27 – 31 July Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
This week off on my trading plan works wonders for me.
I feel energized and ready to rumble again.

Added a new report on the free goodies, SP500 components price targets.

Still long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Closed the week red, but the trend is not broken.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    What a ride! I think FOMO is starting to kick in for a lot of people. I like to buy my gold cheap.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    It´s like a text book play, on any sign of DXY weakness, commodities rise.

Next Week:
This week I will try to do something different. I will make an overview of what’s on my radar. I won’t talk anything specific, just throwing things to generate thoughts.

Kicking off this week, the earnings calendar is packed. A lot of tech in the mix, I am betting on a lot of surprises. Special notes for $FB, $MCD, $CAT, $V and $BA.

Earnings Whispers

Another important thing is the decreasing volume on the tape across all US markets.

TANOS Analytics – Market Tape Dashboard

WTI
WTI is though as hell, the market is swinging left and right and It just doesn’t come down.
The $42 zone is near resistance (Oanda CFD).
The rising wedge pattern is not broken, yet. I would like to see a retest of the $42 level and then a clean break of the pattern.
If this happens, I feel confident to get back in the mix trading WTI.

Oanda WTI CFD daily
TANOS Analytics WTI mean reversions

Markets have no interest on WTI futures, Open Interest is decreasing every week.

TANOS Analytics WTI Vs WTI Futures OI

Gold
Amazing, I started this quarter waiting for a gold pullback, and what a flop.
I won’t fomo in. I am long gold on the physical side since early $1500 but I have to confess that my finger is itching with this rally.
In my head, It makes sense for gold to pull back a little to alleviate indicators stress. When it does, I will probably create a new small position.
The chart, It´s extended, RSI is at 82 and It´s even flirting above the upper Bollinger Band.
The Standard Deviation -1 may be a very good support point.

One thing to note, Gold broke out on almost every cross.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
TANOS Analytics Gold Standard Deviations
TANOS Analytics Gold mean reversions


SP500
No one and I mean literally, no one knows what’s next for SP500.
There are a lot of guesses and a lot of predictions but the tape doesn´t lie. People don´t have the courage to bet against the market or the guts too long it.
That being said, The trend is not broken and It´s possible to visit all-time highs.
On technicals, the upper Bollinger Band is acting as an effective resistance.
SP500 is trading above all important mean reversion lines, which is a red flag for me.
I will be looking at a clean break of the 3140 level.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
TANOS Analytics SP500 mean reversions
TANOS Analytics SP500 standard deviations
TANOS Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

SP500 futures volume in correlation with VIX usually proxies the SP500 next move.It´s an inverted signal, so If the aims down, the SP500 will go up.

TANOS Analytics SP500 Volume Vs VIX settle

The tale of the dollar
What a dumpster fire. CoT report shows Leveraged funds and money managers are going short dollars.

TANOS Analytics CoT DXY

A few weeks ago, I talked about a trade involving EURUSD and GBPUSD and It´s spread, EURGBP.
EURUSD still has room to go and from a long perspective, GBPUSD seems weak. The Brexit deal may be pulled out of the table pushing EURGBP higher.
What I am looking at EURGBP, the 0.90 level is a heavy resistance so I would like to see a consolidation pattern above it. A few more daily candles, on-trend and above 0.90.

Oanda ERUSD and GBPUSD daily
Oanda ERUGBP daily

Other pairs to watch on DXY weakness are USDCHF and USDJPY. Both seem ready to die.

Oanda USDCHF and USDJPY

Another Notes
Sentiment is diverging with the market trend:

TANOS Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Insiders keep selling:

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Safe Havens are seeing huge bids:

TANOS Market Gauge Safe Havens Dashboard

Gold Vs VIX correlation, points VIX to go higher:

TANOS Analytics Gold Vs VIX

Gold Vs Yen, points Yen to go higher:

TANOS Analytics Gold Vs YEN

Interesting Articles

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1283857596089282565.html (Thread about  CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio)

https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/07/21/harley-bassmans-trades-for-the-election/

https://www.ft.com/content/ccb46309-bba4-4fb7-b3fa-ecb17ea0e9cf?mc_cid=65f3e3283e&mc_eid=2fd1a72551 (Jim Chanos: ‘We are in the golden age of fraud’)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/tracking-the-growing-wave-of-oil-gas-bankruptcies-in-2020/

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– FOMC
– USD Cash rates
– USD GDP
– GER GDP
– CNY Manufacturing PMI

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *