29 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 – Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
No new trades were added.
Still long $AG and $LVO.
Crazy news on covid19 cases across the world.

Apart from watching the markets I have been coding and re watching Sopranos, because why not, such a good show.
Take time to enjoy yourself. Markets can be very exhausting and Its easy to get burned-out.

Be aware that next week is a big week in the US because of the 4th of July, there will be a lot of ghost trading desks and low liquidity,stay safe.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    The spooz started to rollover, no damage was done yet, only the trend was broken.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Gold is starting to get interesting
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    DXY looks grim, more below.

Next Week:
For me, It will be another wait and see week.
What I will be looking:

FB
A lot of companies are pulling out of Facebook ads, the recent one is Pepsi.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/pepsi-facebook-ad-boycott
A huge part of Facebook´s revenue is based on ads, this might trigger a sell off.
Technically the chart looks fragile, if 203 breaks and window to fill the down gap opens.

Facebook daily chart

WTI
The trend in theory broke down, although the major support did not broke.
It can play as a text book retest of the brake down, I will wait for a close below support to confirm the price movement.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

CoT report is showing a huge spike down on the futures Open Interest.

TANOS CoT Dashboard – WTI

Gold
It´s the moment of truth for gold, it manages to close above the previous high or more consolidation is in order. A close above the previous high will trigger a lot of buying signals, stay tuned.

Oanda CFD – GOLD daily

One thing to pay attention, the GVZ is approaching It´s mean reversion. If it actually reverts this can be the buy signal a lot of people is waiting for.

TANOS Market Gauge – GOLD Dashboard


SP500
The Spooz is unstoppable, despite the trend being broken this means nothing until the first big support is broken, last time the support was instantly bought.
Zone to watch is the 0.38 fib level ~2935.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily

Approximately 60% of SP500 constituents are below the bull/bear line.

TANOS Market Gauge – SP500 Dashboard

CoT for SP500 futures had a huge spike down on Open Interest.

TANOS CoT Dashboard – SP500

SPY MTD has seen a massive cumulative outflows.

https://www.trackinsight.com/en/

Shipping and NATGAS
Freight rates have been rising since early June, check the Baltic Dry Index.

https://stockcharts.com

NATGAS is super cheap, despite the massive oversupply I do think It´s a great opportunity to buy. Bare in mind we are in the summer. Protect yourself against seasonality. If we have another lock down in the winter this can sky rocket.

Oanda CFD Natgas daily

Despite shipping stocks being slaughtered last week, the fundamentals are getting bullish by the day. I still don´t have positions on the stocks I mentioned, I am looking for a clear price reversal before diving in.

STNG & NAT daily charts

The Euro & The Dollar
This can be a very interesting thing, IF It actually happens.
The Euro (EURUSD) is setting up for what It looks to be a bull flag.
If this flag breaks up It can start a new EURUSD bull trend.

Oanda EURUSD daily

What this actually means for the dollar, the DXY is heavyweight on EURUSD.
This, associated with It´s technical setup can sink the dollar to new short term lows.

DXY daily chart

Another component of the DXY is the GBPUSD pair which recently broke down and rejected the retest of the support.

Oanda GBPUSD Weekly

Why all of this? Well, the EURGBP pair also know and BMW-Jaguar spread is a synthetic pair based on the spread between EURUSD and GBPUSD.
The pair is now on a very important level -0.90 which has been rejected consistently for a lot of time. If all the above plays accordingly, this can be a huge turn around for the bulls on the pair.

Oanda EURGBP daily

Special note for EURAUD and the correlation between the pair and the SP500.
They are correlated negatively, which means when SP500 goes up, the pair goes down and vice versa.
On a SP500 rollover and EUR strength the pair can sky rocket as It did in February.

Oanda EURAUD daily

Another Notes

Sentiment:

TANOS Market Gauge- Sentiment Dashboard

FX:

TANOS Market Gauge – FX Dashboard

Safe Havens:

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

Interesting Articles

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/platts-4-commodity-charts-watch-week-3

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/06/24/ready-for-the-re-bal/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1275589332955512839.html?refreshed=yes

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– PMIs
– USD Factory Orders and Jobs data
– Powell Testify

22 – 26 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
It wasn´t a trade week for me, I followed the plan on SP500.
Went short on the retest of the breakdown but the tape went against me and was a 5 point loss.
I am focused on coding as this isn´t my kind of market to trade. It´s too overvalued for me.
Taking the time to improve in other areas is good too and not trading is also a trade. Capital conservation is the key to be profitable.

Still long $AG and $LVO (Lyxor S&P 500 VIX Futures Enhanced Roll UCITS ETF – C-EUR).

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Started to turn early on the week but finished strong. I still believe the path of least resistance is down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed above $1740 may be a good sign.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
The plan for next week is too watch SP500, Tanks,Miners and gold.
SP500 is trading like nothing is wrong in the world. Eventually reality will catch up, is just a matter of being prepared.
I want to keep accumulating volatility (LVO) and probably re-enter some miners. I am still looking into buying tankers but I am not seeing the bottom,yet.

Be aware of PMI numbers, market can swing violently.

WTI
$WTI failed to close above 0.38 Fibonacci. My plan is still not touching It.
It´s really hard to trade consciously the oil market the last few weeks, the trend is clearly up and I am not fighting it. Still on the side that $WTI is overvalued by at least $15. Inventories are still rising and the demand is still low.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly

Gold
I have a lot of strong opinions on the yellow metal. Things for short term are reaching a decision point, and I honestly think the path of least resistance is down.
I really don´t know how this will play out, SP500 can drop and gold can sky rocket or both can go down at the same time.
The fact is that for long term gold is poised to shine like the sun.
The pattern It is forming is a massive cup and handle.
Every drop between $1600-$1570 is a buy hand over fist.

Oanda CFD Gold daily & Weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Gold Dashboard


SP500
It´s kind of a stand off. Right now SP500 is on a no trade zone for me.
I am watching a break above or below the channel.
I am pretty vocal about saying SP500 is overvalued but trading it technically is basically gambling nowadays. So the trick is to watch the market mood and follow the trend. I am not saying I am buying If the channel breaks above, I am saying I am not shorting it.

Oanda CFD – SP500 daily & Weekly

Trade ranges are still below from where It is trading.

TANOS Analytics – SP500 trading zones

Miners
$GDX and $GDXJ just broke out last Friday and gold showed up for the party too.

GDX and GDXJ Milan stock exchange

I am eyeing a $GOLD and $BTG breakout from the current patterns to enter.

$GOLD & $BTG daily

VIX
I side with the guys that don´t find very useful to TA the VIX. But I do find very useful the signals It provides.
VIX term structure, provides de insight and demand for protection in the future.

http://vixcentral.com/

VIX spreads from #2 and #8 contract when below -2.5 usually provides signals for market tops.

VIX #2 & #8 spreads

VIX vs SP500 Futures volume correlation is been providing clear insights and direction. It is actually pointing out for a VIX correction down which can mean SP500 to go up.

TANOS Analytics – SPX Volume Vs VIX

Tankers
One thing to keep an eye related to tankers is the Baltic Dry Index which finished the week pretty strong.

stockcharts.com/

Both $STNG and $TNK are holding the support, lets see how they behave on the Monday opening.

$TNK and $STNG daily

Another Notes

Insiders selling massively

https://www.quiverquant.com
http://www.openinsider.com/

5YR Government CDS are increasing

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/sovereign-cds/

Interesting Articles

A friend forward me this one, and It´s pretty good.
Martin Wolf: what trade wars tell us from ft.com

Events:
Monday
GBP – CBI Industrial Orders
CNY -CB Leading Index
EUR – Consumer Confidence
USD – Existing home sales

Tuesday
AUD – PMIs
JPY – PMIs
EUR – PMIs
GBP – PMIs
USD – PMIs / Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday
NZD – Rates decision
EUR – German Ifo / Belgian NBB Business Climate

Thursday
JPY – All Industries Activity
EUR – German Gfk Consumer
USD – Goods / GDP / Unemployment claims

Friday
JPY – Tokyo CPI
USD – PCE


15 – 19 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
A lot of action and literally going nowhere.
SP500 is still inside It´s pattern, the DXY hold 96 and gold hold $1680.
I didn´t place any trade, the market is too overbought to buy and too bullish to sell. No clear signals on direction in my opinion and the only opportunities I am seeing are mining stocks and tankers.

Still long gold (commodity) for long term and $AG.
Last week I told I would start accumulating volatility, It´s paying nicely already.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Last week retrace may be the beginning of something. Only the future tape will tell. In my head It makes sense to go lower
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, gold It´s having a hard time to break $1740 resistance It´s an important level to watch.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
This week I am not planing to trade much. I have a lot of stuff I have to do relate to coding and the market is very choppy. As I said above, too overpriced to buy, too bullish to sell.
Next week there will be a lot of economical data and rates decisions.
My attention is focused on:
– GBP
– Volatility (As an European I use LVO to track/trade it)
– Shipping /Tanker Stocks
– Airlines Stocks for pumps
– Mining Stocks

WTI
I still think WTI is overvalued. The fair price would probably be half from where It is right now due to supply / demand.
Technically It rejected and important level but the trend is not broken, yet.
The weekly close only proves indecision prevails on the market with a doji candle. Inventories are increasing a lot,again.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude Dashboard

Gold
Gold is at a very important level, a close above $1740 can be very bullish.
For me It´s a no trade range. It´s not fragile for a short but It´s not strong enough to long. The two weeks fail to close $1740 must be respected.
Between us I really hope for a dip on gold to buy more, paper and physical.

Oanda Gold CFD – daily & weekly


SP500
Whats a -6% decline from an almost 50% pump, It´s a retrace.
SP500 still is in range for bullish movements and the pattern is not broken.
A close above 3230 would be insanely bullish, a close below 2964 zone (zone because It´s a range of important levels, support, 30/180/YTD mean reversion) can be very bad and pave the path to $2800.
Watch the insane volumes on the dumps. Just incredible.

Oanda SP500 CFD – daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – SPX Dashboard

Airlines
Well, the plan is the plan and the plan exists to protect us from pain.
Last week the all Airlines sector got wrecked.
I believe this sector still have a lot of pain in the future but one thing is certain, a lot of money and opportunity will appear in this sector.
I will make sure I will be here waiting as an alligator.
Any retest of the lows is a buy with stops in place.

Air France & Lufthansa Daily

Miners
Miners are not for all investor s a lot of pain can be delivered before profits appear.
The two miners I track very closely are $AG and $GOLD. Both are having pretty good runs and the correlation with gold are uncanny. I am looking into adding more to $AG and create a new position in $GOLD. Lets see how Gold unfolds this week.

First Majestic & Barrick Gold daily

FX
All the FX space are very volatile, dozens of pip movements in several hours across all majors.
This is a time where mean reversion strategies shine. As you can see this levels are very important across all pairs.

TANOS Market Gauge – FX Dashboard

Another Notes
Safe Havens woken up to the SP500 drop and DXY regaining momentum.

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

C Street keeps selling

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Market Sentiment, is turning full on bullish

TANOS Market Gauge – Market Sentiment Dashboard

Nasdaq100 movers, the volume on meme stocks and “robinhooders” stocks is amazing.

TANOS Market Gauge – Nasdaq100 Dashboard
TANOS Analytics

VIX Vs VSTOXX, take a moment to try to understand what this means. The appetite for protection in the US, far outpaces European markets. Market participants know hat something isn´t right.

TANOS Analytics

On a final note, this is scary for US pensioners. A lot of pension funds are below the 70% threshold.

Interesting Articles

The US economy stopped growing (it’s official) by: Paul Donovan

U.S. Set to Sanction Dozens of Tankers Over Venezuela-Iran Oil Trade

Events:
Monday
CNY – Industrial Prodcution / Retail Sales / Unemployment rate
JPY – Tertiary Industrial Activity
CAD – Manufacturing Sales
USD – Empire Man. Index

Tuesday
JPY – BOJ rates
CHF – SECO Forecasts
EUR – German CPI & WPI/ ZEW & German ZEW
GBP – Avg. Earnings Index / Unemployment Rate
USD – Retail Sales / Industrial Production / Powell


Wednesday
GBP – CPI / PPI
EUR – CPI
CAD – CPI
USD – Powell

Thursday
AUD – Jobs
CHF – Rates
GBP – Rates
USD – Philly Manufacturing Index/ Unemployment Claims

Friday
GBP – Retail Sales
CAD – Retail Sales
USD – Powell


8 – 12 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
It was an ok week full of mix feelings.

What worked:
Airlines: Air France and Lufthansa positions are now fully closed for some nice gains.

AG: Still long and strong.

TSLA: Things related to TSLA are very predictable, last week´s speculative play was a nice quick scalp.

GOLD: Started to rollover.

What didn´t work:
DXY / AUDUSD / USDCAD: DXY didn´t hold 98.
Monday morning It instantly invalidated both signals for AUDUSD and USDCAD.
The DXY weekness of last week was really the only story worth paying attention in the markets, despite Nasdaq new ATH.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Looks like SP500 doesn’t want to go down. It´s pointless to fight it, probably will retest ATH.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, It makes sense for gold to go down while SP500 goes higher.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
Despite my bias being bearish,I really don´t see a lot of clear as water plays for this week.
Probably markets will continue to rally, even though a correction was made on the unemployment rate, raising it +3% in the US.
I feel It´s the right time to step back and relax. Take a breather from the markets and seek new perspectives.

I will look into start accumulating VOL and watch the precious metals space carefully.

Crude
OPEC during this weekend decided to extend cuts one more month.
The WTI up channel looks really strong, 6 green weekly candles are no joke.
For me, the fundamentals don´t match the price, price should be cut in half.
There’s no point to start shorting WTI if there aren´t any signals of weakness in price. The plan for WTI is to keep watching for clear signals.

Oanda CFD WTI daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The yellow metal is retracing after a huge spike in price. I this drop as organic and the market bull sentiment is helping and accelerating the decline. I look at this as a buy the dip opportunity.
There are no doubts gold will be much higher in the future.

Oanda CFD Gold weekly & monthly
TANOS Market Gauge – Gold dashboard


SP500
SP500 clearly is unstoppable, or it seems to be as long as the FED keeps supporting it.
The FED will start reducing the amount of market buys they are currently doing and this may cause a sentiment shift, I am paying attention to that.

Things seem to be escalating in the US, riots, trade war with china, relations with Europe and corona virus. I think it´s just a matter of time until SP500 catches up to the real economy. What do I mean by this, It´s not the time to short, yet.

I got a feeling that this Sunday SP500 futures will make a fake out, It will drop on unemployment rate correction news and make a V shape on the cash session open on Monday. Pay attention to that.

There are zero clear signals of any SP500 weakness, despite there are a lot of bearish bias. Remember that decide not to trade, is also a trade. Don´t FOMO in / out. Trade your plan.

Oanda CFD daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – SP500 dashboard

SP500 2day RSI is a very good indicator for in this market conditions.
Quick overbought oversold signals intraday are very reliable.

SPX 2 day RSI

Last week an important trend golden cross happened, that´s one to keep an eye too.

SPX EMA21 VS EMA 200

Airlines
Not much to say, the plan worked nicely. Got out on the previous high.
It may pump further but profits are profits and the plan is the plan.
If they dip to lows again, the plan is to rinse and repeat.

Air France & Lufthansa daily

Shipping
I risk sounding like a crazy guy keep saying I like tankers.
Last week I said If the trend is not broken, the path of least resistance was up.
The trend just broke and I am still bullish, wheres why.
Despite Crude keeps going up. Tanker companies, specially STNG and TNK have their order books fully filled until the end of the year. They are cash positive and great companies.
I am looking into a clear buy signal.

Teekay & Scorpio daily
EMA Shipping screener

YEN & DXY
I have to be honest, I wasn´t expecting so much weakness on Yen and Dollar.
The charts look horrible.
DXY must hold 95 to remain in trend.
Yen, 0.0091190 is a pretty key level.
Will be watching this two very closely.

DXY & Yen daily

Another Notes
Safe Havens and rolling over

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

EU Major Indexes broke to their 5 year mean reversion

TANOS Market Gauge – EU Futures

Insider Sentiment, main street keeps buying, C Street keeps selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

Market Sentiment, is turning full on bullish

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

AUDJPY is a very good risk measure for risk appetite, if we overlay SPX

AUDJPY risk measure

Interesting Articles

The Global art market:
https://resources.masterworks.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Citi-Art-Market-Report-2019.pdf

Events:
Monday
JPY – Final GDP / Economic Sentiment Index
EUR – Industrial Production m/m / Sentix Investor Sentiment / Lagard Speach

Tuesday
CHF – Unemployment rate
JPY – Prelim. machine tools m/m
EUR – Final employment change
USD – NFIB small business Index / Jolts jobs openings

Wednesday
JPY – Core machinery orders
AUD – Westpac Consumer sentiment
CNY – Core PPI / PPI /New loans
USD – CPI / Core CPI / FOMC

Thursday
JPY – BSI Man. Index
EUR – EUROGROUP meetings
USD – Core PPI/ PPI / Unemployment claims

Friday
GBP – GDP m/m / Man. Production m/m / Index of services
EUR – Industrial Production m/m
USD – UoM Consumer Sentiment