11 – 15 January 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From the last YEAR:
A lot had happened last year, covid, Brexit, Hong Kong – China situation, negative oil prices, Trump going full bananas, pick your poison.

For me, It was a profitable trading year, but who doesn’t make money on bull markets?!

As a new year starts, before diving in and share what I am holding, I would like to share my final thoughts and considerations, what I have learned.

– Patience, as a trader or investor we are always eager to see that green P&L, sometimes things don’t happen on our timeframe, but they do happen. Wait for the trade to come to you and don’t rush. There are more tides than sailors.

– People are just dumb, everyone and their mother are traders now. If you recently joined the markets, You might be thinking this is easy. It is not. Trading is the hardest way to make easy money. When things return to normalcy, and they will. Be prepared for a chock in returns.

– Comum sense, one of the most underrated things in the world.
I understand the appeal of stocks such as TSLA, the returns have been massive and I understand why people hold/trade them.
What I don’t understand is the cult behind Elon Musk. History proved times and times that this kind of cult, such as Enron, Theranos, Madoff, etc is very dangerous.

– Don´t be greedy, profits are profits. Only a few people in the world traded their way to be millionaires. Set your goals and use the market as a shortcut to achieve them.

Update from December positions:
– The positions on gun stocks $SWBI and $RGR paid big money. +45% on $SWBI and +20% on $RGR. PATIENCE! after waiting 1 month for them to move, they completed the movement in two days.

– Holding $AG, $GDXJ.MI and bought $GOLD(Barrick Gold), $AG is still green, but $GOLD is a bit underwater. Still long GOLD CFD too.

I don´t like to have a lot of positions or trade heavily, I like to build sizable positions on specific bets. Let´s see how they carry to 2021.

Next Week:
Earnings bonanza again.

Earnings Whispers

I will only be watching banks, want to see how they fared during this last quarter.

WTI
My bias on WTI is still the same, lack of demand should drive prices lower.
As the price is proving me wrong over and over, I am staying out of it.
Things to have in consideration:
Approaching hard resistance of $54

Oanda WTI CFD

Current month contracts are still trading at a premium for #6 and #12. That’s why I am still holding to my lack of demand bias.

Market Gauge WTI futures curve

Inventories keep somehow drawing down, production cuts are helping.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard
WTI mean reversions

Gold
Last week was brutal, the all metals comp got destroyed.
I am still holding and building positions in the sector. Especially miners.
Now, about Gold:
I know the chart looks confusing so let’s break it down.
– Gold is bouncing on the 200DMA pink line
– And it’s forming what looks like an inverted head and shoulders.
This is supporting a possible support zone and bullish case.

Oanda Gold CFD

This zone can act as a support. The volume is there.

Gold trading zones
Gold mean reversions

Finally the premium closed on the #6 and #12 futures contract.

market gauge GOLD futures curves
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


SP500
Just pure insanity, despite all the bad stuff happening, the market, is still roaring. No point fighting it.

Oanda SP500 CFD

A few more charts:

SP500 mean reversions
SP500 trading zones
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

What I am looking for in early 2021

Shipping:
Yup, tankers again. When things return to possible normalcy, tankers will be needed to transport all that crude to power up factories and the return to normal.

Cargo ships, emerging markets like China, are returning to normality and the demand for coal is roaring.

Stocks: $SHIP, $TNK, $STNG, $EURN

Tech:
Not traditional tech but tech that provides experiences. Specially VR and AR.

Stocks: $WISA, $AYX, $DT, $ON, $LITE, $VUZI, $IMMR, $NEXCF

Commodities + Agriculture + Food and Water:
As the dollar insists on dying, there’s no better play than commodities.

Stocks: $EXXY.DE, $AVO, $VIE, $TSN, $BAYN.DE

Volatility:
If you follow the blog for some time, you know I love volatility and my go-to bad boy is $LVO.MI.

Bitcoin and Etherum:
If you don’t have 5% of your portfolio in BTC and ETH you are missing out big time. Use major sell-off to buy more. Cryptos are here to stay, expect all the weird shitcoins.

FX:
EURCAD – Very beautiful cup and handle on the weekly chart.

Oanda EURCAD

EURGBP – Take advantage of the perpetual range. Trade it wisely.

Oanda EURGBP

Emerging markets:
With USD being attacked by the big bear, EMs are rising and shining.
Stocks: $IEMB.MI, $EIMI.MI (European ETFs)

Other Notes
Sentiment is super bullish

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders keep selling their bags on every rally.

Open insider

Interesting Articles
The most exciting news for European investors, vanguard brought their Life Strategy ETFs across the ocean. Quoted in EUR and Accumulation.
The ETFs are already available on interactive brokers.

https://global.vanguard.com/portal/site/kiids/pt/pt/documents

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR Lagardspeaks / Industrial production
– USD Jolts Jobs / CPI / Unemployment claims / Empire state manufacturing index / Industrial production
– JPY Economic Watchers Sentiment / Core machinery orders

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