1 – 5 February 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a long week, the madness with meme stocks and bitcoin twits drove me a little insane.

As a resolution for 2021, I decided to port my journal to analog, I have a notebook where I write all my stuff.
I forced myself to add a few more fields and not being a journal entirely about trade. I started tracking:
Sleep: I have to sleep at least 8h with 1:30h of deep sleep
Food: Eat healthily
Workout: At least 3 times a week (failing miserably)
Stress: Average daily 50 stress (1-200)
BPM: Average beats per minute

I am going out on a limb that this will help me taking care of myself and my mental state.

Why I am sharing this? Last week my stress levels were off the charts, I felt sick and super tired all the time. Check the week log.

It reached 128. This is not healthy at all. If you are experiencing something similar try to find a way to fix it. I am open to suggestions on how to handle it too.

Trading wise:
New active trades.
– CSPX.AS average ~312€
– $DIS Disney average ~$166.88
– $EXXY.MI average ~16.80€
– SP500 CFD bought @3754.7 and closed for +10 points per contract
– Binance BTCDOWN @0.2833 +~25% | @0.1944 +~15%
– Binance BNBUP @28 +~24%
I also tried a few trades on XRPDOWN and BTCUP this weekend that failed.
The tokens weren’t moving, ended up losing a few bucks.

Last week I shared a link for a Portuguese discord where I am hanging out. I have been calling all trades and ideas there as a new sharing is caring mindset.

Next Week:
It will be a tough week, we will have more meme stocks rallies, brokers shenanigans, more earnings, probably news about US stimulus, and more drama with covid19 vaccines.

I will be extremely cautious this week due to the broker’s drama, I want to watch Sundays open and Monday’s US open before committing to something.

The meme stocks, I don´t touch them, my trading rules don’t allow me to trade them and I personally don´t want to trade them, the amount of stress would mess me up.

Earnings, looking at $PFE, $BABA, $SPOT, $PYPL. Expecting beats on earnings and $BABA will be probably my focus play.

Earnings whispers

WTI
$WTI keeps on trading below the pressure zone in a consolidation pattern.
The last time $WTI did that, It ranged for 140 days!!!
I would thread with care on $WTI, despite the inventories drawing down, nothing much changed fundamentally wise.
I will keep being on the sidelines.

Oanda CFD WTI
market gauge crude

Gold
Last Friday we had a spark of hope on the breakout, but It didn´t hold.
WSB is trying to pump silver and gold can shine as a proxy, but I won’t keep my hopes up.
Gold has a place in this environment, and the idea here is to keep on adding to miners and gold despite the current “mood”.
The dollar is also showing some strength and If the market corrects a little lower, the $DXY can go to 90-94 which will bring $Gold down.

Last Friday’s close printed a nasty candle and a rejection of a trendline.
The green zone on the chart is clearly in play, keep also an eye on $1800 which is the 250DMA.

Oanda CFD Gold

$GVZ, $GLD and $GDX are both on “ok” levels which we might read as stability on the gold market.

market gauge gold


SP500
I might partake in the theory that this sell-off had as origin the need to sell winners to buy meme stocks or cover margins.
Fundamentals keep being super bullish, and Jerome Powell’s speech keeps supporting the markets.

We are at 50DMA and the support is holding.

Oanda CFD SP500

The ~53% constituents being below 50DMA supports the theory of selling winners.

market gauge sp500

What I am looking this week:
$MOS (Mosaic) reports earnings on 17/02/2021 and DAP prices are through the roof. It might present a really nice opportunity.

DAP Futures

I would like a buy between the green box, lets see if it possible.

Mosaic stock

$AAPL (Apple) depending on how the US market open, this can be a great opportunity to buy apple. I will wait, I would like to buy at $110, but I doubt It will happen. Probably We will se a bounce here.

Apple stock

$SAP (SAP software stock) I am a programmer and in the IT space, everyone knows SAP. It´s one of the major software in big companies.
I think this fear is all misplaced and this is an opportunity to buy. The green box would be the dream buy zone, spot price isn’t that bad either.

SAP stock

$BABA (Alibaba) I have a ton of mix feeling about Chinese ADRs but, $BABA does look nice here for earnings on 30/02/2021.

BABA stock

$BAYN.DE (Bayer) Let’s be honest, Bayer isn´t going anywhere despite the rough patch they have been through. The Monsanto lawsuit was settled for $11b, I think all this news are priced in and the company is set to shine.
It can be a bumpy ride but I think the returns here can be substantial.

Bayer stock

Other Notes
Record volumes on tape last Wednesday

market gauge market tape

Bearish sentiment perking up

market gauge sentiment

Tanker rates are dumping

https://fearnpulse.com/

Interesting Articles

https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-point72-to-invest-2-75-billion-into-melvin-capital-management-11611604340

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/oil-supermajors-to-show-worst-is-over-with-commodities-rally?srnd=premium-europe

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World PMIs
– USD Factory Orders / Jobs data / ADP
– GBP Cash rates
– AUD Cash rates

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