7 – 11 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a way to close the week, Thursday and Friday were absolutely brutal!
SP500 went entered the elevator down and broke a very important trend.
Three new stocks were added to SP500 and 3 when out, shocker (Ironically) Tesla wasn’t added.

August is finally finished and so it is my “To-do list”. I won’t be 100% on the markets during September also because It is usually my vacation month. It´s fine for me to be in and out, I find it quite refreshing because when I am game, I am 120% focused. I need this time to unwind.

Still long $AG, $LVO.MI and Gold CFD

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Entered the elevator down, It could be it? I have my doubts.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed below trend.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains keep having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I don’t believe this is “It” for the market, people won’t let the market die this easy. As so, this week I will share some ideas of what can pump next before the “last dance”.

One thing to have in mind, the US Misery Index is still very, very high.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_misery_index

WTI
As I suspected, the movement was brutal and to the downside.
Inventories have been in withdrawal for weeks and the price was really numb, which shows a lack of interest in WTI.

Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

It´s really hard to trade crude at the moment, consumption isn´t on a normal level and the fear of a second lockdown still looms.
I believe a retest of the $40 level is more than possible early this week, but the path of least resistance is still down.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Another thing to have in consideration, during my correlation studies, I found out TYX (Treasury Yield 30 Years Yield) usually preludes the crude futures movements, and they are pointing down.

Crude Futures Vs TYX

Gold
Gold finally broke and closed below the up trendline.
Fundamentals for gold are better than good, but the technicals are very extended, and further consolidation is healthy for a future move up.
I will be buyer, hand over fist if we touch the yellow box.

Oanda CFD Gold daily

Another thing to have in mind is the correlation between the VIX and Gold, If you are with me betting on a VIX surge, usually when VIX surges, gold comes down, closing the correlation gap.

VIX Vs Gold


SP500
Last week ETSY, TER, and CTLT were added, and HRB, KSS and COTY were removed from SP500.
Early Monday you can expect a pump of the added stocks and a massive dump of the dropped ones.
The surprise to a lot of people was the Tesla as a no show on the added list, this might escalate the Tesla dump.

Technically SP500 closed below a major technical level and we will probably retest last Friday lows.
This is It? I don’t think so, there is still a lot of dumb money in the market and a lot of sectors to pump.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily

More than 40% of SP500 are below the bull/bear line which should be a huge indicator for anyone that trades based on trend.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Tankers
The correlation between Tankers and Baltic dry Index usually has a delay.
When BDI pumps, Tanker stocks blow off and when BDI dumps, stocks rise.
It´s weird in a way, but the higher the tanker stocks close their contracts for shipping, the bigger the profits are in the end.

https://stockcharts.com/acp/?s=%24BDI

The stocks I am watching for a pump are $STNG, $TNK, $EURN and $DSSI.
It will happen when it happens, I am using the SAR as a trigger to buy.

https://www.investing.com/

Cannabis
Yup, this green bad boy. I use a, let´s call it trick to analyze this space. I made a custom index of the most traded pot stocks. If you use trading view you can copy this:
NYSE:CGCNASDAQ:TLRYNASDAQ:SNDLNYSE:STZNYSE:HEXOOTC:EMHTFOTC:ACRGF*CSE:CURA
Technically this puppy is primed to pump. I believe we still have one last dance before the SP500 dies and pot will be one of the last girls to leave the dance.

NYSE:CGCNASDAQ:TLRYNASDAQ:SNDLNYSE:STZNYSE:HEXOOTC:EMHTFOTC:ACRGF*CSE:CURA

Other Notes
Safe havens:

Market Gauge Safe havens dashboard

Gap between NDX and VXN

NDX Vs VXN

BTC Vs Yen, usually Yen and BTC move inversely, let´s see what happens on the Monday open after the BTC dump.

BTC Vs YEN

Sentiment, go bears go!

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

DXY weakness across the chart.

Market Gauge FX dashboard

Interesting Articles

SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally
https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-richest-families-2020/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-slashes-stake-in-wells-fargo-51599255383

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
EUR GER industrial production / EUR Sentix investor sentiment / GDP / employment numbers and cash rates
JPY GDP
CAD Cash rates
USD Jobs numbers / PPI

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