22 – 26 February 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Last week was the culmination of an idea I have been trying to implement for a while.

I used to trade daily / weekly for scalps and small swings.
This took me a lot of time, I usually spent all my days looking into dozens of charts and I had almost no free time.

I want to have more time to read and learn new stuff, I want to research new markets and to be able to provide better content and insights.
I also want to pursue other ventures and generate other streams of income.

What this actually means, I will keep trading stocks, but with different time horizons
Not weeks, but months/years. I will dollar cost average more and try to be an investor instead of a trader.

I will trade some stuff here and there, but I am trying to shift all my active portfolio positions for a bigger time frame.

This rushed decision, to switch instantly instead of phasing it out was made because this week I failed a lot of plays I had lined up.
Things such as $NVG, $MOS, $FTTUSDT, $AAEVEUSDT by pure distraction or being focused on the wrong thing.

What does this mean for the weekly preparation post?
I hope this means better content. I will still provide my insights and try to mix it up with new stuff I learned, and possible new streams of income I am pursuing.

Current trades:
– $BABA, Still on.
– $AAPL, Still on. Added more shares @128.80.
– $EXXY.MI, Still on.
– $RPLA.W, Still on. The meeting for this SPAC is set for 25/03/2021
– $CSPX.AS, Still on.
– $DIS,Still on.
– $SXLK, Still on.
– $GDXJ.MI, Still on.
– $GOLD (Barrick Gold), Still on. I am diamond hands on this and GDXJ. Barrick is finally debt-free, “zero” debt, and $3B of FCF. Barrick also is one of the major copper and gold miners out there.
– $LVO.MI, Still on. I will talk more about VIX below.
– $PLTR, Started a position around $29.14
– $BNBUSDT, Bought @130.51 USDT. Sold all my BNB @313
– $XTZEUR, Bought @3.88 – Sold @4.026. The setup turned and had a huge rejection on resistance.
– $UMAEUR, Bought @ 21.845 – Sold @21.957. Failed to break above resistance and 50DMA on 4h chart.
– $XLMEUR, Sold all my positions @0.4141

Next Week:
Markets are just insane.
The Fed with JPow and Janet on the US Treasury will keep supporting the movement up.

At this point, I think we look very toppy. I will talk more about SP500 below.
We have a craze across meme stocks, crypto, and speculative assets such as pokemon or MTG cards. Even my wine collection base prices went through the roof.

I would like to see consolidation across all markets. We need to breathe and shake off a few paper hands in order to build a base for the next leg up.

Earnings

I am not playing any earnings, but I will curiously be watching:
– Redfin due to possible $RPLA SPAC correlation
– ESTY
– Nikola
– Draft Kings
– Square due to BTC correlation

WTI
What’s a small 5% drop after this WTI run, nothing.
The inventories have been massively drawing down and the Texas power shortage is helping to sustain these prices.
Some refineries even closed down.
I am not trading WTI, although If a retest of the previous consolidation zone (Orange box) is made, I will think about going long.

Oanda WTI CFD
market gauge crude

One thing to have in consideration, WTI spreads are still very high.

market gauge WTI spreads

Gold
It´s no news that I like gold, and I have to admit that this dump got me a little scared about the gold future.
Last week I pointed $1760 was a line in the sand to make it or break it and gold managed to hold it.

The rising Yields, the uncertainty, and the market mood where risk assets are the best assets are drawing a lot of money of gold. The silvering is that this mood can´t last forever and as we got dumped, we shall rise.

Oanda Gold CFD
market gauge gold

SP500
I can rant about how toppy this is, but I won’t, for my own sanity.
The sentiment is very accommodative, and the market will keep going up.
This being said, the chart is toppy and a small consolidation would help the markets to move forward faster and on solid ground.

Oanda SP500 CFD

A drop to 3850 would be a nice place to start placing a few bids.

One thing to bear in mind, we are starting the tax season and people might sell a few gainers to cover some losers.

market gauge sp500

PLTR
Why I bought Palantir?
Palantir is poised to be the big player in data. The huge contracts with governments and public companies are making Palantir the go-to company for data insights.

On the earnings, Palantir presented +50% growth YoY for clients and revenue.

Palantir daily

I know this may sound crazy, I do think Palantir can be within 3 digits in a few years.

VIX
The VIX is like the silent killer waiting to jump in.
The CoT shows an increment of VIX long positions across the board.
The last VIX peaks, also happened when SP500 was moving up and sideways for a few weeks, which is what is happening right now.

VIX

I am not saying the market will dump hard, I am saying that the signals are here for a spike on the VIX. This can correlate with the market correction I am looking forward.

Bitcoin
Last week I have been reducing all my altcoin exposure, I mainly hold ETH, BTC, and LTC.
Bitcoin is stretched and I want to be in a position to instantly liquidate everything.
This last bitcoin push pumped alts to insane profits.
It´s never wrong to pull profits, even If you miss on some.

RSI > 80 and the MACD seems to be forming a bear MACD signal.
I would like a retest of the green box which coincides with de 50DMA.

The 50DMA is very important in this trend because almost all coins that are rallying are bouncing on the 50DMA.

I know this is a steep decline, but I think if we move down, the movement will have a massive acceleration.

BTCUSD

Other Notes

GEX is almost negative. When GEX is low, it acts as an accelerator to market movements.

squeezemetrics.com

DSI is at highs.

http://www.sentimentreport.com/

Insiders keep on selling hard.

http://www.openinsider.com/

The US10Y is flirting with mean reversions.

US 10Y Yield
US 10Y Note

One of the things I want to have more time is to research projects and ideas.
This week I will look into, Certified Diamond Coin.
They want to tokenize de diamond markets. I will let you know my final thoughts.
https://cdiamondcoin.com/

Interesting Articles

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-sues-international-brokers-alleging-naked-short-selling-and-spoofing-now-defunct

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-endgame-we-are-entering-hyper-speculation-phase

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR German Ifo / GFK Consumer Climate / German GDP / Durable goods
– USD Fed JPow testifies / CB Consumer Index / Richmond Man. Index / Jobs data / Chicago PMI
– JPY Toky CPI / Retail Sales
– GBP Unemployment rate

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