMT,GRPN,HLF

Wednesday
GBP – CPI/ PPI
CAD – CPI
USD – CPI / Building Permits / New Housing Starts

Earnings:APRN

Thursday
AUD – Jobs Data / Flash Man. PMI / Flash Services PMI
EUR – German Gfk consumer climate / German PPI / EUR Consumer confidence
GBP – Retail sales / CBI Industrial Expectations
USD – Philly Fed Index / Unemployment rates

Earnings: DPZ,DBX,NUE,FIT

Friday
JPY – Flash Man PMI
EUR – Flash Man. PMI / Flash Services PMI / CPI
GBP – Flash Man. PMI / Flash Services PMI
CAD – Retail Sales
USD – Flash Man. PMI / Flash Services PMI

Earnings: B,DE

Knowledge Up Ticks #1

My idea about the blog was to share my own content and ideas.
But today, sharing some good content from other traders/creators with a friend a blog reader he suggested I should once in a while share some “good stuff” I found across the internet. So Knowledge Up Ticks was born.

For this first edition, I am going to share a post from Jesse Felder, author of the blog https://thefelderreport.com . Jesse points out a very interesting trend with
Hindenburg Omens, for those who don’t know what this is check this link from investopedia (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp).
He points out that even though story doesn’t repeat itself, It does rhyme.

Share:
https://thefelderreport.com/2020/02/12/a-new-cluster-of-hindenburg-omens-betrays-the-bullish-case-for-stocks


The second share is a podcast. I am a huge fan of podcasts. Free knowledge with minimum effort? sign me up.
This episode (https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-188-best-of-risk-management-pt-1/) from Chart with traders is just amazing, one of the hardest things for me as a trader is risk management. This 52 minutes episode is pure gold, being a part one episode, I hope the other parts are just us good.

10-14 Feb 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
It will be an action packed week. A lot of earnings, crude being so volatile and gold & BTC looking juicy.
Tuesday will be a roller coaster for GBP pairs watch closely EURGBP and GBPUSD

SPX
It looks insane, stocks keep on pumping with so much market chaos. Don´t fight the tape, search for other markets where things looks more reasonable.
Technically SPX don’t show any weakness which puts me in alert even more.
TRIN points out a bearish sentiment.
A break of the 3225 can open the flood gate to shorts.

WTI
Things are looking grim for $WTI, on my twitter feed I posted a few charts that shows the weakness on the price action. New news are needed to save WTI from this slump.
I will start buying as the 50 level is being defended with a stop on $49.

GBP
Tuesday It will be a though day for GBP. It is already being hammered for the recent USD Strength.
BXY broke the trend too.
EURGBP looks primed for a retest of the 0.89s
I wont play both pairs, I will probably take advantage of DXY strength to sell GBPUSD. Will watch for a DXY pullback to short GBPUSD.

GOLD
Looking ready for another leg up.
Things are shaping up nicely and an unrest is settling on the market.
I wont be buying gold here. I already have a full exposure.
That being said, Silver looks juicy and It´s lagging gold.

VIX
VIX spreads are telling nothing. This looks like a good old western, bulls are facing the bears on a stand off.

AUD
AUD looks ready to dive of a cliff.
Being a proxy for playing EM and China. It´s not a bad short at the moment.

BTC
BTC started a new run. Will it hold? Who knows.
It´s above kumo and the 200DMA.
The 180 dMR and 0.38 Fibonacci looks like a decent support.

Events:
Monday
JPY – Economic watchers sentiment
EUR – Sentix Investors Confidence

Earnings: MELI

Tuesday
AUD – NAHB Business Confidence / Westpac Consumer Sentiment
GBP – Prelim GDP q/q / GDP M/M / Manufacturing Production / Index Services / Industrial Production
USD – NFIB Small Business Index / Powell speaks / Jobs Jobs / Mortage Delinquencies
EUR – Lagarde speaks

Earnings: UA,LYFT,HAS,AKAM

Wednesday
NZD – Cash rates
CNY – Prelim foreign investiment
JPY – Prelim machine tool orders
EUR – Industrial production
GBP – CB Leading Index

Earnings:SHOP,CSCO,CVS,TEVA,GOLD,CME,CTL,TVRG,AMAT

Thursday
EUR – German CPI
USD – CPI / CORE CPI / Unemployment claims

Earnings: BABA,ROKU,NVDA,PEP,DUK,KHC,WM,DDOG,AUY

Friday
JPY – Tertiary Industry Activity
EUR – German Prelim GDP / German WPI / Flash employment change / Flash GDP
USD – Retail sales / Core retail sales / Prelim UoM consumer sentiment / Industrial production

Earnings: YNDX

3 – 7 Feb 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
This week is going to be insane. A lot of news and new data, and important earnings results. It will be a nail biting week.

GOLD
Its moving, the fear started to knock on investors door.
Gold/Silver ratio broke out, people are buying gold, fast and furious.
Gold volatility is also decreasing.
Fun fact, COMEX is leading the gold rally.

SP500
This escalated quickly, the weekly close candle is very ugly.
This week we have major news events, Services and Manufacturing PMIs and ADP jobs information. If this numbers are green we might see a leg up, if they don’t match the street expectations be prepared to an acceleration.
It´s still above the bull/bear line on the weekly but it printed the first red ashi candle.
In my opinion it’s not time to buy the dip yet.

WTI
Well, what a crappy week for crude.
The coronavirus are acting like a huge black swan for crude.
Oil/SPX ratio still prices WTI at $74
This level of ~$50 is quite important for crude. It has been a support for a long time. Will this hold? Only time will tell.

AUD
RBA will decide rates this week.
AUD is a proxy for china, investors dive in/flew according to risk.
This is why AUD is a great risk appetite barometer.
AUDUSD look ready to dump. On the weekly is super week and a bear MACD cross triggered. Despite being oversold on the daily it looks it wants to go to new lows.

Events:
Monday
JPY – Man. PMI
CHN – Caixin Man. PMI
CHF – Man. PMI
EUR – Man. PMI
GBP – Man. PMI
CAD – Man. PMI
USD – ISM Man. PMI / ISM Prices / Wards total vehicles sales

Earnings: GOOG

Tuesday
AUD – Rates decision / AIG construction Index
GBP – Construction PMI
EUR – PPI
USD – Factory orders m/m
NZD – Jobs

Earnings: DIS,SNAP,SIRI,RACE,COP

Wednesday
CHN – Caixin Services PMI
CHF – SECO Consumer climate
EUR – Services PMI / Retail sales / ECB Lagarde
GBP – Services PMI
USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment change / Services PMI / ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI

Earnings:SPOT,QCOM,GM,PTON,GPRO,GRUB

Thursday
EUR – German factory orders m/m / ECB Lagarde
USD – Prelim Non farm productivity /Prelim unit labor costs / Unemployment claims
AUD – AIG Services Index
JPY – Average cash earnings / Household spending

Earnings: TWTR,BMY,SN,EL,WWE,UBER,PINS,ATVI,FTNT,ZEN

Friday
CNY – USD Denominated Balance
JPY – CB leading Index
EUR – German Industrial production / French Industrial production
CAD – Jobs / Ivey PMI
USD- Non-farm jobs change / Unemployment rate / Consumer credit

Earnings: ABBV,CCJ,CBOE