31 AUG – 4 SEP 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Another great week on the get stuff done side.

Re-watched Rome, what a TV-show, how could HBO canceled it.

Found an awesome free feed with stocks short volume, I am trying to make some fun stuff with the data, you can expect some new stuff on the site soon.

Trade wise:
Long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Well, I still believe in this but … SP500 and Nasdaq100 are going full-on bananas.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Both silver and gold are trapped in a range, more below.
    Still long term insanely bullish on gold
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are rallying left and right, commodities are having a field day with DXY weakness.

Next Week:
More earnings, curious about ZOOM and Macys.
I will keep working on the stock’s short volume dataset. August is my to-do full steam go ahead month of the year. The month to do all the boring stuff and disconnect from trading as much as possible. Take a breather and discover/learn other skills.

This works great for me.
Trade wise. We are in a conundrum, stocks are very expensive, gold is very expensive, crude is doing nothing, the dollar is dying, Euro is too expensive, Yen is on vacations. It´s like we are stuck in a never-ending cycle fueled by the Fed and central banks.

I will keep watching mainly gold, really important how the pennant resolves, more below.

Earnings whispers

WTI
More of the same thing, still inside the same range.
Despite the hurricanes on the Mexican Golf treating refineries, the price remained stall.
On the other hand, RBOB ballooned, which makes me believe that the market is counting on a supply issue on refined and distilled products, a lack of demand for crude as refineries are closing.

Stocks have been in a drawdown for a few weeks without any impact on prices.

Things are in a range, It´s a clear no trade zone for me. I think the best move is going to be massive, up or down. I will wait and see.

Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The demand for gold is no joke and premiums are still very high.
I can’t say this enough, long term I am insanely bullish on gold.

Although, short term and technically we are very extended and we never retested the previous levels.
The setup gold is printing right now, is a bull pennant.
In theory, the pennant broke out already but I want to see follow-through. It´s still risky to long gold.
Last week the price action went full bananas up and down with massive swings which indicates indecision on the market, just read the last Thursday tape on the Fed inflation announcement. The market is divided and I want to play with the winning side, so I wait to see who scores first.
Keep an eye on $GVZ $w8 level, usually gold reject it.

Market Gauge – Gold dashboard


SP500
There’s really not much to say, This is just insane. We are at record PE levels and the last 7 candles are 7 straight green ones.

Market Gauge – SP500 dashboard

On the CoT report, longs reached the average line.

CoT dashboard sp500

Overall market volume keeps decreasing.

Market Gauge – Volume dashboard

DXY
This bad boy isn´t getting enough attention. This is the key to all the market riddles.
Technically DXY is very oversold and due to a rebound.

One thing to have in consideration is that DXY is 58% exposed to EUR (link), which is having a massive rally Everyone is long the EUR and It´s the new crowded bull trade. Some on the DXY weakness is due to this because Vs other Majors the dollar is actually doing ok.

Check this chart DXY Vs costume DXY ( If you are using trading view platform you can copy-paste this ticker)

50USDEUR^0.3384USDJPY^0.1861USDGBP^0.1346USDAUD^0.0765USDCAD^0.0613USDCNY^0.0575USDCHF^0.0487USDHKD^0.0468USDKRW^0.0267USDINR^0.0235

What happens next to the dollar will have big repercussions on the market, stocks, gold, and commodities are benefiting the massive down movement on DXY If the trend reverts we might see a correction after all.

DXY Vs costume DXY
DXY daily chart
CoT DXY dashboard

Other Notes
Sentiment

Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

Volatility, no one, absolutely no one is shorting volatility

Market Gauge – Vol dashboard

EU futures, only DAX is pumping, maybe because of tech?

Market Gauge – EU futures dashboard

Interesting Articles

I lost 10 grand in 10 minutes’: Sports stars become traders in lockdown: https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/within-10-minutes-i-lost-10-grand-sports-stars-become-traders-in-lockdown-20200825

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– CNY/USD/EUR/GBP Manufacturing nad Services PMIs
– USD Jobs/ ADP Jobs
– AUD GDP

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