24 – 28 August 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.

From last week:
Had a great week, got a bunch of stuff done. More database and code migrations and added more free stuff to the blog. Check the “Data tables” section.

Trading wise, still long $AG and $LVO. $AG is a strong hands kind of situation.

Longed $GOLD (Oanda CFD) according to last week’s plan. Entry @ $1954.70 and got stopped @$1981.99, ~$25 per contract, not shabby but wasn´t the plan.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    New ATH, not too shabby. The divergence between the stock market and the real economy is widening and It´s scary.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Healthy correction got long, got stopped. Next week will reevaluate, I am hoping for better opportunities to buy lower.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
More earnings this week. A lot of SP500 companies are reporting a shrink on earnings and signaling for future guidance with caution.
The market keep on rallying despite all the chaos. Countries closing again for corona fears, California wildfires, Bielorrusia chaos, US elections shit show, etc..
The market seems detached from reality.

This week I will keep focusing on the to-do list. I have a few more things to finish on the code and I want to re-watch one of the best TV shows ever, Rome.

I will only keep an eye on gold and silver.

Earnings Whispers

More than two months of pure consolidation. This can totally go both ways, but the next movement is certainly an explosion. The doubt is If It´s up or down.

The spreads are back on track and the Brent – WTI is on the down-low again.
This is going to be interesting. I honestly don’t know where the next move is.
I highly recommend this blog for fundamental and macro research about crude.

Oanda CFD WTI daily
Market Gauge – WTI Dashboard

The correction came fast and furious, although I think this is not over.
I would like to see a new retest of $1800. Technically is not very probable but, other factors kick in.
Gold indicators are still stretched and need some relief. $GVZ is having a hard time passing $28, and every time $GVZ reaches $28, gold is retracing.
Any dip below $1800 is a buy for me.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
Market Gauge – Gold Dashboard

Well, what a bag of air. This thing keeps running on fumes. What an engine.
We just reached new ATH this week with a very low volume.
Technically we are still in trend, bull trend.
A lot of constituents are now on a bear trend, below 250DMA.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Market Gauge – SP500 Dashboard
US Total Volume Vs SPX Vs US Total ADV/DEC

This escalated quickly, I didn’t expect so much weakness on the dollar.
FX majors and commodities are having a blast.
Despite being on a downtrend channel the dollar seems to rip for a bump. This level is being defended pretty heavily. Let´s see how this plays out. A rise in the dollar would further weak gold and silver. This may be the catalyst for a deeper retrace.
DXY shorts keep on stacking, maybe It´s an already too crowded trade.

DXY daily
CoT Dashboard – DXY

This is not a hatting post on $TSLA, but for me $TSLA is the poster boy for the bubble we are living on the market.
Just check this tree charts:

$TSLA top drawdown periods
Underwater plot
$TSLA returns

The volatility on returns is insane. This company produces bad cars, It´s not profitable without some heavy financial engineering and Elon behaves like a looney toon.
Things will end up badly for $TSLA holders and I fear a lot of people are putting their hard earn money in smoke.
Everything on this market is overvalued, but $TSLA, boy oh boy. It´s the epitome of over evaluation.

Other Notes
C- suite keeps on selling.


Interesting Articles

MacroVoices #233 Jesse Felder: How Long Can Stock Market Mania Continue?

The End Game Ep. 6 – Lacy Hunt

Check the full calendar here:

Special notes on:
USD – Consumer Confidence / Richmond Man. Index / Jobs / Fed Powell speaks / Chicago PMI
CHF – Credit Swiss Economic Expectations / KOF Economic Barometer
EUR – German Ifo / German Gfk
CNY – CB Leading Index

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