15 – 19 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
From last week:
A lot of action and literally going nowhere.
SP500 is still inside It´s pattern, the DXY hold 96 and gold hold $1680.
I didn´t place any trade, the market is too overbought to buy and too bullish to sell. No clear signals on direction in my opinion and the only opportunities I am seeing are mining stocks and tankers.

Still long gold (commodity) for long term and $AG.
Last week I told I would start accumulating volatility, It´s paying nicely already.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Last week retrace may be the beginning of something. Only the future tape will tell. In my head It makes sense to go lower
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, gold It´s having a hard time to break $1740 resistance It´s an important level to watch.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
This week I am not planing to trade much. I have a lot of stuff I have to do relate to coding and the market is very choppy. As I said above, too overpriced to buy, too bullish to sell.
Next week there will be a lot of economical data and rates decisions.
My attention is focused on:
– Volatility (As an European I use LVO to track/trade it)
– Shipping /Tanker Stocks
– Airlines Stocks for pumps
– Mining Stocks

I still think WTI is overvalued. The fair price would probably be half from where It is right now due to supply / demand.
Technically It rejected and important level but the trend is not broken, yet.
The weekly close only proves indecision prevails on the market with a doji candle. Inventories are increasing a lot,again.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude Dashboard

Gold is at a very important level, a close above $1740 can be very bullish.
For me It´s a no trade range. It´s not fragile for a short but It´s not strong enough to long. The two weeks fail to close $1740 must be respected.
Between us I really hope for a dip on gold to buy more, paper and physical.

Oanda Gold CFD – daily & weekly

Whats a -6% decline from an almost 50% pump, It´s a retrace.
SP500 still is in range for bullish movements and the pattern is not broken.
A close above 3230 would be insanely bullish, a close below 2964 zone (zone because It´s a range of important levels, support, 30/180/YTD mean reversion) can be very bad and pave the path to $2800.
Watch the insane volumes on the dumps. Just incredible.

Oanda SP500 CFD – daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – SPX Dashboard

Well, the plan is the plan and the plan exists to protect us from pain.
Last week the all Airlines sector got wrecked.
I believe this sector still have a lot of pain in the future but one thing is certain, a lot of money and opportunity will appear in this sector.
I will make sure I will be here waiting as an alligator.
Any retest of the lows is a buy with stops in place.

Air France & Lufthansa Daily

Miners are not for all investor s a lot of pain can be delivered before profits appear.
The two miners I track very closely are $AG and $GOLD. Both are having pretty good runs and the correlation with gold are uncanny. I am looking into adding more to $AG and create a new position in $GOLD. Lets see how Gold unfolds this week.

First Majestic & Barrick Gold daily

All the FX space are very volatile, dozens of pip movements in several hours across all majors.
This is a time where mean reversion strategies shine. As you can see this levels are very important across all pairs.

TANOS Market Gauge – FX Dashboard

Another Notes
Safe Havens woken up to the SP500 drop and DXY regaining momentum.

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

C Street keeps selling


Market Sentiment, is turning full on bullish

TANOS Market Gauge – Market Sentiment Dashboard

Nasdaq100 movers, the volume on meme stocks and “robinhooders” stocks is amazing.

TANOS Market Gauge – Nasdaq100 Dashboard
TANOS Analytics

VIX Vs VSTOXX, take a moment to try to understand what this means. The appetite for protection in the US, far outpaces European markets. Market participants know hat something isn´t right.

TANOS Analytics

On a final note, this is scary for US pensioners. A lot of pension funds are below the 70% threshold.

Interesting Articles

The US economy stopped growing (it’s official) by: Paul Donovan

U.S. Set to Sanction Dozens of Tankers Over Venezuela-Iran Oil Trade

CNY – Industrial Prodcution / Retail Sales / Unemployment rate
JPY – Tertiary Industrial Activity
CAD – Manufacturing Sales
USD – Empire Man. Index

JPY – BOJ rates
CHF – SECO Forecasts
EUR – German CPI & WPI/ ZEW & German ZEW
GBP – Avg. Earnings Index / Unemployment Rate
USD – Retail Sales / Industrial Production / Powell

USD – Powell

AUD – Jobs
CHF – Rates
GBP – Rates
USD – Philly Manufacturing Index/ Unemployment Claims

GBP – Retail Sales
CAD – Retail Sales
USD – Powell

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