1 – 5 March 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a bloody week, everything dumped.
Crypto, stocks, commodities,… the only thing up was bond yields.

Bond yields are on the mouth of every market participant and everyone is now a bond expert.

People talking about maturity, convexity, bonds vs stocks correlations. This never ceases to amaze me how trendy things can be.

The most important thing from last week:

Coinbase also filled for a direct listing, the market is valuing Coinbase at $450 a share. The prospectus looks nice, I hope we have more intel soon.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm

About the Diamon coin project, I referred to last week.
For me It´s a bag of empty air, If they can deliver on the things they promise, It might be tempting, for now, It’s just on the watchlist.

Current trades:
– $BABA, Still on.
– $AAPL, Still on. Added more shares @128.80.
– $EXXY.MI, Still on.
– $RPLA.W, Still on. Reporting earnings on 02/03/2021. The meeting for this SPAC is set for 25/03/2021
– $CSPX.AS, Still on.
– $DIS,Still on.
– $SXLK, Still on.
– $GDXJ.MI, Still on.
– $GOLD (Barrick Gold), Still on. I am diamond hands on this and GDXJ. Barrick is finally debt-free, “zero” debt, and $3B of FCF. Barrick also is one of the major copper and gold miners out there.
– $LVO.MI sold all @4.95
– $PLTR, started a position around $29.14
– $AWK, started a position around $146. A major player in the water industry, the 4th biggest constituent of $XLP.
– $PEP, started a position around $130.50.
– $BNBEUR @203 and @172.85
– $AAVEEUR @313

Next Week:
The new stimulus bill was passed on the house.
My predictions are irrelevant because who knows what will happen.

Markets can dump on the news or can rally on hopes of new stimulus checks.

One thing to be aware of is that if the yields keep on rising, gold probably will dump more or gold can rally on the massive money printing.

So, no one, knows what the hell is going to happen.

Earnings

https://www.earningswhispers.com/

I won´t play any earnings this week. I will be watching out of curiosity:
– FuboTV
– box
– NIO
– Slack

WTI
The run was stopped on the long-term trend line.

Oanda WTI CFD weekly

On the daily chart, I would like to see some further consolidation.
Last week, I wrote about a retest on the previous consolidation zone. This zone coincides with the 50DMA which has historical precedence for being a bounce area.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

One interesting thing that also happened last week, the Brent – WTI spreads went negative.
The last time this happened, WTI started an incredible run.

market gauge crude

Gold
There’s blood everywhere on the gold street, miners, ETFs, futures, etc no one was safe this week.

Things do look bad, the chart looks horrible and the yields rising situation isn’t helping at all.

The only lifeboat for gold right now is a flight to safety from the massive money printing to come.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily

Futures premiums are now back to normal. There are no crazy gaps.

market gouge futures curves

One final consideration, the next two months, March and April are not very friendly to gold historically.

market gauge futures

SP500
More blood.

I am buying the dip or whatever the dip means, -10% or 20%.

The environment for stocks is very accommodating, and no major banks or hedge funds seem to be worried. Even our boy JPown is wearing his bull hat.

Technically SP500 is still inside the trend and near the 50DMA which is proven to be a bouncing area.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily


Another asset I am adding to the watchlist this week is the AUDJPY FX pair.
AUDJPY correlates positively with SP500 and may provide an early signal for trend reversal as it trades 24/5.

Oanda AUDJPY
market gauge sp500

DXY
Two important things to have in consideration.

Despite the DXY had broken the trend, It remained sideways.
The 91 level resistance is proving to be super strong and hard to break.

DXY daily

The massive money printing on the US, wont help the DXY bull case as there will be plenty of dollars in the market.

A bearish dollar can be very good for gold and stocks.

Bitcoin
Despite all panic and despair, I think this won’t be the end.

The risk appetite is still pretty much on and I risk to say, this time it will be different.

We are starting to see a lot of “big boys” getting involved with crypto. A lot of big buys are entering the markets and retail is still game on.

Technically, the 41k – 40k level seems to be the demand zone.

Coinbase BTCUSD

US20Y / TLT
I am trying to find a position to go long TLT via DTLA ( TLT but UCTIS).

TLT dropped considerably but the unknown and uncertainty remain about how the bond market will behave with the new $1.9T stimulus.

At $134 It would be a bid for me. Let´s see how this will play out.

TLT daily

Other Notes

Gold DSI on greed.

https://www.traderspro.com/#/marketTrend/sentiment

SP500 DSI of the fear level.

https://www.traderspro.com/#/marketTrend/sentiment

Insiders activity

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Interesting Articles

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/anatomy-bubble-and-crash

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-22/forget-bitcoin-or-tesla-muni-bonds-are-the-king-of-costly

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-02-26/yields-could-move-a-little-bit-higher-jpmorgan-s-stealey-video

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– WORLD PMIs
– USD Fed JPow speaks / ADP Jobs / Factory orders / Jobs
– JPY Consumer confidence
– AUD Cash rates
– EUR German factory orders

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