30 November – 4 December 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Bulls still dominate the market, everything is up, stocks, bonds, hedges …
It´s a full-on bananas market.

I added to my GOLD at $1812.
Created a new position on GDXJ (GDXJ.MI).
Still long $AG, $RGR, and $SWBI.

The new gold related positions are a bit dicey, but they are the first positions on a bigger fill order.

Next Week:
A lot of economic data will be released, PMIs, jobs, US ADP, etc.
It will be a crazy week, be prepared for more vaccine news.

Trade wise, I will monitor my new positions and watch if Tech keeps rolling over.

WTI
Technically, WTI seems extended. The near term target should be a retest of the $40 level.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

On the fundamentals, inventories kept on building and the spread between Brent and WTI went negative. Usually this indicates a disturbance in the market.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

On the futures, the spread between the front month, and #6 / #12 almost reached parity (0) which indicates an acceptance of the current price.

Market Gauge WTI futures
Crude futures correlation with US30Y yield

Overall, I maintain my bearish view on WTI. The price correlation with supply/ demand is just ridiculous. I wont fight the bull, but I am watching for when It caves. I expect WTI to revisit the $30 level.

Gold
Starting with last week´s analysis.
I wasn´t expecting gold to retest the $1800 area, so I decided to go against the plan and start adding to my long term position.
It´s the first new position on a series of additions, I will buy more for each $50 drop, or on a clean break above $1850.
Technically, the chart looks “ok-ish”, the trendline hold, and the buyers appeared to defend it.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily

Gold is still trading far from the mean reversion lines, and Gold Volatility ($GVZ) is a bit suppressed.
The futures spreads are consolidating, but are still a bag of mixed feelings and indecision.
The current level also offers some support.

Market Gauge Gold dashboard
Market Gauge Gold futures
Gold trading ranges for the last 365 days of trading
Gold last 365 trading days mean reversion

Overall, I am bullish on Gold long term.
I think every dip must be bought.


SP500
It feels like we keep stretching the elastic, and one day it will break and hit us in the face.
Technically, looks like it is forming some sort of megaphone.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

This formation supports a near term bearish view.
Taking this and plotting DXY/SP500 chart, we can see the dollar is also trying to gain some momentum.

DXY / ES1!

A few considerations about S&P500, overall this looks super bullish. Nothing changed momentum wise. Constituents are still trading above 250 DMA.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

GEX is relatively high, It is acting as a brake.

Data from https://squeezemetrics.com

It never revisited It´s YTD mean reversion of 3310, and the current Point Of Control is 3330.

SP500 last 365 trading days mean reversions

PE´s are insanely high.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

The correlation between S&P500 Futures volume and VIX, usually proxies the next S&P500 movement, it looks to be down.

S&P500 futures volume Vs VIX settle

Other Notes
The bull mode is still on.

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders keep on selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/

One important correlation on copper is the correlation with the Australian dollar. They usually move intertwined.
Copper had a huge rally, one of them need to catch up with the other.

AUD Futures Vs Copper futures

Interesting Articles

SSRN paper “Gamma Fragility”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3725454

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World PMIs
– USD Factory Orders / Jobs / ADP / Chicago PMI/ Powell
– CHF Economic barometer
– JPY Unemployment rate / Consumer confidence
– EUR Lagarde / Unemployment rate / German factory orders
– CNY Caixin data

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