11 – 15 May 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.

From last week:
This last trading weeks have been hard as hell. Last week I got stopped from the only trade I made, short CADJPY.
I believe that in order to improve my trading, I don’t have to be always trading, I am brushing up on my macro. I am reading a lot, better then reading I am trying to understand and puzzle it all together. It´s a time investment.

My open trades still are, long gold, long $AG. I have to confess I have been struggling not to open new trades, my patience to wait for clear signals are reaching an end. I think this market conditions are being hard on all traders.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Still believe this, this is a never ending bear rally, I almost sound like Nouriel Roubini I know.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Yes confirming, every single day.
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    I am almost giving up on this idea. technicals for gold and silver look amazing.
    I can totally be wrong on this one.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are getting slammed hard. I believe this will provide buy opportunities for the entire decade. When grains start to pump, they will pump hard, remember patience.
US Yields

Next Week:
I am scratching myself not to short SP500 and Stoxx50.
This Monday we will have the US Mortage Delinquencies number and this will tell a tale of how families are surviving the corona virus. This brings me to a big conundrum, markets have been rallying on really bad news. I will wait for a reversal signals before going short. I will overlay EURAUD on SP500 for more insights, remember, they correlate negatively.

Next Thursday, May14th It´s and OPEX day, prepare for some serious action this week to regarding to this.
More Earnings:

11th May Earnings



The V shape recovery on crude is on the stocks side. Despite the big rally last week, I do believe crude, specially WTI is reaching it´s near term top. Further downside will be in play, specially with the expiration of the June contract on the 19th.

Oanda WTI CFD weekly chart

The technical setup for gold looks really interesting, despite being bear on the short term. If this setup plays out, I will have to change my bias.
I still believe that every gold dip should be a buying opportunity. Watch the support at ~1680 or the 30dMR.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily chart

Only Jerome Powell knows what SP500 will do next.
It´s like trading and asking a magic 8ball for advice.
On the daily, last Friday it rejected the 0.38fib level. Bare in mind that until the trend line is broken, the trend is still up. On the hourly chart, looks like a pullback is eminent. No reversal signals appeared yet.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Oanda SP500 CFD hourly
TANOS SPX Dashboard

I am very bearish on CAD and Canada overall. Vancouver city is bankrupt. Canada economy is looking worse by the day It´s reliability on commodities exports and real estate s troublesome.
How I am playing this, long USDCAD / Short CADJPY and long XAUCAD.
Interesting data from the CoT too, money managers are positions short on the CAD.

Oanda USDCAD daily chart
Oanda CADJPY Weekly chart
TANOS CoT Dashboard

Another Notes

Stocks / Commodities ratio, a big drop last week. It´s the commodities strike back moment?

Stocks/Commodities ratio

VIX Short term spreads turned bullish

VIX Spreads

US stocks volume have been dropping sharply

US stocks volume

Things on sentiment is becoming weirder by the day. AAII Survey is mainly bearish, NAAIM turned bullish, European sentiment is negative overall.

TANOS Sentiment Dashboard

Safe Havens It´s a bag of mixed feelings.

TANOS Safe Havens Dashboard

GBPUSD looks ready to drop hard.

TANOS Minerva systems

I dipped my toe on bitcoin for the first time back in 2017. Sold some at the top but been riding this with up and down with a small part of my portfolio. This is not a bad looking chart.

BTC Daily chart

The last but probably the most important, Insider selling. IF they don’t want their own shares, you shouldn’t want them too. They know Q2 results will be terrible, they are dumping stock left and right.



What’s next after the big bounce – Mark Dow joins Alpha Trader

Just discovered this, Its just amazing: https://www.occupyajobonwallstreet.com/

USD – Mortage Delinquencies

JPY – Leading Index
USD – NFIB Small Business Index / CPI / Core CPI

JPY – Economic Watchers Sentiment
GBP – Prelim. GDP / Man. Production / Index Services / Industrial Production
EUR – Industrial Production
USD – Core PPI / PPI

AUD – Jobs
EUR – German CPI
USD – Unemployment Claims

CNY – Industrial Production / Retail Sales / Unemployment Rate
EUR – German Prelim. GDP / EUR flash GDP
USD – Core retail sales / retail sales /Empire State Man. Index / industrial Production / UoM Sentiment / Jolts Jobs

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