29 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 – Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
No new trades were added.
Still long $AG and $LVO.
Crazy news on covid19 cases across the world.

Apart from watching the markets I have been coding and re watching Sopranos, because why not, such a good show.
Take time to enjoy yourself. Markets can be very exhausting and Its easy to get burned-out.

Be aware that next week is a big week in the US because of the 4th of July, there will be a lot of ghost trading desks and low liquidity,stay safe.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    The spooz started to rollover, no damage was done yet, only the trend was broken.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Gold is starting to get interesting
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    DXY looks grim, more below.

Next Week:
For me, It will be another wait and see week.
What I will be looking:

FB
A lot of companies are pulling out of Facebook ads, the recent one is Pepsi.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/pepsi-facebook-ad-boycott
A huge part of Facebook´s revenue is based on ads, this might trigger a sell off.
Technically the chart looks fragile, if 203 breaks and window to fill the down gap opens.

Facebook daily chart

WTI
The trend in theory broke down, although the major support did not broke.
It can play as a text book retest of the brake down, I will wait for a close below support to confirm the price movement.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

CoT report is showing a huge spike down on the futures Open Interest.

TANOS CoT Dashboard – WTI

Gold
It´s the moment of truth for gold, it manages to close above the previous high or more consolidation is in order. A close above the previous high will trigger a lot of buying signals, stay tuned.

Oanda CFD – GOLD daily

One thing to pay attention, the GVZ is approaching It´s mean reversion. If it actually reverts this can be the buy signal a lot of people is waiting for.

TANOS Market Gauge – GOLD Dashboard


SP500
The Spooz is unstoppable, despite the trend being broken this means nothing until the first big support is broken, last time the support was instantly bought.
Zone to watch is the 0.38 fib level ~2935.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily

Approximately 60% of SP500 constituents are below the bull/bear line.

TANOS Market Gauge – SP500 Dashboard

CoT for SP500 futures had a huge spike down on Open Interest.

TANOS CoT Dashboard – SP500

SPY MTD has seen a massive cumulative outflows.

https://www.trackinsight.com/en/

Shipping and NATGAS
Freight rates have been rising since early June, check the Baltic Dry Index.

https://stockcharts.com

NATGAS is super cheap, despite the massive oversupply I do think It´s a great opportunity to buy. Bare in mind we are in the summer. Protect yourself against seasonality. If we have another lock down in the winter this can sky rocket.

Oanda CFD Natgas daily

Despite shipping stocks being slaughtered last week, the fundamentals are getting bullish by the day. I still don´t have positions on the stocks I mentioned, I am looking for a clear price reversal before diving in.

STNG & NAT daily charts

The Euro & The Dollar
This can be a very interesting thing, IF It actually happens.
The Euro (EURUSD) is setting up for what It looks to be a bull flag.
If this flag breaks up It can start a new EURUSD bull trend.

Oanda EURUSD daily

What this actually means for the dollar, the DXY is heavyweight on EURUSD.
This, associated with It´s technical setup can sink the dollar to new short term lows.

DXY daily chart

Another component of the DXY is the GBPUSD pair which recently broke down and rejected the retest of the support.

Oanda GBPUSD Weekly

Why all of this? Well, the EURGBP pair also know and BMW-Jaguar spread is a synthetic pair based on the spread between EURUSD and GBPUSD.
The pair is now on a very important level -0.90 which has been rejected consistently for a lot of time. If all the above plays accordingly, this can be a huge turn around for the bulls on the pair.

Oanda EURGBP daily

Special note for EURAUD and the correlation between the pair and the SP500.
They are correlated negatively, which means when SP500 goes up, the pair goes down and vice versa.
On a SP500 rollover and EUR strength the pair can sky rocket as It did in February.

Oanda EURAUD daily

Another Notes

Sentiment:

TANOS Market Gauge- Sentiment Dashboard

FX:

TANOS Market Gauge – FX Dashboard

Safe Havens:

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

Interesting Articles

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/platts-4-commodity-charts-watch-week-3

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/06/24/ready-for-the-re-bal/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1275589332955512839.html?refreshed=yes

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– PMIs
– USD Factory Orders and Jobs data
– Powell Testify

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.