16 – 20 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week.
The US drama election keeps ongoing, Trump still claims the win, and cracks on Biden´s ranks are cracking.
Behind this, markets are rallying and posing to make new highs.

I got duped on last week’s volatility trade and had to cut short the losses for a tiny profit.

Still long and strong $AG and Gold CFD since what feels like forever.

New positions on $RGR and $SWBI are not for cardiacs, they move insanely intraday. Still holding and above water.

Most of you know I live in Portugal since last week we entered another severe lockdown so I am trying to keep busy at home without burning myself out. I just discovered this site.

https://hq.ssrn.com/rankings/Ranking_display.cfm?TRN_gID=10

It´s a free repository for research papers for dozens of different areas. I just print them and seat on the sofa reading at my own pace.
Or just binge watch some TV-show, whatever is rocking my boat at the time.

Next Week:
More earnings, not just earnings but a lot of Chinese ADRs earnings.
China is posting a record recovery, let´s see how ADRs behave.
I personally don’t like to trade Chinese stocks, especially big names such as $BABA, $NIO, $JD, etc. They are too crazy and I can correlate the Tesla cult with the Chinese tech cult.

Earnings Whispers

More “noise” is coming to the markets this week, I am alert and trying to clear my mind in a way I can see past the fog. SP500 will probably do a new record high because of the rotation between Growth / Value.

Being patient is also trading, and not to trade due to uncertainty is also ok.
The urge to jump on the train is real, I have to persuade myself almost every day to stick to what I can understand and just play what I foresee.

WTI
WTI is still trading inside the “magic” channel.
Last week´s rejection of the $42 level and the following 3 red candles is pointing that market participants think WTI gone up too fast.

Oanda WTI CFD daily


Current price is diverging from the current futures curve, long term #6 and #12 contracts are trading at a positive premium.

Market Gauge WTI futures curve

My bias on WTI is still bearish, the demand isn´t there and we probably are heading to another massive lockdown worldwide.
We also have OPEC this week, some news may rock this market.

Gold
Gold seems very fragile, and somethings that´s throwing me off is that despite all this chaos, gold isn´t moving, a lot.
This probably indicates that people are ok living in chaos, and It´s not time to buy more gold, yet.
Technically It looks weak, and a revisit on the desired $1800 level seems very likable.

Oanda CFD Gold daily


Another thing to consider on the bear side, Gold #6 and #12 futures are trading at a negative spread related to the current contract, and $GVZ is below Its mean reversion.

Market Gauge Gold futures curve
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


Long term I am bullish on gold, I want to add to my paper and physical bags.
At $1850 – $1800, I will definitely start adding to my positions.


SP500
Well, There’s nothing much to say, we probably are going to see new highs.
The rotation between Growth/Value is adding new fuel to this rocket.
Technically the chart looks like trash, It´s a parabolic move with some pretty insane candles.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily


What I learned this year about stocks:
-forget the reason
-forget logic
-forget stock valuations.
Stocks only go up and buy every single dip.

I don´t do this, I don´t understand this, that´s why I am probably wrong about SP500 a lot of times this year.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Dollar
I am watching the dollar very closely.
When shit hits the fan, market participants will start driving into the dollar for safety.

I think I already shared this, but here goes again. On an intraday basis I watch this dashboard:

Risk monitor


As you can see, as the US 10 Year Yield goes up, and the dollar goes down, stocks go up, and vice versa.
So, watch closely this correlation, a weak US10Y yield, and a strong dollar, will probably be the trigger a lot of traders are looking at.

DXY daily


Other Notes
The market is in bull mode.

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders are keeping to date their insane selling spree:

http://www.openinsider.com/

Insane PE´s coming from USA:

https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– CNY Industrial production / Retail Sales / Unemployment rate
– USD Empire State Man. Index / Retail sales / NAHB Index / ADP Jobs / Jobs
– EUR Lagard Speaks / CPI
– GBP CPI / PPI

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