18 – 22 May 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Finally managed to get some action!!!
Trades:
Shorted AUDJPY AT ~70.03 I will ride this one out. Will explain better on the ideas section.

Gold, yeah got long, maybe I was wrong after all. The breakout was insane.
Managed to get long at 1716.75.

For last also managed to scalp a SP500 short ~2904.6 (ytdMR) till 2816.5.

Got a few handles(short) on STOXX50 too but nothing worth mentioning, were quick in and outs.

Still long $AG.

Was a nice week, got a little busy and missed some opportunities.
The GBPUSD short and the long USDCAD I shared on last week post.
The first missed at all, the second one it missed my entry point.

I have been struggling to keep focused, I am trying to work on that too.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    This week he had a breakdown on SP500 I do believe the worst is yet to come.
    Macro numbers are looking ugly but the Fed…
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Going, The Fed will started buy Corporate Bonds ETFs. This will escalate quickly
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Hey, maybe I am totally wrong on this one. If this does happen, I will use it to buy more gold.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    This will be an interesting trade, strong dollar, and EM FX weakness will probably drive soft and grains commodities down. Definitely keeping an eye on this.

Next Week:

Earnings Week 18 May 2020

More earnings:
Will be looking into: WMT,TGT,HRL,M,NVIDIA,BABA
There are a lot of Chinese companies presenting earnings. This will be interesting.

It´s time to start planning your stock shopping list.
I am not giving the speech about not actively trading your total portfolio.
What I will do is share what I am looking.

Airlines, yes they go bankrupt once in a while but they always, always survive.
Eying specially for Air France and Lufthansa. They should be target of government bailouts.

Iconic bullet proof brands, Coca- Cola, Pepsi, Disney, AT&T, etc
This brands have been with us since forever, they will remain here and wont go anywhere.

Food, not going the “Tech” way. Staying with the good old fashion stuff.
Hormel foods, Nestle, McCormick , McDonald’s, etc people are tired of eating at home and cooking.

Tech, why not boost your holdings on the best performance sector.
Amazon, Microsoft, $XLK Thats all you need basically.

CRUDE

It was a really good week for crude overall. Even had an Inventory drawdown on the EIA report.
June contract will expire of 19th May. Might be some bumpy road ahead.
Definitely has steam go to to $25.
My view on crude is that the price will remain trapped between a range, probably $15-$25 while the demand issues are not resolved.
I am currently staying away from crude. There´s too much uncertainty for me.

Oanda WTI CFD
TANOS Crude Dashboard

And interesting sector that I am particularly looking into again is tankers.
They took a beating this week. Looking into $STNG, $EURN and $DSSI

GOLD
Nothing much to say, I was wrong on the fundamentals.
The technical breakout was pretty strong.
My setup for long was on the breakout restest with a TTM squeeze buy signal.
The resistance at ~1747 might prove a challenge. The stop is below the support and the TP is – 1770.

Oanda GOLD CFD

That being said, this happened last week:

SP500
The breakdown was clear. It dropped hard without any retest.
What I am looking is that red resistance at 2876. I am looking into short there with a ~5 points stoploss. For TP I don’t have a clear target, will let it ride and manage it but the 0.5 fib zone looks though to break so must be a decent target.
SAR signals also bearish.

Oanda SP500 CFD
Oanda CFD SP500
TANOS SPX Dashboard

STOXX50
Almost a repeat from SP500. The 2970 resistance is providing some nice short opportunities. Tight stoploss of ~5 points and let it ride. TP, the 0.61 fib looks strong so keep an eye on it.

Oanda STOX50 CFD

CAD
It´s going, but the time is not upon us, yet.
As this new crises unfolds the CAD looks really vulnerable.

CAD Daily and Weekly Chart

The CADJPY, TTM Squeeze already triggered a sell signal on the daily and the reject of the 76.54 is a very good signal for shorts.
I am looking a close below structure channel + breakdown on the triangle to enter a short.

CADJPY Daily and Weekly Chart

AUDJPY
I am a little bit to excited with this trade. Technically it looks amazing, too amazing to be true.
I got short at ~70.03. On a short term, it looks like a H&S inside a rising wedge.
I am planning on adding more on the neckline breakdown, below ~67.759.
On a longer timeframe, we have already a huge H&S in play.
This can a be a hell of a trade! That´s making me nervous.

AUDJPY Daily and Monthly Chart

Another Notes

VIX Short term spreads end up bearish

VIX Short Term Spreads

Stocks / Commodities ratio is looking interesting

Stocks / Commodities chart

Natgas, things are getting ugly. Summer is upon us and technically it does looks ugly.

Oanda CFD Natgas

Senators buying selling

https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/senatetrading

Articles:

https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2020/05/12/Broken-Indicators-The-Forward-PE-and-the-PEG

Bank of Japan as a Contrarian Stock Investor: Large-Scale ETF Purchases

Marin Katusa is a a legend on the commodities industry, this interview is very good.

Events:
Monday
JPY – Prelim GDP /Tertiary Industry Activity
GBP – CB Leading Index
USD – NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday
JPY – Revised Industrial Production
GBP – Average Earnings Index / Unemployment Rate
EUR – ZEW / German ZEW
CNY – CB Leading Index
AUD – CB Leading Index

Wednesday
JPY – Core machinery Orders
GBP – CPI / Core CPI
EUR – CPI / Core CPI / Consumer Confidence
CAD – CPI

Thursday
AUD – Flash PMI
JPY – Flash PMI
GBP – Flash PMI
USD – Flash PMI / Philly Fed Man. Index / Unemployment Claims


Friday
EUR – Flash PMI
GBP – Retail Sales
CAD – Core retail sales

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