9 – 13 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Well, I couldn’t miss more plans than I did.
US elections are sort of done, Biden won and Trump is out.

Historically the market didn´t behave as “normal” and pulled a huge rally.

My LVO position got stoped with profit, I can´t distress this enough, manage your trades. I am planning to get back in, volatility is still cheap.

Failed to add on gold, couldn’t cat a bid for $1850.

$AG is going fine.

Added two new positions on $SWBI and $RGR, took last Thursday’s dump to add with size.

I will give more details on the specific sections below.

Next Week:
I am expecting a lot of drama due to the US elections and a shift of attention from the US election to Brexit and corona. This will probably trigger some kind of volatility, the trick is to know what.

More earnings:

Earnings Whispers

Special attention to:
– Rocket, business is booming
– Corsair, gaming on lockdown probably boosted the sales heavily
– Farfetch, a new deal with Alibaba
– Palantir, the most mysterious company in the world that keeps operating on a massive loss, despite having huge contracts.

I am expecting volatility across equities and FX. I am betting on a bumpy ride till the end of the year.

WTI
Had a failed break down the previous week and know It´s trading inside the channel again.
It needs to break the $40 mark to enter a new trend.
Fundamentally I think the narrative is still the same, lack of demand for such a huge supply.
Technically, It bounced perfectly on the 0.38 Fibonacci.

Oanda WTI CFD

The 90 days mean reversion is a little skewed but are behaving like support/resistance zones.

WTI Mean Reversion last 90 days
Market Gauge Crude Dashboard

Gold
Gold just broke out, again.
As shared last week, I was planning on adding to my gold position between $1850 – $1800. Unfortunately, I didn’t get my bid.
The uncertainty of US politics and the weakness of the dollar is boosting gold and this does not look very supportive for the long term, I would really like to see further consolidation.
Gold is trading between a channel, and the next few days will decide what will happen.

Bare in mind that last time the markets sold off, the dollar jumped and primed as the safe haven to be, this will have consequences to gold.

Oanda Gold CFD

I am also looking to the price of gold in YEN, Yen being one of the major safe havens currencies. Gold just broke out, which can support the bull narrative.

Gold 365 days mean reversion

On the bear side, the exposure to the dollar moves is a very important thing to have in consideration.
The $GVX (Gold volatility) proximity to It´s mean reversion of $24.

Market Gauge Gold Dashboard

And last but not least, Gold futures are trading at a negative premium. The current contract is substantially more expensive than the two references for #6 and #12. Which points to a red flag on the current price.

Market Gauge Futures Curve Gold


SP500
S&P500 is playing a dangerous game, It´s again at the top of the channel and It´s decision time.

Oanda SP500 CFD

I was expecting a lot of volatility last week, but market gods played me for a fool. And provided a huge rally based on uncertainty and chaos. We are really on a multi-billion dollar casino.

Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Be prepared for a possible buy the rumor and sell the news event.

GUNS
Last week based on the US elections chaos and indecision I decided to go long on two gun stocks. $SWBI and $RGR.
I got sort of lucky, I took advantage of the Thursdays sell-off and market bought my positions.
Technically they seem strong and fundamentally I think we will have a gun race in the US.

SWBI and RGR charts

Volatility
If you read my market preparation posts, you already noticed that volatility is always a core position for me. I do enjoy trading It and It provides sort of an edge to market down movements.

Last week, volatility imploded and I had to sell my bag.
I am planning to get back in again but when It´s the great incognito.
For the next week, I am looking at $GVZ, $VIX, and $EVZ. Gold, equities, and Euro volatility.

Market Gauge Volatility Dashboard

Other Notes
Equities to Commodities ratio, It broke down last week. Let´s see how this plays out. The setup on the ratio was pretty bullish, we had a bullish continuation pattern. Next week will let If this was a rejection or a fakeout.

SPX/ TRJEFFCRB

Sentiment turned bullish,again:

Market Gauge Sentiment

Insiders are selling massively:

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

Nordea FX weekly: Biden is not that reflationary, is he?
https://e-markets.nordea.com/article/61093

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR Sentix / ZEW
– USD Jobs / CPI / PPI / Powell Speaks
– JPY Economic watches sentiment / Core machinery orders

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