22 – 26 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
It wasn´t a trade week for me, I followed the plan on SP500.
Went short on the retest of the breakdown but the tape went against me and was a 5 point loss.
I am focused on coding as this isn´t my kind of market to trade. It´s too overvalued for me.
Taking the time to improve in other areas is good too and not trading is also a trade. Capital conservation is the key to be profitable.

Still long $AG and $LVO (Lyxor S&P 500 VIX Futures Enhanced Roll UCITS ETF – C-EUR).

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Started to turn early on the week but finished strong. I still believe the path of least resistance is down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed above $1740 may be a good sign.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
The plan for next week is too watch SP500, Tanks,Miners and gold.
SP500 is trading like nothing is wrong in the world. Eventually reality will catch up, is just a matter of being prepared.
I want to keep accumulating volatility (LVO) and probably re-enter some miners. I am still looking into buying tankers but I am not seeing the bottom,yet.

Be aware of PMI numbers, market can swing violently.

WTI
$WTI failed to close above 0.38 Fibonacci. My plan is still not touching It.
It´s really hard to trade consciously the oil market the last few weeks, the trend is clearly up and I am not fighting it. Still on the side that $WTI is overvalued by at least $15. Inventories are still rising and the demand is still low.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly

Gold
I have a lot of strong opinions on the yellow metal. Things for short term are reaching a decision point, and I honestly think the path of least resistance is down.
I really don´t know how this will play out, SP500 can drop and gold can sky rocket or both can go down at the same time.
The fact is that for long term gold is poised to shine like the sun.
The pattern It is forming is a massive cup and handle.
Every drop between $1600-$1570 is a buy hand over fist.

Oanda CFD Gold daily & Weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Gold Dashboard


SP500
It´s kind of a stand off. Right now SP500 is on a no trade zone for me.
I am watching a break above or below the channel.
I am pretty vocal about saying SP500 is overvalued but trading it technically is basically gambling nowadays. So the trick is to watch the market mood and follow the trend. I am not saying I am buying If the channel breaks above, I am saying I am not shorting it.

Oanda CFD – SP500 daily & Weekly

Trade ranges are still below from where It is trading.

TANOS Analytics – SP500 trading zones

Miners
$GDX and $GDXJ just broke out last Friday and gold showed up for the party too.

GDX and GDXJ Milan stock exchange

I am eyeing a $GOLD and $BTG breakout from the current patterns to enter.

$GOLD & $BTG daily

VIX
I side with the guys that don´t find very useful to TA the VIX. But I do find very useful the signals It provides.
VIX term structure, provides de insight and demand for protection in the future.

http://vixcentral.com/

VIX spreads from #2 and #8 contract when below -2.5 usually provides signals for market tops.

VIX #2 & #8 spreads

VIX vs SP500 Futures volume correlation is been providing clear insights and direction. It is actually pointing out for a VIX correction down which can mean SP500 to go up.

TANOS Analytics – SPX Volume Vs VIX

Tankers
One thing to keep an eye related to tankers is the Baltic Dry Index which finished the week pretty strong.

stockcharts.com/

Both $STNG and $TNK are holding the support, lets see how they behave on the Monday opening.

$TNK and $STNG daily

Another Notes

Insiders selling massively

https://www.quiverquant.com
http://www.openinsider.com/

5YR Government CDS are increasing

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/sovereign-cds/

Interesting Articles

A friend forward me this one, and It´s pretty good.
Martin Wolf: what trade wars tell us from ft.com

Events:
Monday
GBP – CBI Industrial Orders
CNY -CB Leading Index
EUR – Consumer Confidence
USD – Existing home sales

Tuesday
AUD – PMIs
JPY – PMIs
EUR – PMIs
GBP – PMIs
USD – PMIs / Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday
NZD – Rates decision
EUR – German Ifo / Belgian NBB Business Climate

Thursday
JPY – All Industries Activity
EUR – German Gfk Consumer
USD – Goods / GDP / Unemployment claims

Friday
JPY – Tokyo CPI
USD – PCE


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