27 Apr – 1 May 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
I been trading less and risking less.
I closed my position on $GOLD (Barrick Gold) for + ~36% the last Thursdays candle looked toppy. I will look to go back in on a pullback.
I also closed my USDCAD short, when price failed to close above 1.42489 it was my hint. USDCAD will go higher but profits are profits. I am looking to take another long on a new retest of 1.40062.

Positions on $AG, $XAUUSD (longs) are still open.
I have been using a lot of time refactoring and creating new frameworks for my algos. Despite not being trading much, I am using this time to learn new strategies, code, backtest and study macro.
Maybe next week I will have more free content to share.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    This is being hard to digest, market rumors and the Fed are pumping this market up. I stand by my opinion, patience is a virtue.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Yup, not much to say about this
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    This is a curve ball, Gold is pumping, JPY is setting up nicely for a pump too but Silver and CHF and looking really weak.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    CRB Index reached a new ATH low
CRB Commodity Index

Next Week:
Another action packed week of earnings

Earnings Week 27 April 2020

So far earnings have been very disappointing.

Earnings beating consensus – https://themarketear.com/posts/c84QLsijZo

I will be looking into MSFT, APPL, V, FB ,BA, LUV and AMD.
Two special notes for this week:
1- Airlines, earnings should be very, very bad. They will probably be subject to government bailouts. For the long term this downside should be excellent buying opportunities.
2- Oil companies. Mnuchin already said that the US is looking into taking a stake on oil companies as a bailout mechanism. XLE biggest companies as % are XOM and CVX. When this pumps be ready and don´t miss the boat.
As oil is being bailed out, XLF and banks will ride that wave too because they are the most exposed to debt (HYG and JNK), be aware to surf that wave too.

CRUDE
I wouldn’t touch crude directly with a two foot pole, the volatility and uncertainty will eat your trade alive.
It´s rumored that new OPEC + talks will happen and Trump is committed to stop the oil bleeding too.
Crude spreads are going nuts, and Brent shines as more stable than WTI.
If you want to play long/short crude be aware of volatility or use correlated assets with lower volatility.

TANOS WTI

GOLD
Not much to say, I still believe in a short term pullback but long term I am very bullish. Some people are seeing a IH&S being formed, but without a breakout my bias maintains.

Daily XAUUSD chart

SP500
Probably this earnings week will decide the fate of SP500.
It´s been trading in a range and the technical setup supports a bearish bias.
Some of the index constituents are starting to turn red. SPY outflows YTD continue.

SP500 Daily chart
TANOS SPX
SPY Outflows

YEN/ CAD
Yen is position to pump hard, on the monthly chart is already squeezing a screaming buy. On the other hand, CAD looks ready to die. Great way to play this is CADJPY.

Monthly YEN
Monthly CAD

Another Notes
Insiders are not buying the fed printer trigger, and buybacks are at the lows. If execs are reaching for life boats, they should know what´s what.

Insiders transactions
Insiders selling by index

Sentiment is mixed, confusion reigns in the market

TANOS Sentiment

Safe Havens are also mixed

TANOS Safe Havens

Articles:
WSJ Article on crude storage
Visual Capitalist info chart about dividend investing on volatile markets

Events:
Monday
EUR – German Retail Sales m/m

Tuesday
JPY – Unemployment rate / Core CPI
USD – Consumer Confidence / Richmond Man. Index

Wednesday
USD – Advaned GDP / FOMC
AUD – CPI

Thursday
JPY – Retail sales / Consumer Confidence
CNY – MAN. PMI / NON MAN. PMI
CHF – KOF Economic Sentiment
EUR – German Unemployment / CPI / Core CPI / EUR Unemployment Rate
USD – Unemployment Claims / Chicago PMI

Friday
JPY – Man. PMI
CHF – Man. PMI
GBP – Man. PMI
CAD – Man. PMI
USD – Man. PMI
EUR – Bank Holiday




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