10-14 August 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Last week I told I am taking the all month sort of off.
I will be in front of the screen, but not trading or searching for opportunities.

Every year I postpone as much as I can of doing boring tasks, so every year I take the entire August month to do these tasks.

This week I finished the host migration, everything went smoothly.
The blog was backed up and deployed nicely and the dashboard can now be found at http://tanos-trader.eod-notes.com/

Still long $AG and $LVO.
Admission of guilt, I made a few scalp trades on the Portuguese stock market.
Some companies were a target for a takeover and the priced pumped hard.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SONC.LS
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SONI.LS

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Started to turn early on the week but finished strong. I still believe the path of least resistance is down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed above $1740 may be a good sign.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
More earnings:

Earnings Whispers

Special notes for Nio, Cisco, Barrick Gold, Draft Kings, and Farfetch

Overall, markets are pretty much in raging bull mode. There’s no point to fight this movement. I am very bearish based on the “real” numbers but I won’t open a short until I see a true rollover.
There’s plenty of opportunities in the market, and not making a trade, is also a trade.

WTI
There are not a lot of interest in WTI at the moment. OI is decreasing a lot every week.
On the other hand, despite not having a lot of OI, the price is hanging on.
Technically, it looks weak. It had a major rejection and it is testing the bottom of the rising wedge and the pitchfork.

Oanda CFD WTI daily
TANOS Analytics WTI Vs OI

Other note, the correlation between Crude futures and TYX, keeps aiming for a lower price per barrel.

TANOS Anaçytics Crude oil futures Vs TYX

Gold
What a bull run. Last Friday, gold closed lower. I don’t see it as an end of a massive gold bull run but as a correction that´s due.

DXY shorts are staking on the CoT report, despite last Friday dead cat bounce.
DXY may have more upside on the bounce and Gold might retrace a little bit more. I see it as organic and healthy.

TANOS Dashboard CoT USD

Another thing to consider is the GVZ $28 level, usually Gold struggles to break above it.

TANOS Market Gauge – Gold dashboard


SP500
We are going to test the all-time highs probably. Eight straight green days with very big ranges.
The trend is still up and untouched.

Oanda CFD sp500 daily

Overall components are still above 250DMA

TANOS Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

One thing to take into consideration, the market tape has been decreasing substantially for the last few weeks.

TANOS Market Gauge Market Tape Dashboard

Bitcoin
What a run, very nice move. I am not a bitcoiner, but I recognize It´s becoming an asset class. I own some since 2016 and used to trade it heavily.
Maybe It´s the beginning of something new, a new trend. Short term, I think the upside is capped.

TANOS Crypto Dashboard BTCUSD

Other Notes
Safe havens are pumping and moving in unison:

TANOS Marker Gauge Safe Havens Dashboard

Insiders are selling hand over fist, everything is very expensive.

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Interesting Articles

The consequences of ‘infinite money’ – Chris Irons talks with Alpha Trade
https://bit.ly/30vq6BA

Why Investors Keep Losing Money Betting Against The Hong Kong Dollar Peg
https://bit.ly/2PuQEwk

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-demand-insight/end-game-for-oil-opec-prepares-for-an-age-of-dwindling-demand-idUSKCN24T0KT

https://www.rigzone.com/news/ihs_markit_raises_oil_price_forecast-07-aug-2020-162951-article

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– ZEW
– USD Jobs data / CPI / PPI and Mortage delinquencies
– CNY Industrial production
– AUD Jobs data

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