1 – 5 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
Things are improving on the mental side. I was able to keep focus and get stuff done.
It was definitely the right move to get back to what I usually do. Trading my plans and looking ahead for next moves.
I managed to fix my algo bug, this is also good for you if you use the free signals
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

Last week plays are doing nicely AG, Air France (got stopped at 4.13€ with profit), Lufthansa really great pumps.
I am raising the stoploss for a nice and safe cushion, profits are profits and this market have crazy swings.

TNK and STNG are also doing good, despite on the last two trading days they retraced a bit on a big Oil move. Stops are in place above entry point , not really worried.
I will talk more about the positions below.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Looks like SP500 doesn’t want to go down. It´s pointless to fight it
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, It makes sense for gold to go down while SP500 goes higher.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
This week is going to be insane! A lot of economic data coming through and more earnings.
On the earnings side, I will keep an eye on Zoom, American Eagle and Slack.

Earnings 1 June 2020

This week EUR, AUD and CAD have cash rates decisions , World Manufacturing / Services PMIs. China already reported this Sunday with a miss 50.6 on Man. PMI.

Be prepared for a lot of action and crazy swings.

Crude
A hell of a move. Really strong close on Friday, I wasn’t expecting it at all, to be fair I was expecting WTI to roll over on rejection of $28.64 as resistance and 30dMR.
If WTI manages to close above $30.60 this can be really bullish for WTI.
As per the other weeks, I am not trading crude because Its really hard to read the action for me at the moment. I don’t have a clear view of whats going to happen. On a side note, inventories increased, again despite all the production cuts.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly chart
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The sentiment is very gold bullish, but I think momentum is escaping the gold markets and going back to equities. To be fair, gold needs a retrace too. It´s an opportunity to buy more.
Gold rejected the retest on the breakdown line, seems to be forming a classic rising wedge pattern. I am not trading the downside, but I am looking to buy the upside, preferably on the green box.

Oanda Gold GFD daily & weekly

One thing I like to watch too are mean reversion lines, normal mean and geometric mean. They provide very consistent information about trend and possible extend moves. I use them in various timeframes but I found best results with 5+ years or last 365 days.
On gold for the last 365 days chart we are retesting the breakdown of the mean reversion lines. Which in my opinion supports the downside.

TANOS Ticker plots – Gold

On a very special note, this week can be a very volatile market for gold and silver with 3 very important cash rate decisions.

Silver
I don’t usually talk about silver and as an European, investing in silver doesn’t bring me much benefits.
But this recent moves on the market are making me very interested in trading silver as a commodity and silver miners (already playing AG).
Silver had gold crosses across a bunch of pairs. Will look for a pull back to add a position.

EMA Scanner for silver
Oanda CFD Silver daily & weekly

SP500
It definitely wants to retest at least ~3100.
It´s really a challenge to predict where the spuz will go, a lot of forces are pushing it to go higher and higher despite the world economy is crashing and burning. The level to watch is ~2964 the high of 09 march 2020 for downside and and a clean and close break above 3100.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily & weekly

On a side note, I like to watch trading ranges and the 3000 points zone is clearly a line in the sand for the spuz.

TANOS Ticker Plots – ES1

SP500 is also testing the 365 days mean reversion lines.

TANOS Ticker Plots – ES1

Airlines
Despite getting stopped on Air France, I will look into getting back in.
The market mood and the abundance of money in the EU to bailout everyone will pump it again.
Lufthansa, still strong. The stop is at ~8.38€. The fail to close above 9.340€ is a little bit worrying but I will evaluate more on Monday´s market open.

Air France KLM & Lufthansa

Shipping
Being highly correlated with crude, in order to hold this stocks you need “strong hands”. I believe crude is overvalued and this stocks will shine in the near future. Both have impeccable books and are profitable. It´s just a matter of time. Both their trends are still up, If the trend is not broken, the path with least resistance is still up.

Scorpio and Teekay daily charts

CAD & AUD
Last week DXY got destroyed and AUD and CAD pairs raised and shinned all week.
This week both CAD and AUD will decide cash rates and a lot of volatility can be brought to the FX market. If DXY holds 98 CAD and AUD pairs should loose their momentum.

DXY daily chart

CAD and AUD currency indexes are rejecting their strong resistances supporting the DXY theory.

AUD and CAD currency indexes daily

AUDUSD looking like a nice double top( bear pattern, short) and USDCAD looking like a sweet falling wedge (bull pattern, long) and hold the trend line which is very important here.

AUDUSD & USDCAD daily charts

As I have been saying, I am trying to play CAD and AUD VS JPY in correlation to SP500. SP500 being on a raging bull move, this idea is kind of shelved until SP500 supports the theory. The play at the moment is clearly vs USD if the signals work.

AUDJPY and CADJPY daily charts

TSLA
This a very speculative trade. I dont intend to take a position on TSLA, but I think the market will correlate the success of the Space X launch with Tesla and pump the stock. It may retest the 869 resistence, if it goes to ATH is just nuts.

Tesla daily chart
TANOS TIcker Plot – TSLA

Another Notes

Sentiment in American markets are returning to bull mode as Europe is getting bearish

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment

Insiders transactions, more selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

BTCUSD, if this continuation pattern brakes up, It´s big if true

BTCUSD Coinbase

Interesting Articles

In gold we trust 2020 report:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Compact-Version-english.pdf

New series of Grant Williams hummminars.
https://ttmygh.com/hmmminars/

Events:
Monday
JPY – Man. PMI
EUR – Man. PMI
GBP – Man. PMI
CAD – Man. PMI
USD – Man. PMI / ISM Man. PMI

Tuesday
AUD – Cash Rates
CHF – Man. PMI

Wednesday
AUD – GDP
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – Germnay Unemployment
GBP – Services PMI
EUR – Unemployment rate
USD – Non – Farm employment changes / Services PMI / ISM Non Man. PMI / Factory orders
CAD – Cash Rates

Thursday
AUD – Restail sales / AIG Services
EUR – Services PMI
GBP – Construction PMI
EUR – Cash Rates
USD – Unemplyment claims

Friday
GBP – Gfk consumer sentiment
EUR – Germany factory orders
CAD – Jobs data
USD – Jobs data

2 thoughts on “1 – 5 June 2020 Trading week preparation”

  1. A opinião de que as ações ainda virão para baixo tem base nos resultados das empresas? Os mercados continuam a subir e os resultados das empresas no 1º trimestre não impressionaram (é a ideia que tenho no geral) e o vírus apanhou apenas março. Com o abril completamente parado, o maio a menos de “meio gás” e o junho ligeiramente melhor, é previsível que após julho/agosto essa queda surja?

    Like

    1. Em parte sim. Primeiro acredito que o mercado está sub valorizado a níveis estratosfericos, segundo penso que o verdadeiro resultado do corona vírus só se vai ver no segundo quarter.
      Com o desemprego mundial a níveis históricos, o numero de insolvências a aumentar todos os dias, o fantasma do corona ainda está presente, reaparecimento da trade war entre USA e China e manifestações violentas nos USA.
      Basicamente tudo se resume aos fundamentos não fazerem “fit” com o estado atual dos mercados. Todas estas discrepâncias tendem a ajustar, pode levar tempo mas a realidade bate sempre a porta.
      Agosto / Setembro penso que será o ponto de viragem, contudo é difícil estabelecer datas fixas nestas coisas.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.