8 – 12 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
It was an ok week full of mix feelings.

What worked:
Airlines: Air France and Lufthansa positions are now fully closed for some nice gains.

AG: Still long and strong.

TSLA: Things related to TSLA are very predictable, last week´s speculative play was a nice quick scalp.

GOLD: Started to rollover.

What didn´t work:
DXY / AUDUSD / USDCAD: DXY didn´t hold 98.
Monday morning It instantly invalidated both signals for AUDUSD and USDCAD.
The DXY weekness of last week was really the only story worth paying attention in the markets, despite Nasdaq new ATH.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Looks like SP500 doesn’t want to go down. It´s pointless to fight it, probably will retest ATH.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, It makes sense for gold to go down while SP500 goes higher.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
Despite my bias being bearish,I really don´t see a lot of clear as water plays for this week.
Probably markets will continue to rally, even though a correction was made on the unemployment rate, raising it +3% in the US.
I feel It´s the right time to step back and relax. Take a breather from the markets and seek new perspectives.

I will look into start accumulating VOL and watch the precious metals space carefully.

Crude
OPEC during this weekend decided to extend cuts one more month.
The WTI up channel looks really strong, 6 green weekly candles are no joke.
For me, the fundamentals don´t match the price, price should be cut in half.
There’s no point to start shorting WTI if there aren´t any signals of weakness in price. The plan for WTI is to keep watching for clear signals.

Oanda CFD WTI daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The yellow metal is retracing after a huge spike in price. I this drop as organic and the market bull sentiment is helping and accelerating the decline. I look at this as a buy the dip opportunity.
There are no doubts gold will be much higher in the future.

Oanda CFD Gold weekly & monthly
TANOS Market Gauge – Gold dashboard


SP500
SP500 clearly is unstoppable, or it seems to be as long as the FED keeps supporting it.
The FED will start reducing the amount of market buys they are currently doing and this may cause a sentiment shift, I am paying attention to that.

Things seem to be escalating in the US, riots, trade war with china, relations with Europe and corona virus. I think it´s just a matter of time until SP500 catches up to the real economy. What do I mean by this, It´s not the time to short, yet.

I got a feeling that this Sunday SP500 futures will make a fake out, It will drop on unemployment rate correction news and make a V shape on the cash session open on Monday. Pay attention to that.

There are zero clear signals of any SP500 weakness, despite there are a lot of bearish bias. Remember that decide not to trade, is also a trade. Don´t FOMO in / out. Trade your plan.

Oanda CFD daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – SP500 dashboard

SP500 2day RSI is a very good indicator for in this market conditions.
Quick overbought oversold signals intraday are very reliable.

SPX 2 day RSI

Last week an important trend golden cross happened, that´s one to keep an eye too.

SPX EMA21 VS EMA 200

Airlines
Not much to say, the plan worked nicely. Got out on the previous high.
It may pump further but profits are profits and the plan is the plan.
If they dip to lows again, the plan is to rinse and repeat.

Air France & Lufthansa daily

Shipping
I risk sounding like a crazy guy keep saying I like tankers.
Last week I said If the trend is not broken, the path of least resistance was up.
The trend just broke and I am still bullish, wheres why.
Despite Crude keeps going up. Tanker companies, specially STNG and TNK have their order books fully filled until the end of the year. They are cash positive and great companies.
I am looking into a clear buy signal.

Teekay & Scorpio daily
EMA Shipping screener

YEN & DXY
I have to be honest, I wasn´t expecting so much weakness on Yen and Dollar.
The charts look horrible.
DXY must hold 95 to remain in trend.
Yen, 0.0091190 is a pretty key level.
Will be watching this two very closely.

DXY & Yen daily

Another Notes
Safe Havens and rolling over

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

EU Major Indexes broke to their 5 year mean reversion

TANOS Market Gauge – EU Futures

Insider Sentiment, main street keeps buying, C Street keeps selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

Market Sentiment, is turning full on bullish

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

AUDJPY is a very good risk measure for risk appetite, if we overlay SPX

AUDJPY risk measure

Interesting Articles

The Global art market:
https://resources.masterworks.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Citi-Art-Market-Report-2019.pdf

Events:
Monday
JPY – Final GDP / Economic Sentiment Index
EUR – Industrial Production m/m / Sentix Investor Sentiment / Lagard Speach

Tuesday
CHF – Unemployment rate
JPY – Prelim. machine tools m/m
EUR – Final employment change
USD – NFIB small business Index / Jolts jobs openings

Wednesday
JPY – Core machinery orders
AUD – Westpac Consumer sentiment
CNY – Core PPI / PPI /New loans
USD – CPI / Core CPI / FOMC

Thursday
JPY – BSI Man. Index
EUR – EUROGROUP meetings
USD – Core PPI/ PPI / Unemployment claims

Friday
GBP – GDP m/m / Man. Production m/m / Index of services
EUR – Industrial Production m/m
USD – UoM Consumer Sentiment


2 thoughts on “8 – 12 June 2020 Trading week preparation”

  1. Hi!

    Just short feedback to say I really appreciate this reading on sundays while getting ready for another week in the markets!

    Regards,
    Nuno

    Enviado do meu iPhone

    No dia 07/06/2020, às 19:52, EOD Notes escreveu:

    
    Tiago posted: ” Every week I share a bunch of stuff.- Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts- Market Reports- Consolidated market datahttps://eod-notes.com/shared-content/From last week:It was an ok week full of mix feelings.What worked:Airlines: Air France and L”

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