18 -22 January 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
The third week in for 2021 and another crazy week in the world.
In a new round of lockdowns, Trump will be impeached, stocks keep on pumping, Biden announced a new $2T stimulus bill, USD keeps on getting crushed, Gold had a meltdown and I made zero trades.

On a more personal note:
I was talking with a friend that trades/invest too, and we were comparing our 2020 returns.

He likes all the bright and shiny stock memes, $AMD, $TSLA, all the space and pot stocks you can throw at him.

I am a little bit more conservative, I like solid companies, and sectors. I rarely pick specific stocks to go all in and all my YOLOs are in $BTC and $ETH.
Most of my long term holdings are ETFs and the portfolio spare cash is on TIPS.

To be fair, he outperformed me by ~11% but putting things in perspective, he is always stressed with the market and despairs with 2% moves.
I am pretty comfortable leaving 11% on the table to have a good night’s sleep.

Why all of this? To explain that we should always use the market to help us with our objectives. We cannot be slaves of the market.

Position wise: Zero trades were made, all positions remain the same.
I am getting dunked on Gold, need to evaluate. More below.

Next Week:
More earnings:

Earnings whispers

Eyeing at $BAC, $GS, $NFLX and $INTC

Later next week, we will have a lot of Flash PMIs, be aware that bad numbers may influence the FX market/futures.
We are also seeing a lot of new lockdowns and unemployment rates rising.

The edge between the stock market and the real economy is widening.

WTI
Last week, I talked about this possible double top setup. It´s not yet a big confirmed rejection but…

Oanda WTI CFD

My bias is still bearish, despite the market keep proving me wrong.
As my bias cannot be changed by the market arguments, and I don’t want to lose money, I am not trading WTI.

The recent data is actually pretty bullish, we have OPEC cuts, inventories keep drawing down, and the dollar dying is helping the price to stay up.

market gauge crude

One thing to keep and eye is the SPX/CRB ratio(stocks to commodities).
If this weekly setup plays out, this can drive crude prices higher.

SPX/CRB

The futures spreads are saying the current price is ahead of the future, which for me clearly says, low demand.

market gauge WTI futures

Gold
Bloody week, I am currently ok with the state of my positions, the only one I am cautious about is the recent dd @$1815. I will see how the market opens.
Gold can certainly dip below $1800, for me, It´s only an opportunity to buy more.
Call me crazy and I can totally be wrong, but the dollar debasement is here to stay, and I am ready to play the long game.

Oanda Gold CFD

This is a very ugly chart, on the bright side, we are still above the 255DMA (Purple line).
Things sustaining the gold bulls:
– Dollar debasement
– Real rates (US Yields – US inflation) are all negative.
– Despite all the blood, the bull sentiment persists and the flows support this.

market gauge Gold

GLD and GDX are flirting with their 365 trading days mean reversion.


SP500
There’s not much I can say about this apart from how ridiculous this chart looks like.

Oanda SP500 CFD

I am keeping an eye on the moving averages global as a sign of weakness on the index. These week, we had a substancial increase on the constituents below their 30DMA.

market gauge SPX

Volatility
Finally looks like we are going to start to have some fun.
Vol is looking nice to start a position here.
Why:
CTAs SKEW short equity trigger triggered twice.

market gauge volatility

VIX futures are finally trading at a positive spread.

market gauge vix futures

SP500 seasonality helps supporting a short term bearish view.

equityclock.com

I will start looking into creating a position on $LVO.MI

Other Notes
Insiders selling palooza.

http://www.openinsider.com/

SP500 price to earnings at highs:

https://www.longtermtrends.net/

Interesting Articles

MacroVoices #254 Luke Gromen: The FED Faces No Easy Choices

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World Flash PMIs
– USD Monday is MLK day / Philly Fed Man. Index / Unemployment claims
– CNY – GDP /Industrial production / Retail sales / Unemployment rate
– EUR – ZEW / CPI / Cash rates
– AUD – Job numbers
– CAD – Cash rates

11 – 15 January 2021 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From the last YEAR:
A lot had happened last year, covid, Brexit, Hong Kong – China situation, negative oil prices, Trump going full bananas, pick your poison.

For me, It was a profitable trading year, but who doesn’t make money on bull markets?!

As a new year starts, before diving in and share what I am holding, I would like to share my final thoughts and considerations, what I have learned.

– Patience, as a trader or investor we are always eager to see that green P&L, sometimes things don’t happen on our timeframe, but they do happen. Wait for the trade to come to you and don’t rush. There are more tides than sailors.

– People are just dumb, everyone and their mother are traders now. If you recently joined the markets, You might be thinking this is easy. It is not. Trading is the hardest way to make easy money. When things return to normalcy, and they will. Be prepared for a chock in returns.

– Comum sense, one of the most underrated things in the world.
I understand the appeal of stocks such as TSLA, the returns have been massive and I understand why people hold/trade them.
What I don’t understand is the cult behind Elon Musk. History proved times and times that this kind of cult, such as Enron, Theranos, Madoff, etc is very dangerous.

– Don´t be greedy, profits are profits. Only a few people in the world traded their way to be millionaires. Set your goals and use the market as a shortcut to achieve them.

Update from December positions:
– The positions on gun stocks $SWBI and $RGR paid big money. +45% on $SWBI and +20% on $RGR. PATIENCE! after waiting 1 month for them to move, they completed the movement in two days.

– Holding $AG, $GDXJ.MI and bought $GOLD(Barrick Gold), $AG is still green, but $GOLD is a bit underwater. Still long GOLD CFD too.

I don´t like to have a lot of positions or trade heavily, I like to build sizable positions on specific bets. Let´s see how they carry to 2021.

Next Week:
Earnings bonanza again.

Earnings Whispers

I will only be watching banks, want to see how they fared during this last quarter.

WTI
My bias on WTI is still the same, lack of demand should drive prices lower.
As the price is proving me wrong over and over, I am staying out of it.
Things to have in consideration:
Approaching hard resistance of $54

Oanda WTI CFD

Current month contracts are still trading at a premium for #6 and #12. That’s why I am still holding to my lack of demand bias.

Market Gauge WTI futures curve

Inventories keep somehow drawing down, production cuts are helping.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard
WTI mean reversions

Gold
Last week was brutal, the all metals comp got destroyed.
I am still holding and building positions in the sector. Especially miners.
Now, about Gold:
I know the chart looks confusing so let’s break it down.
– Gold is bouncing on the 200DMA pink line
– And it’s forming what looks like an inverted head and shoulders.
This is supporting a possible support zone and bullish case.

Oanda Gold CFD

This zone can act as a support. The volume is there.

Gold trading zones
Gold mean reversions

Finally the premium closed on the #6 and #12 futures contract.

market gauge GOLD futures curves
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


SP500
Just pure insanity, despite all the bad stuff happening, the market, is still roaring. No point fighting it.

Oanda SP500 CFD

A few more charts:

SP500 mean reversions
SP500 trading zones
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

What I am looking for in early 2021

Shipping:
Yup, tankers again. When things return to possible normalcy, tankers will be needed to transport all that crude to power up factories and the return to normal.

Cargo ships, emerging markets like China, are returning to normality and the demand for coal is roaring.

Stocks: $SHIP, $TNK, $STNG, $EURN

Tech:
Not traditional tech but tech that provides experiences. Specially VR and AR.

Stocks: $WISA, $AYX, $DT, $ON, $LITE, $VUZI, $IMMR, $NEXCF

Commodities + Agriculture + Food and Water:
As the dollar insists on dying, there’s no better play than commodities.

Stocks: $EXXY.DE, $AVO, $VIE, $TSN, $BAYN.DE

Volatility:
If you follow the blog for some time, you know I love volatility and my go-to bad boy is $LVO.MI.

Bitcoin and Etherum:
If you don’t have 5% of your portfolio in BTC and ETH you are missing out big time. Use major sell-off to buy more. Cryptos are here to stay, expect all the weird shitcoins.

FX:
EURCAD – Very beautiful cup and handle on the weekly chart.

Oanda EURCAD

EURGBP – Take advantage of the perpetual range. Trade it wisely.

Oanda EURGBP

Emerging markets:
With USD being attacked by the big bear, EMs are rising and shining.
Stocks: $IEMB.MI, $EIMI.MI (European ETFs)

Other Notes
Sentiment is super bullish

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders keep selling their bags on every rally.

Open insider

Interesting Articles
The most exciting news for European investors, vanguard brought their Life Strategy ETFs across the ocean. Quoted in EUR and Accumulation.
The ETFs are already available on interactive brokers.

https://global.vanguard.com/portal/site/kiids/pt/pt/documents

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR Lagardspeaks / Industrial production
– USD Jolts Jobs / CPI / Unemployment claims / Empire state manufacturing index / Industrial production
– JPY Economic Watchers Sentiment / Core machinery orders

13 -17 December 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a crappy week, positions on gold CFD and GDXJ were hammered.
$RGR and $SWBI are between ranges.
$AG got hammered as a Silver proxy.
Trading wise, It wasn´t a very nice week.

I finally finished the Z-score strategy, I am just trying to increase Its execution performance, It´s a huge time-series.

I played a bunch of cyberpunk 2077, because why not? Such a great game.

I am also making an application that I want to open source. A simple console application that runs on the command line where you can consult the options chains, company profile, metrics, news, etc for a specific ticker. It´s in development.

Next Week:
I won´t make a fancy weekly post probably until next year. As the year is ending, I will take the next few weeks to review my trade log and meditate on what I did right/wrong, clean up my development backlog and visit some friends and relatives.

Taking some time from the market is important for me, helps me to reset my bias and reduce the stress levels.

Some thoughts about the market though:
– SP500 last Friday close was insane, the dip was bought fiercely.
– Gold is hanging in there, still bullish above $1800.
– WTI is just insane, a 15M barrel build and it barely moved.
– The dollar will probably retest the 91 level.
I have a gut feeling that the rug will be pulled by the end of this month.

Word of “some” wisdom, take the time to enjoy the money you manage to extract from the markets. It´s important to have a market – life balance.
Being a participant in the market can be like an addiction, It is for me, and the way I managed to detox is to take a break from time to time.
2020 was a rough year overall, and the perspectives for early 2021 are a little grim.
Take care of yourself and your family, help each other, work on yourself and on your surroundings, your market skills will improve as you improve and a person.

Alerts!
– Be aware It´s quad witching
– Tesla inclusion on SP500, expect a lot of volatility (Friday´s close)

Interesting Articles

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/call-volumes-absolutely-absurd-nomura-warns-sentiment-overshoot-getting-scary-ahead-quad

Carson Block’s new project, Zer0esTV is very, very good.
https://www.zer0es.tv/category/interviews-and-analysis/

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

07 – 11 December 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Trading wise everything remains the same.
I am long the same positions:
$AG: doing fine
$SWBI and $RGR: Are okish, didn’t move much since I went long
$GOLD: Doing fine too, It was a strong week.
$GDXJ.MI: Being quoted on EUR is messing up the PnL a little, but It´s still good.

Started working on a new z-score algorithm, and will probably share a new report soon.
The idea is to have a dashboard with all major us indices stocks, and also calculate average z-scores historically.

Next Week:
I am planning just to watch and maintain the positions. I will focus mainly on development.
In Portugal, we have a holiday on Tuesday, I will take Monday and Tuesday to rest and probably play some PC games.
I will also keep this week´s post short and concise.

WTI
It was a very strong week for WTI, the priced push nicely above some important lines.
Last Friday’s close was above the year-to-date mean reversion which means we are in bullish momentum.
The only bad thing to have in consideration, technically, is the candle close. It´s a bearish candle.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

I am still bearish on WTI, the demand keeps on shrinking and last week´s OPEC meeting wasn´t insightful at all.

Gold
Gold had a strong week, probably potentially propped by the Dollar weakness.
Technically the setup looks nice, It´s still inside the pattern (pink lines). The next area of consideration is the orange box, if Gold manage to break above it, I will buy more on the retest.
The last candle, It´s a mixed signal candle, some indecision exists on the market.
Another consideration, the last time Gold broke the 200DMA, it quickly bounced back and had a huge rally.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


SP500
It´s almost pointless to do any kind of analysis on the SP500, It just goes up and up.
Technically the chart looks horrible, and an eminent crash looks very probable.
It´s on the top of the purple trend line, and It´s printing a rising wedge, inside a megaphone formation.
A revisit to the 3200 target looks possible, but who knows. This bull has a lot of strength.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Dollar
Oh boy, this puppy looks ready to die.
As it broke the 92 floor, the next solid one is at 90.
Technically, the dollar looks super weak.

DXY daily chart

The dollar to Stocks ratio just gave up on life.

DXY / P500 Futures
CoT DXY

Other Notes
The FX market is going insane with these dollar movements and Brexit

Market Gauge FX dashboard

Extreme greed

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Insiders keep on selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR German Industrial Prod / Economic ZEW / Cash rates
– USD Jobs / Jobs Jolts / CPI / PPI
– JPY GDP / Economic Sentiment Watchers / BSI
– CAD cash rates

30 November – 4 December 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Bulls still dominate the market, everything is up, stocks, bonds, hedges …
It´s a full-on bananas market.

I added to my GOLD at $1812.
Created a new position on GDXJ (GDXJ.MI).
Still long $AG, $RGR, and $SWBI.

The new gold related positions are a bit dicey, but they are the first positions on a bigger fill order.

Next Week:
A lot of economic data will be released, PMIs, jobs, US ADP, etc.
It will be a crazy week, be prepared for more vaccine news.

Trade wise, I will monitor my new positions and watch if Tech keeps rolling over.

WTI
Technically, WTI seems extended. The near term target should be a retest of the $40 level.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

On the fundamentals, inventories kept on building and the spread between Brent and WTI went negative. Usually this indicates a disturbance in the market.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

On the futures, the spread between the front month, and #6 / #12 almost reached parity (0) which indicates an acceptance of the current price.

Market Gauge WTI futures
Crude futures correlation with US30Y yield

Overall, I maintain my bearish view on WTI. The price correlation with supply/ demand is just ridiculous. I wont fight the bull, but I am watching for when It caves. I expect WTI to revisit the $30 level.

Gold
Starting with last week´s analysis.
I wasn´t expecting gold to retest the $1800 area, so I decided to go against the plan and start adding to my long term position.
It´s the first new position on a series of additions, I will buy more for each $50 drop, or on a clean break above $1850.
Technically, the chart looks “ok-ish”, the trendline hold, and the buyers appeared to defend it.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily

Gold is still trading far from the mean reversion lines, and Gold Volatility ($GVZ) is a bit suppressed.
The futures spreads are consolidating, but are still a bag of mixed feelings and indecision.
The current level also offers some support.

Market Gauge Gold dashboard
Market Gauge Gold futures
Gold trading ranges for the last 365 days of trading
Gold last 365 trading days mean reversion

Overall, I am bullish on Gold long term.
I think every dip must be bought.


SP500
It feels like we keep stretching the elastic, and one day it will break and hit us in the face.
Technically, looks like it is forming some sort of megaphone.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

This formation supports a near term bearish view.
Taking this and plotting DXY/SP500 chart, we can see the dollar is also trying to gain some momentum.

DXY / ES1!

A few considerations about S&P500, overall this looks super bullish. Nothing changed momentum wise. Constituents are still trading above 250 DMA.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

GEX is relatively high, It is acting as a brake.

Data from https://squeezemetrics.com

It never revisited It´s YTD mean reversion of 3310, and the current Point Of Control is 3330.

SP500 last 365 trading days mean reversions

PE´s are insanely high.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

The correlation between S&P500 Futures volume and VIX, usually proxies the next S&P500 movement, it looks to be down.

S&P500 futures volume Vs VIX settle

Other Notes
The bull mode is still on.

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders keep on selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/

One important correlation on copper is the correlation with the Australian dollar. They usually move intertwined.
Copper had a huge rally, one of them need to catch up with the other.

AUD Futures Vs Copper futures

Interesting Articles

SSRN paper “Gamma Fragility”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3725454

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World PMIs
– USD Factory Orders / Jobs / ADP / Chicago PMI/ Powell
– CHF Economic barometer
– JPY Unemployment rate / Consumer confidence
– EUR Lagarde / Unemployment rate / German factory orders
– CNY Caixin data

23 – 27 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
It´s that time of the year, a lot of research is coming out for 2021, been reading a lot on that, especially FX. Living and trading in Europe and using dollars to trade can have a lot of impact on my returns.

So, I am focusing on adapting my trade and finding new ways to be less dependant on dollars. By doing this I am also finding a lot of nice ETFs listed on EU based on EUR.

The positions are still the same, $AG, $RGR, $SWBI, and GOLD (CFD).
$AG and Gold are doing fine.
The guns trade is very speculative and didn´t pay off, yet, I hope. Both are trading near my entry point.

Next Week:
Last Friday we had OPEX and the market rolled off.
I don´t think this was a massive event, It was just a regular OPEX with a pinch of salt that a lot of options were bought/sold because of the US elections, traders wanted protection.
SP500 might drop a few points but will see a buy the dip event.

This week we also have the Flash PMIs results across the world.

I hope volatility comes back, I will probably go long VIX via $LVO.MI

All eyes on the dollar and commodities.

WTI
Stocks have been rising for two weeks in a row, and demand has been decreasing.
OPEC outcome was sort of “meh”, I guess the market was expecting heavy cuts.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

Technically we are reaching a heavy sell zone. I believe WTI has no business being at this level, but It´s hard to argue with the market.
I haven´t trade WTI for a long, long time and maybe now It´s the time to come back and start dipping my toes on a short, Let´s see how it reacts to the resistance.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Gold
I really want to see Gold going to $1850 – $1800 but I don´t think I will see it.
Maybe if stocks roll over a bit, gold breaks but every dip is being bought hard.
I won´t build a new position on Gold (CFD) at his level for now, but maybe I will buy the gold miners ETF. By buying miners, I sort of guarantee my participation in a new gold rally.

Market Gauge Gold dashboard

Reasons to be alert on gold bullishness:
– $GVZ (Gold volatility) dropped hard, which may raise a few flags.
– We are far, far away from mean reversion levels.
– The dollar took a beating and maybe is due for a bounce, pushing gold to head lower.
– Gold futures contracts, the front month is trading at a premium relative to long-term ones.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily
Market Gauge Gold futures

SP500
There´s not much to say, technically It looks is due to a pullback.
Long-term chart outlook, maybe forming an inverted head and shoulders.
Overall It looks bullish.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Dollar
Bears are showing no love for the dollar and the Fed ain´t helping.
A lot of market outlooks for 2021 are pointing to as much as a 20% drop on the dollar, which is pretty scary for non-US traders.

COT report shows, asset managers are staking shorts:

COT DXY dashboard

Despite all of this bearishness, nothing goes down on a straight line, and the dollar looks due for a big bounce.

DXY daily

I am keeping an eye on this, I want to buy dips on commodities, especially commodity swaps ETF such as $EXXY.
Another thing to keep an eye on is DXY/SP500 ratio, looks primed for a dollar bounce.

DXY / ES1! daily

Other Notes

The sentiment is massively bullish.

Market Gauge Sentiment

Insiders keep on selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/

Tanker rates are going down.

https://fearnpulse.com/

NYSEFANG looking for a retest on the breakdown.

NYSE FANG index

Interesting Articles

https://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/Q3-CVALUE-Review_FINAL.pdf?mc_cid=b2fb850a05&mc_eid=2fd1a72551

https://think.ing.com/reports/2021-fx-outlook-back-on-track-report/

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World Flash PMIs
– USD CB Consumer confidence / Richmond Man. Index / Durable goods
– JPY Tokyo CPI
– EUR GER GDP / Ifo Climate / GFK Consumer climate

16 – 20 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week.
The US drama election keeps ongoing, Trump still claims the win, and cracks on Biden´s ranks are cracking.
Behind this, markets are rallying and posing to make new highs.

I got duped on last week’s volatility trade and had to cut short the losses for a tiny profit.

Still long and strong $AG and Gold CFD since what feels like forever.

New positions on $RGR and $SWBI are not for cardiacs, they move insanely intraday. Still holding and above water.

Most of you know I live in Portugal since last week we entered another severe lockdown so I am trying to keep busy at home without burning myself out. I just discovered this site.

https://hq.ssrn.com/rankings/Ranking_display.cfm?TRN_gID=10

It´s a free repository for research papers for dozens of different areas. I just print them and seat on the sofa reading at my own pace.
Or just binge watch some TV-show, whatever is rocking my boat at the time.

Next Week:
More earnings, not just earnings but a lot of Chinese ADRs earnings.
China is posting a record recovery, let´s see how ADRs behave.
I personally don’t like to trade Chinese stocks, especially big names such as $BABA, $NIO, $JD, etc. They are too crazy and I can correlate the Tesla cult with the Chinese tech cult.

Earnings Whispers

More “noise” is coming to the markets this week, I am alert and trying to clear my mind in a way I can see past the fog. SP500 will probably do a new record high because of the rotation between Growth / Value.

Being patient is also trading, and not to trade due to uncertainty is also ok.
The urge to jump on the train is real, I have to persuade myself almost every day to stick to what I can understand and just play what I foresee.

WTI
WTI is still trading inside the “magic” channel.
Last week´s rejection of the $42 level and the following 3 red candles is pointing that market participants think WTI gone up too fast.

Oanda WTI CFD daily


Current price is diverging from the current futures curve, long term #6 and #12 contracts are trading at a positive premium.

Market Gauge WTI futures curve

My bias on WTI is still bearish, the demand isn´t there and we probably are heading to another massive lockdown worldwide.
We also have OPEC this week, some news may rock this market.

Gold
Gold seems very fragile, and somethings that´s throwing me off is that despite all this chaos, gold isn´t moving, a lot.
This probably indicates that people are ok living in chaos, and It´s not time to buy more gold, yet.
Technically It looks weak, and a revisit on the desired $1800 level seems very likable.

Oanda CFD Gold daily


Another thing to consider on the bear side, Gold #6 and #12 futures are trading at a negative spread related to the current contract, and $GVZ is below Its mean reversion.

Market Gauge Gold futures curve
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


Long term I am bullish on gold, I want to add to my paper and physical bags.
At $1850 – $1800, I will definitely start adding to my positions.


SP500
Well, There’s nothing much to say, we probably are going to see new highs.
The rotation between Growth/Value is adding new fuel to this rocket.
Technically the chart looks like trash, It´s a parabolic move with some pretty insane candles.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily


What I learned this year about stocks:
-forget the reason
-forget logic
-forget stock valuations.
Stocks only go up and buy every single dip.

I don´t do this, I don´t understand this, that´s why I am probably wrong about SP500 a lot of times this year.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Dollar
I am watching the dollar very closely.
When shit hits the fan, market participants will start driving into the dollar for safety.

I think I already shared this, but here goes again. On an intraday basis I watch this dashboard:

Risk monitor


As you can see, as the US 10 Year Yield goes up, and the dollar goes down, stocks go up, and vice versa.
So, watch closely this correlation, a weak US10Y yield, and a strong dollar, will probably be the trigger a lot of traders are looking at.

DXY daily


Other Notes
The market is in bull mode.

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders are keeping to date their insane selling spree:

http://www.openinsider.com/

Insane PE´s coming from USA:

https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– CNY Industrial production / Retail Sales / Unemployment rate
– USD Empire State Man. Index / Retail sales / NAHB Index / ADP Jobs / Jobs
– EUR Lagard Speaks / CPI
– GBP CPI / PPI

9 – 13 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Well, I couldn’t miss more plans than I did.
US elections are sort of done, Biden won and Trump is out.

Historically the market didn´t behave as “normal” and pulled a huge rally.

My LVO position got stoped with profit, I can´t distress this enough, manage your trades. I am planning to get back in, volatility is still cheap.

Failed to add on gold, couldn’t cat a bid for $1850.

$AG is going fine.

Added two new positions on $SWBI and $RGR, took last Thursday’s dump to add with size.

I will give more details on the specific sections below.

Next Week:
I am expecting a lot of drama due to the US elections and a shift of attention from the US election to Brexit and corona. This will probably trigger some kind of volatility, the trick is to know what.

More earnings:

Earnings Whispers

Special attention to:
– Rocket, business is booming
– Corsair, gaming on lockdown probably boosted the sales heavily
– Farfetch, a new deal with Alibaba
– Palantir, the most mysterious company in the world that keeps operating on a massive loss, despite having huge contracts.

I am expecting volatility across equities and FX. I am betting on a bumpy ride till the end of the year.

WTI
Had a failed break down the previous week and know It´s trading inside the channel again.
It needs to break the $40 mark to enter a new trend.
Fundamentally I think the narrative is still the same, lack of demand for such a huge supply.
Technically, It bounced perfectly on the 0.38 Fibonacci.

Oanda WTI CFD

The 90 days mean reversion is a little skewed but are behaving like support/resistance zones.

WTI Mean Reversion last 90 days
Market Gauge Crude Dashboard

Gold
Gold just broke out, again.
As shared last week, I was planning on adding to my gold position between $1850 – $1800. Unfortunately, I didn’t get my bid.
The uncertainty of US politics and the weakness of the dollar is boosting gold and this does not look very supportive for the long term, I would really like to see further consolidation.
Gold is trading between a channel, and the next few days will decide what will happen.

Bare in mind that last time the markets sold off, the dollar jumped and primed as the safe haven to be, this will have consequences to gold.

Oanda Gold CFD

I am also looking to the price of gold in YEN, Yen being one of the major safe havens currencies. Gold just broke out, which can support the bull narrative.

Gold 365 days mean reversion

On the bear side, the exposure to the dollar moves is a very important thing to have in consideration.
The $GVX (Gold volatility) proximity to It´s mean reversion of $24.

Market Gauge Gold Dashboard

And last but not least, Gold futures are trading at a negative premium. The current contract is substantially more expensive than the two references for #6 and #12. Which points to a red flag on the current price.

Market Gauge Futures Curve Gold


SP500
S&P500 is playing a dangerous game, It´s again at the top of the channel and It´s decision time.

Oanda SP500 CFD

I was expecting a lot of volatility last week, but market gods played me for a fool. And provided a huge rally based on uncertainty and chaos. We are really on a multi-billion dollar casino.

Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Be prepared for a possible buy the rumor and sell the news event.

GUNS
Last week based on the US elections chaos and indecision I decided to go long on two gun stocks. $SWBI and $RGR.
I got sort of lucky, I took advantage of the Thursdays sell-off and market bought my positions.
Technically they seem strong and fundamentally I think we will have a gun race in the US.

SWBI and RGR charts

Volatility
If you read my market preparation posts, you already noticed that volatility is always a core position for me. I do enjoy trading It and It provides sort of an edge to market down movements.

Last week, volatility imploded and I had to sell my bag.
I am planning to get back in again but when It´s the great incognito.
For the next week, I am looking at $GVZ, $VIX, and $EVZ. Gold, equities, and Euro volatility.

Market Gauge Volatility Dashboard

Other Notes
Equities to Commodities ratio, It broke down last week. Let´s see how this plays out. The setup on the ratio was pretty bullish, we had a bullish continuation pattern. Next week will let If this was a rejection or a fakeout.

SPX/ TRJEFFCRB

Sentiment turned bullish,again:

Market Gauge Sentiment

Insiders are selling massively:

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

Nordea FX weekly: Biden is not that reflationary, is he?
https://e-markets.nordea.com/article/61093

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR Sentix / ZEW
– USD Jobs / CPI / PPI / Powell Speaks
– JPY Economic watches sentiment / Core machinery orders

2 – 6 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week ahead of US elections. S&P500 made some crazy moves.
I was aiming for a retest of the ~3500 level but it didn’t cut it.

Earnings keep on coming out and a lot of companies are betting expectations. This makes me feel sort of uneasy in a way I don´t know if the numbers are cooked or not.

Current trades are doing fine:
– $AG is consolidating with silver
– $LVO finally ramped, you buy volatility when It´s low. When It pays, It pays hard.
– Gold CFD, consolidating, and gaining weakness with the dollar momentum. more below on the gold section)

Next Week:
US elections week!
As I write this, markets are pointing for a red open.

https://www.ig.com/en/weekend-trading

I am expecting a lot of volatility this week with a relief rally when the US election results come out.

It will be a very hard week to trade, I am expecting big swings on equities and FX.

On top of this, we have another action packed week of earnings.

Earnings Whispers

WTI
We closed below the “summer box” I will risk saying this points to doom for oil in the short term.

Bare in mind that the US elections results will influence a lot the WTI price as Biden is against the oil industry and fracking.

Prepare for a lot of volatility, This week is a no trade on the oil market for me.

Oanda CFD WTI

Gold
The yellow metal is being highly correlated with the dollar these last few weeks.
As the dollar gains strength, gold is pointing to retest the ~$1800.
I am looking at these as a huge opportunity to add to my position, at $1800-$1850.

Last September supports area looks strong, It is also the 0 Fibonacci level.

Oanda Gold CFD

SP500
The last two trading days were insane, the candles point to total indecision.
Despite this, the movements and volume were clearly pointing to the downside.
Even SPY flows were negative.

https://www.trackinsight.com/en/

A big chunk of the S&P constituents are also turning bearish, the bull-bear lines are at ~47% to the bear side

Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Technically the chart looks week too, a retest of ~3100 seems very likely.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

Finally, the market volume spiked in the last two weeks when selling was taking place. Which gives Its strength to the bearish bias.

Market Gauge Market Tape Dashboard

Dollar
The dollar index just broke out last week with some strength. Maybe investors are running to the dollar ahead of this week’s uncertainty.

DXY daily chart

A lot of action on the FX markets too, AUD and CAD showing some weakness ahead of cash rate decisions.

Market Gauge FX Dashboard

Other Notes

Tanker rates are taking a dive.

https://fearnpulse.com/

Sentiment is a bag of mix feelings.

Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Safe havens are also mixed. CHF is consolidating and Gold is reacting to dollar strength.

Market Gauge Safe Havens Dashboard

More insider selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

How the Electoral College works

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World PMIs
– USD Factory Orders/ Jobs data / FOMC
– German factory orders / Industrial production
– AUD cash rates
– CAD cash rates

26 – 30 October 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week, SP500 making huge intraday swings, uncertainty reigns in the markets, and huge earnings blow out.

I am still for the major side on the sidelines, there’s too much I don´t “understand” so I prefer to be conservative. I know I am missing on huge returns, but I prefer to sleep without the worry of a market meltdown.
And there are other ways to keep investing. I recently added Masterworks.io painting shares to my portfolio, If there’s interest in it, I will make a post about it.

I am still long $AG , $LVO.MI and Gold CFD.

Next Week:
More earnings ahead, last week was pretty good earnings wise. Intel was a huge upset and Southwest Airlines a huge surprise.
I don´t really know what to think about Tesla, I sort of believe everything is a big scheme, but who knows…

The week ahead:

Earnings Whispers

I will be watching Flastly, It will be interesting to see what happens after last week’s disappointment on US and Bitedance (China /TikTok rivalry).
Microsoft is almost a certain beat with a rally, same as Apple and Amazon.
Curious about how Jetblue is doing, I wasn´t expecting the $LUV earnings.
Facebook will be a huge upset, in my opinion, the ad´s revenue ll be very bad,
The last ones are the big pharma, Pfizer, Moderna, and Gilead

WTI
WTI keeps inside the trading channel/trend lines.
I already explained my narrative, there´s no demand for the excess supply.
I think oil is heading lower, probably retest of – $30.

Oanda WTI CFD daily
Market Gauge Crude Dashboard

Gold
The yellow metal It´s trapped on the current level.
My reading is that every move is dependant on how the dollar is moving, and the uncertainty of the US elections is making gold numb.

Fun fact $GVC, gold volatility, is approaching Its lows of $20.
Technically, gold broke out a bull pennant and should be up, the failure to push through $1900 cloud be a warning.

I am still watching the $1800 level to add to my position with size (yellow area).

Oanda Gold CFD daily
Market Gauge Gold Dashboard


SP500
This big boy, the choppiness is unreal…
Last week’s swings were between a 79 points range, with intraday drops of 30-40 points. That´s huge money on the table.

SPX cash session

Technically looks like we are revisiting the 3500 level, again before a drop.

Oanda CFD SP500

To be fair, the market is holding nicely, the 250DMA is above 62%.
One thing to have in consideration, the impact of the US elections on the dollar and therefore on the stocks. Stocks are a huge yield provider for many investors in the US and If USD is no longer appellative, they will look somewhere else for that yield.

Themes
We are at that time that the “manias” will start moving again.
My special candidates are $AVO, Mission Produce, an avocado producing company.

Avo daily

$TLRY, Tilray a cannabis producing company, just broke out and could eye $11.

TLRY daily

The last mania is guns, after US elections, doesn’t matter which side wins, there will be a huge blowout. Guns will be back again with full force. I am eying $RGR Rugger and $SWBI Smith and Wesson.

SWBI and RGR daily

Other Notes
FX is going insane, CAD and AUD look very vulnerable.

Market Gauge FX

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR German Ifo climate / Cash rate / Jobs
– USD Durable goods / GDP / Chicago PMI
– CAD Cash rate / GDP
– CNY PMIs