13 -17 July 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.

From last week:
What a weird time to live. Everything is getting worse by the week and the markets keep pumping. SP500 is an immortal god, It gets stabbed, jabbed, slice and diced and keeps fighting and pumping like It´s no ones business.

Haven´t placed a trade, just stood back and watched, made a few plans and configured new alerts. My setups didn´t trigger sell or buy signals.

Coded a lot this week, had a lot of chores and code cleanup to do.

Started reading the principles of MMT and Frederic Bastiat “The Law”.

Still long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Quoting Dave Portnoy “stocks can only go up” It seems more believable by the day.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Having a difficult time to stay above $1800.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
Well, not much to do despite watching SP500 and the US10Y yield.
To overvalued to buy, to risky to sell.

It´s in a stand still, looking to WTI chart is like watching a western, the battle between and outlaw and a sheriff. Bulls Vs bears waiting to see to blinks first.
It´s flirting with overbought levels, the 200dma is acting as resistance.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

One thing to bare in mind, and this actually bared fruit to me, is WTI correlation with TYX. Usually TYX moves first and WTI follows.

TANOS Analytics – Crude futures and TYX

The struggle for gold is real and maybe the bull side is a little bit too overcrowded. I have been calling for a retrace for a while and I think It would be very healthy to shake some weak hands off.

Oanda CFD Gold – daily

The trend is not broken and every dip is bought heavily.It´s impossible and unwise to fight it.
The top of he BB is acting as resistance.

Oanda CFD SP500 – daily

The VIX and ES1 futures volume correlation is trying to signal that the VIX is coming back, hard.

TANOS Analytics – VIX Vs ES1 volume

Tape volume is decreasing, that´s a thing to keep an eye too.

TANOS Analytics – Market Tape Volume

It´s flatland united across the charts. And It´s sad, very sad.

TANOS Market Gauge – Vol dashboard

EURO & The Dollar
This tale is a funny one, this week I will only share the CoTs because the idea was explained last week.
The euro longs are increasing a tone every week, bare in mind that at It´s current level there are a massive trendline down.

TANOS Analytics – CoT dashboard

Dollar longs are decreasing and DXY actually looks very weak.

TANOS Analytics – CoT dashboard

US10Y yield
One of me most important things to keep an eye is the US10Y yield.
Usually the US10Y preludes the SP500. This puppy looks It wants to go down.

US10Y yield

Another Notes

Sentiment, a bag of mixed feelings

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

JXY/VIX Vs SP500 is indicating a SP500 total collapse.

Risk appetite gauge

Commodities to stocks ratio at a point that can breakout.

Commodities to stocks ratio

Interesting Articles
Very nice reading about TIPs

Check the full calendar here:

Special notes on:
– EUR,CAD cash rates
– USD Retail sales and Jobs data
– CNY Industrial prod
– EUR Industrial prod

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