27 – 31 July Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
This week off on my trading plan works wonders for me.
I feel energized and ready to rumble again.

Added a new report on the free goodies, SP500 components price targets.

Still long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Closed the week red, but the trend is not broken.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    What a ride! I think FOMO is starting to kick in for a lot of people. I like to buy my gold cheap.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    It´s like a text book play, on any sign of DXY weakness, commodities rise.

Next Week:
This week I will try to do something different. I will make an overview of what’s on my radar. I won’t talk anything specific, just throwing things to generate thoughts.

Kicking off this week, the earnings calendar is packed. A lot of tech in the mix, I am betting on a lot of surprises. Special notes for $FB, $MCD, $CAT, $V and $BA.

Earnings Whispers

Another important thing is the decreasing volume on the tape across all US markets.

TANOS Analytics – Market Tape Dashboard

WTI
WTI is though as hell, the market is swinging left and right and It just doesn’t come down.
The $42 zone is near resistance (Oanda CFD).
The rising wedge pattern is not broken, yet. I would like to see a retest of the $42 level and then a clean break of the pattern.
If this happens, I feel confident to get back in the mix trading WTI.

Oanda WTI CFD daily
TANOS Analytics WTI mean reversions

Markets have no interest on WTI futures, Open Interest is decreasing every week.

TANOS Analytics WTI Vs WTI Futures OI

Gold
Amazing, I started this quarter waiting for a gold pullback, and what a flop.
I won’t fomo in. I am long gold on the physical side since early $1500 but I have to confess that my finger is itching with this rally.
In my head, It makes sense for gold to pull back a little to alleviate indicators stress. When it does, I will probably create a new small position.
The chart, It´s extended, RSI is at 82 and It´s even flirting above the upper Bollinger Band.
The Standard Deviation -1 may be a very good support point.

One thing to note, Gold broke out on almost every cross.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
TANOS Analytics Gold Standard Deviations
TANOS Analytics Gold mean reversions


SP500
No one and I mean literally, no one knows what’s next for SP500.
There are a lot of guesses and a lot of predictions but the tape doesn´t lie. People don´t have the courage to bet against the market or the guts too long it.
That being said, The trend is not broken and It´s possible to visit all-time highs.
On technicals, the upper Bollinger Band is acting as an effective resistance.
SP500 is trading above all important mean reversion lines, which is a red flag for me.
I will be looking at a clean break of the 3140 level.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
TANOS Analytics SP500 mean reversions
TANOS Analytics SP500 standard deviations
TANOS Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

SP500 futures volume in correlation with VIX usually proxies the SP500 next move.It´s an inverted signal, so If the aims down, the SP500 will go up.

TANOS Analytics SP500 Volume Vs VIX settle

The tale of the dollar
What a dumpster fire. CoT report shows Leveraged funds and money managers are going short dollars.

TANOS Analytics CoT DXY

A few weeks ago, I talked about a trade involving EURUSD and GBPUSD and It´s spread, EURGBP.
EURUSD still has room to go and from a long perspective, GBPUSD seems weak. The Brexit deal may be pulled out of the table pushing EURGBP higher.
What I am looking at EURGBP, the 0.90 level is a heavy resistance so I would like to see a consolidation pattern above it. A few more daily candles, on-trend and above 0.90.

Oanda ERUSD and GBPUSD daily
Oanda ERUGBP daily

Other pairs to watch on DXY weakness are USDCHF and USDJPY. Both seem ready to die.

Oanda USDCHF and USDJPY

Another Notes
Sentiment is diverging with the market trend:

TANOS Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Insiders keep selling:

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Safe Havens are seeing huge bids:

TANOS Market Gauge Safe Havens Dashboard

Gold Vs VIX correlation, points VIX to go higher:

TANOS Analytics Gold Vs VIX

Gold Vs Yen, points Yen to go higher:

TANOS Analytics Gold Vs YEN

Interesting Articles

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1283857596089282565.html (Thread about  CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio)

https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/07/21/harley-bassmans-trades-for-the-election/

https://www.ft.com/content/ccb46309-bba4-4fb7-b3fa-ecb17ea0e9cf?mc_cid=65f3e3283e&mc_eid=2fd1a72551 (Jim Chanos: ‘We are in the golden age of fraud’)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/tracking-the-growing-wave-of-oil-gas-bankruptcies-in-2020/

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– FOMC
– USD Cash rates
– USD GDP
– GER GDP
– CNY Manufacturing PMI

20 – 24 July 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
A weird week, earnings season just started with a bag of mix feelings.
SP500 is trapped below 3230.6 (Oanda SP500 CFD) and gold 1800 breakout was kinda of a fluke, lacked strength and follow thru.

Netflix earnings, what a cringe thing to watch. I think a lot of weird surprises are going to happen this earnings season.

Still long $AG,also added to my $LVO position.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    It´s trapped and can go above 3230.6, at the same time, It refused to brake down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Can´t close above 1800 with conviction, should be a red alert.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    DXY is hanging in there by a thread, It´s one of the trades I am watching Vs the EUR and GBP.

Next Week:
It´s earnings season, again.
From time to time, I found that taking a breather from the markets helps clear my mind and bias.

It´s not vacations, but a breather. A step out of the arena to catch my breath and compose myself. I will still be watching some assets, but I will take my time to relive some stress. I won´t be taking any new positions during this week,at least I am not planing too.

I am sorry if you were looking for new ideas, these rest weeks are part of my trading plan. I can´t go 24/7 for very long periods of time. I need to hit the brakes now and then.

All the reports and data will be available as always, If you have any question or just wanna chat about markets, hit me up on twitter I will respond asap.

Have fun!

13 -17 July 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a weird time to live. Everything is getting worse by the week and the markets keep pumping. SP500 is an immortal god, It gets stabbed, jabbed, slice and diced and keeps fighting and pumping like It´s no ones business.

Haven´t placed a trade, just stood back and watched, made a few plans and configured new alerts. My setups didn´t trigger sell or buy signals.

Coded a lot this week, had a lot of chores and code cleanup to do.

Started reading the principles of MMT and Frederic Bastiat “The Law”.

Still long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Quoting Dave Portnoy “stocks can only go up” It seems more believable by the day.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Having a difficult time to stay above $1800.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
Well, not much to do despite watching SP500 and the US10Y yield.
To overvalued to buy, to risky to sell.

WTI
It´s in a stand still, looking to WTI chart is like watching a western, the battle between and outlaw and a sheriff. Bulls Vs bears waiting to see to blinks first.
It´s flirting with overbought levels, the 200dma is acting as resistance.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

One thing to bare in mind, and this actually bared fruit to me, is WTI correlation with TYX. Usually TYX moves first and WTI follows.

TANOS Analytics – Crude futures and TYX

Gold
The struggle for gold is real and maybe the bull side is a little bit too overcrowded. I have been calling for a retrace for a while and I think It would be very healthy to shake some weak hands off.

Oanda CFD Gold – daily


SP500
The trend is not broken and every dip is bought heavily.It´s impossible and unwise to fight it.
The top of he BB is acting as resistance.

Oanda CFD SP500 – daily

The VIX and ES1 futures volume correlation is trying to signal that the VIX is coming back, hard.

TANOS Analytics – VIX Vs ES1 volume

Tape volume is decreasing, that´s a thing to keep an eye too.

TANOS Analytics – Market Tape Volume

VOL
It´s flatland united across the charts. And It´s sad, very sad.

TANOS Market Gauge – Vol dashboard

EURO & The Dollar
This tale is a funny one, this week I will only share the CoTs because the idea was explained last week.
The euro longs are increasing a tone every week, bare in mind that at It´s current level there are a massive trendline down.

TANOS Analytics – CoT dashboard

Dollar longs are decreasing and DXY actually looks very weak.

TANOS Analytics – CoT dashboard
DXY & EURUSD

US10Y yield
One of me most important things to keep an eye is the US10Y yield.
Usually the US10Y preludes the SP500. This puppy looks It wants to go down.

US10Y yield

Another Notes

Sentiment, a bag of mixed feelings

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

JXY/VIX Vs SP500 is indicating a SP500 total collapse.

Risk appetite gauge

Commodities to stocks ratio at a point that can breakout.

Commodities to stocks ratio

Interesting Articles
Very nice reading about TIPs
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1280401374199427073.html?refreshed=yes

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR,CAD cash rates
– USD Retail sales and Jobs data
– CNY Industrial prod
– EUR Industrial prod

6 – 10 July Trading week prep

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
Its hard not to FOMO in this market, everything goes up. This market seems relentlessness and no one can bring it down.
I have been wondering if remaining on the side lines is the right move.
Buying at this level feels like I have a 19 on blackjack and I am screaming “hit me”, It´s not nice odds to play with.

It´s hard to stay on the side line waiting, watching and not taking part. In the end I feel this will end up badly. When, I dont know.

Been coding a lot, trying some new stuff out and automating a lot of server maintenance.
Started re-reading Orwell’s books, felt like I cloud take a lot from his dystopias.

Long $LVO and $AG

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    This just goes up and up. Bad news are good news. You the hell understands what´s going on.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Had a nice push early ion the week, finished weak and below key values
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Same from last week,grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I will keep looking for opportunities and setups.
I am not seeing any at the moment, just have to wait for them to come to me.

Meanwhile, will do more code stuff and probably start to plan a hosting migration for the blog.I want to provide more free content but my current host is very limited.

WTI
It´s moving in a awkward way. Moving up below the last trend line.
The inventories on WTI kept withdrawing and the prince didn’t flinch.
The 200 DMA keeps acting as a resistance.
The demand remains low, It´s a wait and see mood.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

Gold
Failed to close above the previous high. The technical setup is also bearish.
Several bearish divergences are triggering on the daily chart (red triangles).

Oanda Gold CFD daily

One thing to have in mind is the decoupling from the SP500 / Gold ratio correlations.
The ratio is moving towards bullish SP500 boosting the idea that gold need to consolidate a bit.

SPX / Gold Ratio
TANOS Analytics – Gold mean reversions

Also watching the XAUXAG for a trend break or continuation. In case of continuation, It can be huge for silver.

Oanda XAUAG CFD daily


SP500
The resistance on 3150 It´s proving hard to break.
It´s hard to have an opinion, despite my bias being bearish, I cant bring myself to short it.

Oanda CFD SP500 – daily

Bull / Bear line is showing indecision in the markets.

TANOS Market Gauge – SPX

Mean Reversion lines.

TANOS Analytics – SP500 mean reversions

For this week I will be looking into two signals for the SP500:
The correlation between ES1 futures volume and VIX settle ( I already talked about this a few weeks ago). It´s providing a bullish signal for the SP500 by providing a positive correlation to movement (VIX downtrend).

SP500 Volume Vs VIX Close

And SP500 2 day RSI is reaching oversold.

SP500 2D RSI

Dollar / Euro
This isn’t happening as fast as I though It would. Despite DXY keeps diving, the EURUSD and GBPUSD are holding in range. It´s a trade to keep watching.

Oanda EURUSD GBPUSD daily
TANOS Analytics – EURUSD mean reversion
TANOS Analytics – GBPUSD mean reversion

Shipping
I know I risk to sound like a broken record with this. This is going to be a very good trade once It starts moving to the right side. It´s a waiting game to buy of a trend reversal.
BDI keeps pumping.

https://stockcharts.com

Another Notes

Sentiment turned bearish. Despite SP500 and Nasdaq keep going to the moon. Investors are starting to be really bearish.

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment

Safe havens are moving sideways.

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens

Insiders sold massively during the past week.

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

–Nothing I felt worth sharing

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– USD ISM Manufacturing index
– CAD Jobs
– USD Jobs
– AUD Cash rate decision