23 – 27 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
It´s that time of the year, a lot of research is coming out for 2021, been reading a lot on that, especially FX. Living and trading in Europe and using dollars to trade can have a lot of impact on my returns.

So, I am focusing on adapting my trade and finding new ways to be less dependant on dollars. By doing this I am also finding a lot of nice ETFs listed on EU based on EUR.

The positions are still the same, $AG, $RGR, $SWBI, and GOLD (CFD).
$AG and Gold are doing fine.
The guns trade is very speculative and didn´t pay off, yet, I hope. Both are trading near my entry point.

Next Week:
Last Friday we had OPEX and the market rolled off.
I don´t think this was a massive event, It was just a regular OPEX with a pinch of salt that a lot of options were bought/sold because of the US elections, traders wanted protection.
SP500 might drop a few points but will see a buy the dip event.

This week we also have the Flash PMIs results across the world.

I hope volatility comes back, I will probably go long VIX via $LVO.MI

All eyes on the dollar and commodities.

WTI
Stocks have been rising for two weeks in a row, and demand has been decreasing.
OPEC outcome was sort of “meh”, I guess the market was expecting heavy cuts.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

Technically we are reaching a heavy sell zone. I believe WTI has no business being at this level, but It´s hard to argue with the market.
I haven´t trade WTI for a long, long time and maybe now It´s the time to come back and start dipping my toes on a short, Let´s see how it reacts to the resistance.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Gold
I really want to see Gold going to $1850 – $1800 but I don´t think I will see it.
Maybe if stocks roll over a bit, gold breaks but every dip is being bought hard.
I won´t build a new position on Gold (CFD) at his level for now, but maybe I will buy the gold miners ETF. By buying miners, I sort of guarantee my participation in a new gold rally.

Market Gauge Gold dashboard

Reasons to be alert on gold bullishness:
– $GVZ (Gold volatility) dropped hard, which may raise a few flags.
– We are far, far away from mean reversion levels.
– The dollar took a beating and maybe is due for a bounce, pushing gold to head lower.
– Gold futures contracts, the front month is trading at a premium relative to long-term ones.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily
Market Gauge Gold futures

SP500
There´s not much to say, technically It looks is due to a pullback.
Long-term chart outlook, maybe forming an inverted head and shoulders.
Overall It looks bullish.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Dollar
Bears are showing no love for the dollar and the Fed ain´t helping.
A lot of market outlooks for 2021 are pointing to as much as a 20% drop on the dollar, which is pretty scary for non-US traders.

COT report shows, asset managers are staking shorts:

COT DXY dashboard

Despite all of this bearishness, nothing goes down on a straight line, and the dollar looks due for a big bounce.

DXY daily

I am keeping an eye on this, I want to buy dips on commodities, especially commodity swaps ETF such as $EXXY.
Another thing to keep an eye on is DXY/SP500 ratio, looks primed for a dollar bounce.

DXY / ES1! daily

Other Notes

The sentiment is massively bullish.

Market Gauge Sentiment

Insiders keep on selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/

Tanker rates are going down.

https://fearnpulse.com/

NYSEFANG looking for a retest on the breakdown.

NYSE FANG index

Interesting Articles

https://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/Q3-CVALUE-Review_FINAL.pdf?mc_cid=b2fb850a05&mc_eid=2fd1a72551

https://think.ing.com/reports/2021-fx-outlook-back-on-track-report/

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World Flash PMIs
– USD CB Consumer confidence / Richmond Man. Index / Durable goods
– JPY Tokyo CPI
– EUR GER GDP / Ifo Climate / GFK Consumer climate

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