3 – 7 August trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a crazy week for stocks and FX.
DXY had a breakdown, SP500 keeps on living despite bad fundamentals.
I haven´t placed a single trade.

Still long $AG and $LVO

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Crazy movements on Thursday and Friday´s close. No one on their right mind would short the SP500.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Road to $2000?
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    A bag of mixed feelings, was expecting better.

Next Week:
I will start the host migration, I will get the new website up and running with all the new and cooler features.
I usually don’t trade much during August, I take the month to do other stuff and have mental rest.
It´s important to have a break from the markets and as things are going, market movements can drive anyone crazy.
Trading not being my only source of income I don’t feel the pressure to keep trading all the time.
I will keep giving my opinions and insights about markets and may add a few positions but the main focus will be the website migration.

Earnings:

Earnings Whispers

WTI
The rejection on the $42 level is clear, but the pitchfork is holding strong, markets are doing crazy stuff. It´s smart not to trade. Trading is not gambling, know your risk.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Gold
The urge to go long is starting to be an itch I can’t scratch.
Fortunately, my trading rules forbid me to long gold at this time.
I am not saying gold cant go higher, I do believe gold can go much higher, but at this time the risks outpaces the reward as the movement is too extended in my opinion.
I build my positions on gold a long time ago, so I am totally fine sitting back and waiting. If a movement below $1800 happens, I will gladly add to my stack.

Oanda CFD Gold daily


SP500
Those last two trading days were crazy, completely bananas.
It´s crazy to short it, the moves It makes are wild and can wipe you out badly.
On the other hand, It´s crazy to long in on so many uncertainties. The only gambling I do is poker, and even in that, I choose my odds wisely.
The upside is capped, so bears got that rolling for them.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

The dollar
Last week I made a call on EURGBP depending on how It would trade in the next few days.
The call was a long EURGBP depending 0.90 held above the trend line. Well, It didn´t, in fact, It pooped the bed.
GBPUSD had a huge rally but it seems to be capped on 1.31.
The dollar will keep getting weaker I think, the play might be commodities for a while. But for commodities to shine I think the dust must settle on the world chaos we are in.

DDXY and GBPUSD daily charts
TANOS Analytics DXY CoT Dashboard
TANOS Analytics GBP CoT Dashboard

FX
During these weird times, I like to always keep an eye on CAD & AUD Vs JPY. JPY seems to be super strong and CAD and AUD look week, If a second have of corona hits, they might fall off a cliff.

CADJPY & AUDJPY daily
TANOS Analytics JPY CoT Dashboard

EURAUD is also an interesting pair to watch due to correlation with SP500, an inverse one.

EURUAD daily

Airlines
Should be kept an eye on, If the break the SAR range, they might pop for a nice profit like last time.

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– Man. & Services PMIs
– USD Jobs data
-AUD & GBP cash rates

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