4 – 8 May 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
Last week I got a question from a friend that I thought I should share.
He asked me why some of my setups don’t happen on the week I talk about them. The answer is simple, I don’t trade daily. I look and weekly charts and monthly charts. I use daily charts for entries. Bigger timeframes give you clear perspectives, daily charts have “noise” from market news and events. That being said, I share assets and trades that I am willing to have open for weeks or months.
Talking trade, last week I didn’t made any trade. I didn’t pull the trigger on long USDCAD and my longs for MSFT and APPL failed the entries on last Thrusday´s dip and I didn’t chase.
CADJPY, AUDJPY and EURAUD are all in the radar since last week.

This week the reports and spreadsheets I usually share are a little different. They have more content and different formats. I have been redoing my frameworks and algos. Taking advantage of the free time and patience and breath I am giving the markets.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    SP500 started to turn red, even with big earnings we closed the week on the red. Maybe It´s a start for a bigger pullback
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Yup, not much to say about this
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    This week a lot of european countries will start to re-open. Let´s see how gold reacts
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    It´s been a bloodbath lef and right. They will pose great opportunities to long for a patient investor.

Next Week:
Another action packed week of earnings

Earnings 4 May 2020

I will be looking at:
DIS – All parks are closed and I dont think streaming will save DIS this earnings. A big dip may provide a great long opportunity as quarentine is being eased and the return no normal will reopen the parks.
NEM & GOLD – Gold miners, their earnings might tell where gold´s heading next.
SHOP – Shopify earnings may mark the recently top for the stock.
STNG – tankers, Scorpio is a big company. I failed the entry to long tankers. I doubt I will get a nice entry post earnings but It´s on my radar.
UBER & LYFT – This will be bad, It´s just morbid curiosity
BKNG – Booking Holdings, Tourism being stalled everywhere the business for booking sites may be down substantially. Big drops may provide great entries for long term.

I am watching mining stocks for any pullback to key levels.
As said last week, XLE and XLF for any government bailouts.

CRUDE
The puppy is sick, despite of the recent pump, If you look to long term crude is trapped on a massive down turn. We are down 550% $65 in 581 days. This is a big trend. Supply is still greater than demand. Keep your eye on the ball and don’t fomo in. Despite all this, crude may trade to $25 the technicals are there but I think it will only provide a opportunity for shorts. This is the 4th week straight of massive inventory builds despite production cuts.

Oanda WTI CFD
TANOS CRUDE Dashboard

GOLD
Again, long term I am bullish as hell. Short term I fear It will have a pullback. Call it the return to normal pullback. Any touch on the orange box, I am buying.

Oanda GOLD CFD – Weekly
Oanda GOLD CFD – Daily

SP500
Last week earnings pumped SP500 to 2959 in the cash session, to revert south on huge earnings at the en of the week. This was weird, maybe people are catching up to the narrative It´s not only the virus, It´s the impact on the economy. 66% of SP500 are still below the 250 DMA. The 2800 level is heavily disputed. SPX cash rejected 0.38 fib perfectly. This is very important because it rejected it two days in a row.

Oanda SP500 CFD – Daily
TANOS SPX Dashboard
CME QuickStrike
SPX Cash session

YEN
YEN is poised for a massive breakout. I see some vulnerabilities on AUD and CAD vs the YEN. Bare in mind this is long term plays, have patience. This Tuesday RBA will decide rates an acceleration on RBA might help this trade.

JXY Weekly chart
Oanda AUDJPY Weekly
Oanda CADJPY Daily

Another Notes
Insiders are not buying the fed printer again.

Insiders Sentiment

Sentiment still mixed

TANOS Dashbaord Market Sentiment

Safe Havens are starting to gain strength again

TANOS Safe Havens Dashboard

Huge drop on the Weekly Economic Index

Weekly Economic Index – Fred

Articles:
Barrick dispute with Papua New Guinea

A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation – Meb Faber

The Original Quant (guest: Rob Hanna) – Market Huddle Ep.78

Events:
Monday
EUR – MAN. PMI / Sentix Investor Confidence
CHF – MAN. PMI
USD -. Factory orders
AUD – AIG Construction Index

Tuesday
AUD – Rates Decision
USD –Services PMI / ISM NON. MAN PMI
CHF – SECO Climate
GBP – Services PMI

Wednesday
EUR – German factory orders / Services PMI / retail sales
GBP – Construction PMI
AUD – AIG Services Index

Thursday
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – German Industrial production
USD – Unemployment Claims
CAD – IVEY PMI

Friday
USD – Jobs data
CAD – Jobs data




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