6 – 10 Apr 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
I feel I am repeating myself. Another hell of a week. Markets went up and down with mad swings.
For me It´s being very hard and challenging keeping it up with all this news and activity. So I decided to mainly focus on SP500, FX, Gold and crude. No stocks at all.
The AUDJPY trade is going well, short since 66.508 it´s in profit for ~163 pips. I will keep it open, I think it will go lower.
In midst of all this, I have been reducing the amount of trade I do per week, I am adapting my trades in a way I can be more “comfortable” with them.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    It´s still a long way to bottom
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Short term US bonds are already negative and going into more negative territory
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Gold had a nice rally but I think it will go down before going much higher (I do own gold)
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Commodities battle and swing according dollar prices, if the dollar is strong commodities prices go down and vice versa. DXY is looking strong

Next Week:
AUD
I could throw a bunch of ideas of shorts but it would not be any different from your own analysis. I try to do this to share a different perspective on the market.
That being said, my “main” play at the moment is short AUDJPY. Things do look dire for the AUD and versus the Yen seems to be the best way to play it.
Yen looks very strong, it´s a safe haven and due to AUDJPY correlation with the SP500 It validates the price prediction.

AUD Weekly chart
JPY Weekly chart

CRUDE
This is a though one, I really like to trade WTI, It´s one of the main things I usually trade but this is starting to be insane. On last Thursday Trump tweeted that Saudis and Russians were talking and the WTI jumped almost 25% spot.
Common sense says to me that WTI is a no trade asset for the moment.
I do belive WTI will head lower before starting to gain up momentum.
Nonetheless here is my chart.

WTI Weekly chart

This will complicate things for crude prices.

CAD
This is a weird one. It looks ready to fall in oblivion.
It´s high correlation to crude prices makes it one asset to be watching.
Ways to play will be CADJPY/ USDCAD / EURCAD
A close below the yellow box will be a trigger for a short

CAD Weekly chart

GOLD
It is forming a massive cup and handle. Long term I am very bullish on gold, short term I am aware that the downside is more plausible. Maybe a retest of the 1500 lvl or lower.

Gold Weekly chart

SP500
Things are bad, market is bouncing but I feel it´s a dead cat bounce. There are still a lot of dip buyers but people are starting to see the bigger picture. Economic data is deteriorating by the day and this corona virus pandemic is affecting business throughout the world.
I still see SP500 reaching ~2000.

SP500 Weekly Chart

Another Notes
If on mid march, insiders were buying like crazy, last week, insiders were selling a ton.

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

SPY is still seeing a lot of inflows, month-to-month inflows are still positive.

Track Insight SPY Flows

I am taking this time to read and learn new things. I would like to share a few links:
Blogs:
https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/black-swan-events/
https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/56742/global-once-we-are-out-of-this-mess-the-usd-could-be-hammered

Podcasts:
Macro voices 213 Josh Crumb: Deciphering the Gold market
https://bit.ly/2V02hxM
hmmminars from Grant Williams
https://ttmygh.com/hmmminars/

Events:
Monday
EUR – German factory orders m_m /Sentix Investor confidence
GBP – Construction PMI
OPEC Meetings

Tuesday
AUD – Rates Decision
JPY – CB leading Index
EUR – German Industrial Production m_m
CAD – IVEY PMI
USD – Jolts Jobs Openings

Wednesday
JPY – Core machinery orders m_m / Economic Watchers Sentiment
CHF – Unemployment rate
USD – FOMC

Thursday
JPY – Consumer Confidence / Prelim Machinery orders m_m
GBP – GDP /Industrial production / Manufacturing Production / Index of Services
CAD – Jobs Data
USD – Unemployment claims / Core PPI / PPI /Prelim UoM consumer sentiment

Friday (Bank Holiday)
JPY PPI
CNY – CPI / PPI/ New loans
USD – CPI / Core CPI


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