25 – 29 January Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
JB took the seat as the US president and markets reached new ATH.
There’s not much to say, as earnings made stocks soar and everyone and their mother are making money in stocks.

Position wise:
– As I shared on Twitter, I closed my long GOLD CFD.
– I am still holding $AG, $GOLD, $GDXJ.MI
– Add a new SUPER speculative position on BTCDOWNUSDT, It’s a Binance leveraged token.
– Added a new position as a YOLO. I recently joined a Portuguese discord server for investments, I am a big advocate of financial literacy and this server is focused on that. One of the admins “Ações dividendos” is making a lot of research on spacs and referred me to $RPLA, which I bought warrants $RPLA.W.
If you are interested in joining the community, here is the link to the discord server, https://discord.gg/BkRRBWdJG2


Apart from the assets I trade actively, I also did my monthly addition to my long term (retirement) portfolio. It´s a simples 80-20 portfolio (80 stocks – 20 bonds) with 4 assets.

$CSPXiShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc) 60%
$EIMIiShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF USD (Acc) 20%
$IEMBiShares J.P. Morgan $ EM Bond UCITS ETF USD (Dist) 10%
$AGGHiShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) 10%

All dividends are also reinvested.
Despite market conditions you should always have a long-term plan, overtime markets will go up. Just do your monthly additions to your retirement portfolio, and use trading to generate extra alpha.

Next Week:
More earnings, will keep an eye on: $MSFT, $AMD, $AAPL, $TSLA, $BA, $T, $VZ and $TEAM

Earnings whispers

Actively looking for next week:
– Gold futures / CFDs
– Looking into adding to my miners positions and possibly add $PAAS
– Calls for $MSFT earnings If they are nicely priced.
– Let’s see if I finally manage to find a good buy on $LVO.MI

WTI
Last week, I shared the double top setup currently happening on $WTI.
The setup seems to be happening but very slowly.
I believe that commodities are being hugely impacted by the dollar. This dollar weakness is giving $WTI a lot of resistance to go down.

Oanda WTI CFD

Fundamentally, inventories built a lot this week and the demand is stalled.
I have been sharing since covid stopped the world that I am bearish on crude.
If the price keeps going against my bias, I kept being proved wrong and I shouldn´t trade it. I will wait until I have a clear view.

market gauge crude

Another thing to have in consideration is this news:

If this is in fact true, this can be a huge catalyst for crude prices, probably to go up.


Gold
Gold is at a standstill like a good old western.

Oanda Gold CFD

The pink trend line is acting as a huge barrier to the upside.
The orange box is my entry zone if this channel breaks up.
A lot of this is also related to the recent strength of the dollar.

market gauge gold


SP500
I won’t make again the arguments that this puppy is far ahead of the real economy. I will focus on pure technicals.
SP500 is trading inside a huge channel that puts 4200 in play. This is a huge gap up.

Oanda CFD SP500
market gauge sp500

Dollar
One of the most used proxies to watch dollar movements is the $DXY.
This pink trend line to de downside is huge and the dollar is bearish until it breaks it.

DXY

Last week and despite all the stimulus talks in the US, the dollar held strong and didn’t dump a bit. The shorts keep on stacking according to the CoT, but the tape doesn’t reflect it. We can see a big short squeeze before further downside. This will drag down assets such as commodities and stocks, especially Gold.

Dollar CoT

Other Notes

Safe Havens:

market gauge safe havens

US Real Yields:

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR German Ifo / GFK climate
– USD CB consumer confidence / Richmond Man. Index / FOMC / Cash rates / Chicago PMI / GDP
– JPY CPI / Unemployment rate

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