16 – 20 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.

From last week:
Crazy week.
The US drama election keeps ongoing, Trump still claims the win, and cracks on Biden´s ranks are cracking.
Behind this, markets are rallying and posing to make new highs.

I got duped on last week’s volatility trade and had to cut short the losses for a tiny profit.

Still long and strong $AG and Gold CFD since what feels like forever.

New positions on $RGR and $SWBI are not for cardiacs, they move insanely intraday. Still holding and above water.

Most of you know I live in Portugal since last week we entered another severe lockdown so I am trying to keep busy at home without burning myself out. I just discovered this site.


It´s a free repository for research papers for dozens of different areas. I just print them and seat on the sofa reading at my own pace.
Or just binge watch some TV-show, whatever is rocking my boat at the time.

Next Week:
More earnings, not just earnings but a lot of Chinese ADRs earnings.
China is posting a record recovery, let´s see how ADRs behave.
I personally don’t like to trade Chinese stocks, especially big names such as $BABA, $NIO, $JD, etc. They are too crazy and I can correlate the Tesla cult with the Chinese tech cult.

Earnings Whispers

More “noise” is coming to the markets this week, I am alert and trying to clear my mind in a way I can see past the fog. SP500 will probably do a new record high because of the rotation between Growth / Value.

Being patient is also trading, and not to trade due to uncertainty is also ok.
The urge to jump on the train is real, I have to persuade myself almost every day to stick to what I can understand and just play what I foresee.

WTI is still trading inside the “magic” channel.
Last week´s rejection of the $42 level and the following 3 red candles is pointing that market participants think WTI gone up too fast.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

Current price is diverging from the current futures curve, long term #6 and #12 contracts are trading at a positive premium.

Market Gauge WTI futures curve

My bias on WTI is still bearish, the demand isn´t there and we probably are heading to another massive lockdown worldwide.
We also have OPEC this week, some news may rock this market.

Gold seems very fragile, and somethings that´s throwing me off is that despite all this chaos, gold isn´t moving, a lot.
This probably indicates that people are ok living in chaos, and It´s not time to buy more gold, yet.
Technically It looks weak, and a revisit on the desired $1800 level seems very likable.

Oanda CFD Gold daily

Another thing to consider on the bear side, Gold #6 and #12 futures are trading at a negative spread related to the current contract, and $GVZ is below Its mean reversion.

Market Gauge Gold futures curve
Market Gauge Gold dashboard

Long term I am bullish on gold, I want to add to my paper and physical bags.
At $1850 – $1800, I will definitely start adding to my positions.

Well, There’s nothing much to say, we probably are going to see new highs.
The rotation between Growth/Value is adding new fuel to this rocket.
Technically the chart looks like trash, It´s a parabolic move with some pretty insane candles.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily

What I learned this year about stocks:
-forget the reason
-forget logic
-forget stock valuations.
Stocks only go up and buy every single dip.

I don´t do this, I don´t understand this, that´s why I am probably wrong about SP500 a lot of times this year.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

I am watching the dollar very closely.
When shit hits the fan, market participants will start driving into the dollar for safety.

I think I already shared this, but here goes again. On an intraday basis I watch this dashboard:

Risk monitor

As you can see, as the US 10 Year Yield goes up, and the dollar goes down, stocks go up, and vice versa.
So, watch closely this correlation, a weak US10Y yield, and a strong dollar, will probably be the trigger a lot of traders are looking at.

DXY daily

Other Notes
The market is in bull mode.

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders are keeping to date their insane selling spree:


Insane PE´s coming from USA:


Interesting Articles

Check the full calendar here:

Special notes on:
– CNY Industrial production / Retail Sales / Unemployment rate
– USD Empire State Man. Index / Retail sales / NAHB Index / ADP Jobs / Jobs
– EUR Lagard Speaks / CPI

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