9 -13 Mar 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

Special Note: Market prep post will be posted on Sundays around 9 pm GMT.

What I am looking at:
Again, crazy week. More corona virus news and things are escalating.
(Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE)

GBPUSD, I closed my short for +248 pips. I will explain more later in the post.
Gold / Silver, I am still long and strong things are shaping up fundamentally although some correlations are being made with early 2008 precious metals market I do believe the market learned from Its 2008 mistakes.
CAD, I opted to play CADJPY It was the safe play and after Mondays fake rally It was a great opportunity to short. I closed the short because holding trough the weekend was making me unease. I will reevaluate on Monday.
EUR, Special attention on the EUR this week. On Thursday ECB decides if it cuts rates or not. If ECB cuts all EUR gains from previous week might be erased. It´s a risky play.

SPX
The amount of noise on the daily chart is insane, so much pump by news and weird stuff.
The weekly chart is providing a cleaner look. The red box i showed last week is holding strong. SPX couldn’t close above it. Bright side ~2900 is holding strong.
I do think the path is lower but I think one last pump might occur providing a better short opportunity.
VIX is telling the story, market sentiment is bearish and people are looking for protection.

WTI
This tweet says it all

Things are looking really bad for WTI, that ~$30 level seems more obvious by the day.

GBPUSD
I still think the pound is going lowerm I closed my short on the retest of the ytd mean reversion.
A retest of the redbox is possible, GBP numbers will be released on Wednesday. For now is watch and see how they will play out.

USDJPY
This is looking bad. If this breaks down, It could trigger a spiral of stop losses and bring the SPX / USDJPY correlation to interesting levels.

GOLD & SILVER
I will just leave the charts, I think I have been making my bullish case for a few weeks.

CAD
Despite having a long way to go down, a relief rally is due, CAD might retest the breakdown ~74.9 and CADJPY ~79.249.

Events:
Monday
JPY – Economy Watchers Sentiment
CHF – Unemployment rate
EUR – Germany Industrial Production / Sentix Investor Confidence

Tuesday
CNY – CPI / PPI
JPY – Prelim Machinery tool orders
EUR – Man. production / Revised GDP
AUD – Westpack Consumer Sentiment

Wednesday
GBP – GDP / Man. Production / Index Service / Industrial Production
USD – CPI / Core CPI
JPY – BSI Man. Index / PPI

Thursday
EUR – Industrial Production
USD – PPI/Core PPI / Unemployment claims
EUR – Rates Decision

Friday
EUR – German CPI / Italian CPI
GBP – CB Leading Index
USD – Prelim. UoM consumer Sentiment / Prelim. UoM Inflation Expectation


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *