Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
From last week:
It´s that time of the year, a lot of research is coming out for 2021, been reading a lot on that, especially FX. Living and trading in Europe and using dollars to trade can have a lot of impact on my returns.
So, I am focusing on adapting my trade and finding new ways to be less dependant on dollars. By doing this I am also finding a lot of nice ETFs listed on EU based on EUR.
The positions are still the same, $AG, $RGR, $SWBI, and GOLD (CFD).
$AG and Gold are doing fine.
The guns trade is very speculative and didn´t pay off, yet, I hope. Both are trading near my entry point.
Last Friday we had OPEX and the market rolled off.
I don´t think this was a massive event, It was just a regular OPEX with a pinch of salt that a lot of options were bought/sold because of the US elections, traders wanted protection.
SP500 might drop a few points but will see a buy the dip event.
This week we also have the Flash PMIs results across the world.
I hope volatility comes back, I will probably go long VIX via $LVO.MI
All eyes on the dollar and commodities.
Stocks have been rising for two weeks in a row, and demand has been decreasing.
OPEC outcome was sort of “meh”, I guess the market was expecting heavy cuts.
Technically we are reaching a heavy sell zone. I believe WTI has no business being at this level, but It´s hard to argue with the market.
I haven´t trade WTI for a long, long time and maybe now It´s the time to come back and start dipping my toes on a short, Let´s see how it reacts to the resistance.
I really want to see Gold going to $1850 – $1800 but I don´t think I will see it.
Maybe if stocks roll over a bit, gold breaks but every dip is being bought hard.
I won´t build a new position on Gold (CFD) at his level for now, but maybe I will buy the gold miners ETF. By buying miners, I sort of guarantee my participation in a new gold rally.
Reasons to be alert on gold bullishness:
– $GVZ (Gold volatility) dropped hard, which may raise a few flags.
– We are far, far away from mean reversion levels.
– The dollar took a beating and maybe is due for a bounce, pushing gold to head lower.
– Gold futures contracts, the front month is trading at a premium relative to long-term ones.
There´s not much to say, technically It looks is due to a pullback.
Long-term chart outlook, maybe forming an inverted head and shoulders.
Overall It looks bullish.
Bears are showing no love for the dollar and the Fed ain´t helping.
A lot of market outlooks for 2021 are pointing to as much as a 20% drop on the dollar, which is pretty scary for non-US traders.
COT report shows, asset managers are staking shorts:
Despite all of this bearishness, nothing goes down on a straight line, and the dollar looks due for a big bounce.
I am keeping an eye on this, I want to buy dips on commodities, especially commodity swaps ETF such as $EXXY.
Another thing to keep an eye on is DXY/SP500 ratio, looks primed for a dollar bounce.
The sentiment is massively bullish.
Insiders keep on selling.
Tanker rates are going down.
NYSEFANG looking for a retest on the breakdown.
Check the full calendar here:
Special notes on:
– World Flash PMIs
– USD CB Consumer confidence / Richmond Man. Index / Durable goods
– JPY Tokyo CPI
– EUR GER GDP / Ifo Climate / GFK Consumer climate