17 -21 August 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of free stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
I had a great week.
Finally, my trading systems came out of beta and are now fully Live.
All the free data and signals are now provided by the new live environments with the new dedicated databases.

I dedicated very little to the markets this week, I was on a mission to have this ready.

I am still long $AG, which I am watching very closely. A close below $11 is a stop loss for me. Maybe this correction on Silver isn´t done yet.

Stil long $LVO too, volatility is being suppressed, but when it pops, It will be a hard pop. Accumulating is the best thing to do in my opinion.

Added a new section to the site, Data tables.
This section contains three new tables with:
– ETF price Vs NAV
– SP500 constituents price targets
– Nasdaq100 constituents price targets

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    We touched the all-time highs on SPX cash session and immediately rejected it.
    Maybe that’s all we needed to start rolling over.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    As I thought last week, a massive correction happened, I don´t think the bull run is over, But I would like to see a new retest on the last week lows.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
More earnings, watching closely the Chinese ADRs, Target, and Nvidia.

Earnings Whispers

There is a lot of action happening on the FX market too, the yen looks really strong and needs to play catch up to Gold. On the other hand, the EUR looks extended and Its fairy tale looks that It will end badly with a lot of bag holders.

WTI
We just had the fourth straight week of inventories drawdowns and the price went nowhere. This might be a signal.
I honestly, fundamentally don’t know where the path leads, but when it´s decided It will happen fast.

Market Gauge – Crude Dashboard

Technically the Pitchfork trend was broken but the rising wedge is still intact.
The $42.30 level on Oanda WTI CFD is acting as a strong resistance and triggering a bunch of bearish oscillator divergencies.
On the daily chart, this is clearly a no trading zone. We need to watch what happens next.

Oanda WTI CFD daily chart

Gold
Last week correction happened faster than I thought It would happen.
This opportunity is clearly a buy, but I am betting on a retest of the last week’s lows. If that doesn’t happen, a break and retest of the $1954 on Oanda CFD is a buy.

Oanda Gold CFD daily

Miners
Things are looking dicey for miners. Gold and Silver are retracing and miners are feeling It.
The miners I usually track entered in SAR sell signals.

Miners Dashboard SAR

On the bight side, The up trend is still intact and strong.

Miners Dashboard 200EMA Vs 21EMA

SP500
The test of the all-time highs was a no brainer. I have been talking about this for a few weeks. If a sell-off is going to happen, now It´s probably the time.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

The SPX cash session chart have three massive gaps that are magnets to fill If the price starts to rollover.

SPX Cash Sessions

41% of the Index constituents are still below the 50DMA.
PE ratios are back on the highs.

Market Gauge – SPX Dashboard

Overall market tape action is decreasing by the day and stocks keep reaching new all-time highs. That´s fishy.

Market Gauge – Market Tape

Vol
I am not one to TA the VIX, but it looks that is coiling for a pop.

Market Gauge – VOL Dashboard

FX
USD and YEN CoTs look really interesting, USD shorts keep staking and YEN longs are increasing.
UUP is falling off a cliff too.
92.80 is a very important support for DXY, If it fails, the next big one is at 88.
Hold your hat if it breaks.
One thing to keep in mind, the correlation between YEN and Gold points to Yen to go much higher.

CoT Dashboard USD
CoT Dashboard YEN
UUP – Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
DXY weekly chart
YEN and Gold correlation

EURUSD is at the top of the downtrend channel. This channel exists since 2008 so It´s a very serious channel to have into consideration.
The long EURUSD is also a bit crowded, this will end up badly for a lot of people.

Oanda EURUSD weekly

Other Notes
Safe Havens keep rising.

Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

Insiders keep selling while main street keeps buying.

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Nasdaq100 Vs VXN jaws look scary for longs.

NDX Vs VXN

JXY Vs VIX correlation, points VIX to go much higher

YEN Index/ VIX ratio VS SP500

Interesting Articles

Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– Flash PMIs
– USD Jobs data / FOMC
– OPEC Meetings

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