18 -22 January 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
The third week in for 2021 and another crazy week in the world.
In a new round of lockdowns, Trump will be impeached, stocks keep on pumping, Biden announced a new $2T stimulus bill, USD keeps on getting crushed, Gold had a meltdown and I made zero trades.

On a more personal note:
I was talking with a friend that trades/invest too, and we were comparing our 2020 returns.

He likes all the bright and shiny stock memes, $AMD, $TSLA, all the space and pot stocks you can throw at him.

I am a little bit more conservative, I like solid companies, and sectors. I rarely pick specific stocks to go all in and all my YOLOs are in $BTC and $ETH.
Most of my long term holdings are ETFs and the portfolio spare cash is on TIPS.

To be fair, he outperformed me by ~11% but putting things in perspective, he is always stressed with the market and despairs with 2% moves.
I am pretty comfortable leaving 11% on the table to have a good night’s sleep.

Why all of this? To explain that we should always use the market to help us with our objectives. We cannot be slaves of the market.

Position wise: Zero trades were made, all positions remain the same.
I am getting dunked on Gold, need to evaluate. More below.

Next Week:
More earnings:

Earnings whispers

Eyeing at $BAC, $GS, $NFLX and $INTC

Later next week, we will have a lot of Flash PMIs, be aware that bad numbers may influence the FX market/futures.
We are also seeing a lot of new lockdowns and unemployment rates rising.

The edge between the stock market and the real economy is widening.

WTI
Last week, I talked about this possible double top setup. It´s not yet a big confirmed rejection but…

Oanda WTI CFD

My bias is still bearish, despite the market keep proving me wrong.
As my bias cannot be changed by the market arguments, and I don’t want to lose money, I am not trading WTI.

The recent data is actually pretty bullish, we have OPEC cuts, inventories keep drawing down, and the dollar dying is helping the price to stay up.

market gauge crude

One thing to keep and eye is the SPX/CRB ratio(stocks to commodities).
If this weekly setup plays out, this can drive crude prices higher.

SPX/CRB

The futures spreads are saying the current price is ahead of the future, which for me clearly says, low demand.

market gauge WTI futures

Gold
Bloody week, I am currently ok with the state of my positions, the only one I am cautious about is the recent dd @$1815. I will see how the market opens.
Gold can certainly dip below $1800, for me, It´s only an opportunity to buy more.
Call me crazy and I can totally be wrong, but the dollar debasement is here to stay, and I am ready to play the long game.

Oanda Gold CFD

This is a very ugly chart, on the bright side, we are still above the 255DMA (Purple line).
Things sustaining the gold bulls:
– Dollar debasement
– Real rates (US Yields – US inflation) are all negative.
– Despite all the blood, the bull sentiment persists and the flows support this.

market gauge Gold

GLD and GDX are flirting with their 365 trading days mean reversion.


SP500
There’s not much I can say about this apart from how ridiculous this chart looks like.

Oanda SP500 CFD

I am keeping an eye on the moving averages global as a sign of weakness on the index. These week, we had a substancial increase on the constituents below their 30DMA.

market gauge SPX

Volatility
Finally looks like we are going to start to have some fun.
Vol is looking nice to start a position here.
Why:
CTAs SKEW short equity trigger triggered twice.

market gauge volatility

VIX futures are finally trading at a positive spread.

market gauge vix futures

SP500 seasonality helps supporting a short term bearish view.

equityclock.com

I will start looking into creating a position on $LVO.MI

Other Notes
Insiders selling palooza.

http://www.openinsider.com/

SP500 price to earnings at highs:

https://www.longtermtrends.net/

Interesting Articles

MacroVoices #254 Luke Gromen: The FED Faces No Easy Choices

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World Flash PMIs
– USD Monday is MLK day / Philly Fed Man. Index / Unemployment claims
– CNY – GDP /Industrial production / Retail sales / Unemployment rate
– EUR – ZEW / CPI / Cash rates
– AUD – Job numbers
– CAD – Cash rates

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *