14 – 18 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Another range-bound week of big ups and downs leading to nowhere.
I have been trading less and less, I don´t feel comfortable at all with this current market conditions. I will share an article from Jesse Felder where he talks particularly about this.

Still long $AG, $LVO.MI and Gold (CFD).
As I shared last week, due to negative correlations with WTI, Tankers were primed for a bump. Caught both $STNG and $TNK, both positions sold on Friday’s close.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    I don´t think the last drop was it, I think we still have one last push before the last dance.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    It´s holding, very correlated with DXY, watch both.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I will keep it short, It will be a crazy week. A lot of technical setups for major indexes and commodities may conclude /break this week.
I don´t plan on trading heavy, I will keep my approach of laying back and let the market do Its thing.
Still eying the cannabis industry, check last week´s post.
https://eod-notes.com/2020/09/06/7-11-september-2020-trading-week-preparation/

Also, vacations are coming so It´s time to detach, 100%.

WTI
It bumped as planed to ~$40 and kept going down.
I believe It still has plenty on the downside to go, but technically a more significant bounce is due.
It triggered a pivot reversal (purple triangle) and we may see $40 again.
For mind term, I think we will see $25 WTI again.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

Another thing to have into consideration, in the last few weeks, inventories have been negative and the price has gone nowhere. Last week, the inventories gained a bit and fueled a sell.

Spreads are also widening.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

Gold
Technically gold is super bullish, the bull flag pattern even seems to have triggered. This being said, I will watch the DXY before making a move on gold. DXY has been beaten to a pulp and It might come back to life with a revenge thirst.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
DXY daily

The spreads on gold futures #1-#12 and #1-#6 are also rising, the spread between #1-#12 is +$200 wide. This is insane and it will close, eventually.

Market Gauge futures curves dashboard
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


SP500
So, the mighty spuz.
This is a bull flag, technically this is super bullish.
I don’t think we are done with more upside and the spuz might retest ~3500 level.
Fundamentals are aligning again with super bearish strength. It´s a no-trade for me due to uncertainty.
A lot of SP500 constituents are red on the bull-bear lines (255 DMA), and the rally is being fueled by tech.
As tech is turning bearish, make your conclusions on how this house of cards will unfold.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Interesting Articles
Jesse Felder article mentioned above- https://thefelderreport.com/2020/09/09/master-the-art-of-doing-nothing/?mc_cid=2fc733fc7c&mc_eid=2fd1a72551

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– JPY Tertiary Industry Activity
– CNY Industrial production / Unemployment rate
– GBP Unemployment rate / Cash rates
– EUR ZEW
– USD Empire State Man. Index / Industrial production / Retail sales / FOMC / Jobs / Philly Fed Index

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