8 – 12 March 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Well, that got bloody.

A few posts ago, I remembered the importance of the seasonality in March.
It´s usually a period where stocks sell due to tax season.

This last sell-off, I also suspect It was fueled by the need for deleveraging due to the rise of interest rates. It´s now more expensive to have trades open and on margin.

I don´t think is all doom and gloom, but can be a bumpy ride, I will share a special thought below.

Personally, I used the week to do absolutely nothing. I just vegetated and let the market do Its thing.

As fear looms, false investing “Gods” started dumping their SPAC shares on small investors and saw their meme ETFs taking a dive with a regular 5% SP500 drop risking solvency and fund integrity.

Current trades:
– $BABA, Still on.
– $AAPL, Still on.
– $EXXY.MI, Still on.
– $RPLA.W, Still on. Great Finance of America earnings. The meeting for this SPAC is set for 25/03/2021
– $CSPX.AS Still on.
– $DIS,Still on.
– $SXLK, Still on.
– $GDXJ.MI, Still on.
– $GOLD (Barrick Gold), Still on.
– $PLTR,Still on.
– $AWK, Still on.
– $PEP, Still on.
– $BNBEUR Still on.
– $AAVEEUR Still on.
– $PRX (Prosus) is an EU company, started a position at 100.40€.
– $FILEUR started a position at30.16€.
– XTZUSD started a position at $3.49.
– XLMUSD started a position at $0.41.

Next Week:
The most important thing for the next week is the Fed consolidated report for Fed purchases.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details

Last Friday we saw a bounce across all markets, let´s hope It’s not a dead cat bounce.

The last time something like this happened, we saw the sell-off of tech stocks, and this Nasdaq chart is giving me PTSD.
March is also a bad month for the Nasdaq.
Nasdaq longs on CoT were also reduced.

Oanda Nasdaq CFD
market gauge nasdaq
CoT nasdaq

I won´t panic or go full buy the dip mode, I will just wait.
Patience is one of the most important things to stay solvent, there is a limit of how many dips you can actually buy.

Some SPACs lock-up expirations are coming to an end, so expect more blood on the new meme stocks.

WTI
The strength in WTI is amazing, I was expecting to buy a dip on the previous consolidation zone but It is moving fast.

The OPEC+ meeting fuelled up the crude markets.

Last week, I pointed the reference of the negative spreads on BRENT – WTI. The last time it happened the WTI prices skyrocketed, well 2/2 for the year.

I hope I can find a level to buy WTI next week. It´s starting to look very interesting. It closed above the big down trend line.
I will look for a retest of the $62 level and place a bid.

Oanda WTI CFD
market gauge crude

Gold
The pain on this one.
I am very bullish on gold and this dip is a buying opportunity. The tricky part here is how far can the dip go.
The $1680 level sounds like a possible bottom.
The last close was a beautiful pinbar.
On a close above $1724.50, I will consider starting placing bids.

Oanda Gold CFD weekly
gold mean reversions

SP500
The chart looks horrible. Last Fridays can be one of two things:
– a clear reversal and an uptrend continuation
– a retest of the breakdown level

I believe It´s the second, we will see further downside next week.
It´s not the end, It´s not a recession, It´s “normal”.
A lot of new investors have never experienced this kind of pain, and the moves will probably be exponential with people running for the hills.

Patience is your best friend here. You really don’t want to be the first to dive in.

Oanda SP500 CFD
mean reversion sp500

DXY
Was strong all week but end up fading on Friday’s close.
The 92 level is key for DXY.
Every rejection should be a buy on EURUSD.
A clean close above 92, might be scary for stocks, commodities, and some FX pairs.

DXY daily

EURUSD
This is the level (green box) I am looking at, this only enters in play If DXY fails the 92 level.

Oanda EURUSD daily

Bitcoin
Last week’s analysis still stands valid.
I am a bull long term, short term the 40k level seem like a magnet.
The other option is to keep following the purple trendline. The 0.38 Fibonacci is providing to be strong support.

Coinbase BTCUD daily

Arconic
I tend to use http://www.openinsider.com/ a lot and check for insider buying activity.
Last week four c-level / directors bought stock and this got me thinking.

Biden has been promising a new infrastructure bill, and If this happens, Arconic is probably one of the gainers.

It produces light metals focusing on high ESG levels.

The stock is at an “ok” level, so insiders were not buying the dip. They are probably planing for something. Keep it on your radar.

Arconic daily

Other Notes

Insiders transactions

http://www.openinsider.com/

Market sentiment, bears are lurking.

market gauge sentiment

Interesting Articles

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-07/hackers-breach-thousands-of-microsoft-customers-around-the-world

If you speak Portuguese come hang out at this discord:
https://discord.gg/TSaQeTCH

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– CAD Cash rates
– USD NAHB Small Business Index / CPI / Jolts Jobs / Jobs
– JPY Final GDP
– EUR German Industrial production / Sentix Investor Confiance / Cash rates

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