13 – 17 Apr 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

From last week:
What a crappy week.
I had to cut my short on AUDJPY for a small profit.
My risk management parameters made me cut it. Rules are there for protecting you from yourself. My instincts and opinion may be correct about AUDJPY but the market is telling me I am wrong.
Trade with rules and a plan.
My decision to trade less and watch the markets It´s working out for me, I am being able to learn and understand the market swings and news.
Trading in this environment feels more like gambling.


My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Despite this huge pump, I don’t believe we saw the bottom. Economic numbers are horrible and earnings season is starting. When those big airlines report, it may bring everything down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, Powell went on full “brrrrrrrr” the FED printer is working 24/7.
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Huge rally this week. I maintain my opinion. When this supply chain disruption ends. Gold will correct lower, providing a good buying opportunity . I already have gold on my portfolio, a test to the 1500 level is a buying opportunity for long term
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Not doing much as everything is on freeze. Corn is approaching some lows.
    Copper rebounded and oil is in a no mans land.

Next Week:
It´s going to be another crazy week.
I will keep my plan, I will trade small positions or not trading at all. I will use my time to study market movements and improve my systems.
That being said, this is what is catching my attention.
Earnings season is starting:

April 13 earnings week

FED balance sheet is full steaming head, Powell is printing 24×7. This looks like a crypto chart

FED Balance Sheet

CRUDE
OPEC+ decided to cut production, 9.7M bd per day let´s see how futures open. Demand is driving the price. Crude is in a no mans land and I think this wont do much for price while demand remains this low.

WTI Daily

GOLD
Went full on rocket man. FED printing press and supply chain disturbances in the gold physical delivery market are pumping the price higher. When the dust settles, a correction will happen, fast and furious.

Gold Daily

SP500
Last week the TTM triggered a long signal on the daily chart. A retest on the ytd mean reversion of ~2900 is possible. It also broke out the rising wedge, invalidating the pattern.

SP500 Daily

Another Notes
Insiders started selling the pump.

Insiders transactions chart

Sentiment is in a what I call weird mood. Bearish on the economy, bullish on the FED printer.

Market Sentiment

Safe Havens are going up, such is the market. Correlations don’t matter.

Safe Havens


St. Louis FED Financial Stress Index, well that spike sure does means something.

St. Louis FED Financial Stress Index

Events:
Monday

Tuesday
CNY – Foreign direct inevstiment ytd/y / USD denominated trade balance

Wednesday
AUD – Westpac consumer sentiment
USD – Core Retail Sales / Retail Sales / Empire state manufacturing Index / Industrial production / NAHB Housing Market Index
CAD – Rates decision

Thursday
AUD – Employment
EUR – German WPI / CPI / Industrial Production
USD – Unemployment claims / Philly Fed man. Index / Building Permits

Friday
CNY – Industrial Production / Retail Sales / Unemployment Claims
JPY -Tertiary Industry Activity
EUR – CPI / CORE CPI
USD – CB Leading Index



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