A importância das correlações

Para mim, o factor de correlação é um dos mais substimados.

Durante as nossas sessões de trading, é normal assumirmos algumas posições longas / curtas em diferentes ativos sem nos preocuparmos em saber qual a sua correlação.

Como qualquer lição aprendida na vida de um trader, a mesma veio com um custo. 

Tinha setups quase perfeitos para negociar dois pares de FX, EURCHF e USDPLN.

EURCHF, estavamos numa altura de que o apetite para o risco era muito grande na zona euro, tinha feito o bounce perfeito na zona de suporte e estava dentro de um rising wedge no segundo impulso. Eram as circunstâncias quase perfeitas para ir longo. 

USDPLN, o zloty estava em caida a semanas, estava numa linha que parecia ter encontrado um suporte. Face a força que o Euro estava a ter esta semana, parecia uma excelente oportunidade para ir curto USDPLN

Ou seja no meio disto tudo, fui longo EURCHF e curto USDPLN com lotes completos pois a confiança era muita.

Poucas horas após colocar o trade, tive uma reunião de trabalho que não me permitiu estar a acompanhar as posições. Quando consegui voltar aos monitores apercebi-me que as minhas posições tinham atingido o stop loss. Fiquei um bocado perplexo pois na minha cabeça tinha os setups perfeitos. Foi então que a comentar com uns amigos que um deles me apresentou a famosa correlação entre ativos. 

O EURCHF esta inversamente correlacionado com o USDPLN. E o que é que isto significa? Bem, ao ir longo EURCHF e curto USDPLN, as duas posições movimentavam-se no mesmo sentido, ou seja o meu risco dobrou sem eu ter isso em conta. 

Foi então que me recomendaram o livro:

https://www.amazon.com/Intermarket-Analysis-Profiting-Relationships-Trading/dp/0471023299

As correlações são de facto muito importantes e usadas de forma inteligente podem ser mais uma ferramenta no cinto de um trader.

Por exemplo, o par EURAUD esta inversamente correlacionado com o SPX. Isto pode ser uma forma inteligente de usarmos alavancagem para negociar o SPX, pois existem várias corretoras com CFDs de forex.

Deixo aqui um exemplo de um quadro de correlação forex. 

A leitura é feita tendo em conta que:

valor entre 0 e 1, os pares movimentam-se no mesmo sentido.

valor entre 0 e -1, os pares movimentam-se no sentido inverso

Se quiserem consultar em realtime
https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools/fx-correlations-table/tool-details

6 – 10 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Well, what a crazy start for 2020 right?
I am exercising one of the most difficult skills I had to require to trade. Patience, patience to see the market move without doing nothing.
I learned by playing with fire I should only trade in an environment I know.
It´s not news that I think the SP500 is toppy and some stocks are on hyperbolic mode. A retrace is needed. I am not saying the “R” word (recession) but a pullback is due. That being said, with the war song playing, PMIs contracting again I don’t feel I have a clear read on the market so I am just observing.
That being said I am still long GOLD and OIL/Energy.

GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures. This is breaking out hard, a pullback might happen which I will use to buy gold sovereigns.

Energy / Oil
Same recommendations from the previous weeks. WTI will chase the SP500.
WTI is breaking up hard and the fear of war might pump it to the moon.
To be honest I don’t know when will be the right time to dive in if you are not already in because this ship as sailed and is going fast.

SP500
Well this is a though one.
Last friday to war fears the SP500 dropped more than 1% on the European session, but when the cash session started on the US the dip buyers came with a vengeance.
To be honest I dont know how this is going to play out. a bear divergence is forming and a MACD bear cross triggered. If a close below the trendline happens it might trigger some major shorts.
It´s going to be a week to exercise patience.
IG Weekend trading prices the Dow 66.5 points lower.

EURAUD
The setup looks pretty self explanatory and It´s negative correlated with the SP500

Events:
Monday
JPY – Manufacturing PMI
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – Services PMI
EUR – Sentix consumer confidence
USD – Services PMI

Tuesday
EUR- CPIs
USD – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI
USD – Factory Orders

Wednesday
JPY – Consumer Confidence
EUR – Germany factory orders
USD – ADP Non farm employment

Thursday
EUR – German Industrial Production
EUR – Unemployment rate
USD – Unemployment rate


Friday
EUR – French Industrial production
EUR – Italy Industrial production
CAD – Employment change
CAD – Unemployment rate
USD – Average Hourly Earnings
USD – Non farm employment change
USD – Unemployment rate

30 Dec 2019 – 03 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
It´s a holiday week so my trading will be restricted and almost risk exposed free.
This time I will try share a few ideias I am monitoring for 2020.

GOLD
Repeating last week warning:
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures.

USD
DXY looks ready to die, eyeing low 90s.
A new argument making the mix shows EM countries are prefering to emit debt in EUR then USD. This is a big shift. See files (https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAId-LpqI9xjwJ5V_-yg507q94nZSxvOC9hrYjQCNj1XJrMhIYk4).
This for the all year of 2020 can be very bullish to EUR and commodities.
Commodities being what I am focusing the most.
Playing commodities via Futures or CFDs can be expensive so I am using ETFs such us $MOO, $WOOD, $GLD, $COPX and $JJG.

Energy / Oil
A huge squeeze of this sector is about to happen. The market is rotating nicely to value and XLE is preparing to shine.
WTI looks like to want to play catch up with SPX.
I am placing a few bets on some coal stocks too, they look beatdown. At some point some relief is due to happen because the cash balance and assets on those companies are pretty good.

Market
I already said this a few times. The market looks toppy to me but as a trader you have to be able to shift and change you opinion based on what you see/get.
So I am not saying I am a bull/bear. Some stocks look toppy but there are a few sectors that look prime to shine, I believe shipping is one of them. IMO2020 is going to kick in, and historically when chaos enters the shipping markets, It rallies hard. For this, check the BALTIC Dry index for more clues https://stockcharts.com/acp/?s=%24BDI

Some small bets across the market I am looking: $WISA, $EROS, $ACB, $PLUG, $IDEX

Events:
Monday
CHF – KOF Economic Barometer
USD – Chicago PMI

Tuesday
USD – CB Consumer confidence
CNY – Manufacturing PMI
CNY – Non Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday

Thursday
CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
EUR – Manufacturing PMI
CAD – Manufacturing PMI
USD – Manufacturing PMI
GBP – Manufacturing PMI
USD – Jobs

Friday
USD – ISM PMI
USD – FOMC
CHF – Manufacturing PMI

23 – 27 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
It´s a holiday week so my trading will be restricted and almost risk exposed free

SPX
Between us, It´s extended. A pullback is due despite I am being a bull or a bear.
If you pair the SPX charts with a distribution Wyckoff chart you will see some similarities, we are at UTAD phase.


EURGBP
So I am looking to long EURGBP. It looks like it wants the break the downside channel. Williams Alligator It´s almost biting. And It bounced on a nice support.
Now that all the brexit shenanigans are done, I am looking for the pound to retrace some of the crazy gains.

GOLD
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures.

Energy / Oil
A huge squeeze of this sector is about to happen. The market is rotating nicely to value and XLE is preparing to shine.
WTI looks like to want to play catch up with SPX

Events:
Monday
CAD – GDP
USD – Durable Goods
USD- Home sales

Tuesday
USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday

Thursday
USD – Job claims
JPY – Unemployment rate

Friday
CHF – Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

16 – 20 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Well, this week I am looking into VACATIONS!
Old material still applies watch SPX for Trump tweets and confirmation of the china deal fase 1.

A minha biblioteca: "A bolsa para iniciados" de Fernando Braga de Matos

Em pleno século 21 e com uma velocidade e facilidade de acesso a informação, eu continuo a achar que se estamos a procura de informação em concreto, os livros são a nossa melhor opção.

Aparte de todo o conhecimento empírico que pudemos absorver, conseguimos ainda absorver a experiência de quem o escreve.
Assim, com este primeiro post, vou partilhar alguns livros da minha biblioteca e explicar o que significaram para mim.

O livro “A bolsa para iniciados”, foi a minha primeira introdução ao mercado da bolsa. Como podem ver pela imagem, reli o livro várias vezes, tomei notas, marquei várias passagens.
É o livro que recomendo a todos os amigos e conhecidos que querem começar esta aventura no mercado da bolsa.

Sei que o autor tem outro livro mais avançado, mas ai já preferi ir para “outras praias” escritas em inglês, que partilharei num próximo post.

9 – 13 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
The market is still doing crazy stuff and reacting violently to news and Trump tweets. Because It’s the end of the year I like to reduce all my exposure to the markets. I like to spent my holidays carefree.
That being said. Here is what I am looking at:

SPX
Well It was a weird week. A full round trip no ATH town. Will watch what happens on the red box

USDJPY
JPY Futures look strong. On the daily, it broke out from a falling wedge. On the weekly it closed as a bullish engulf
USDJPY broke down of a rising wedge and is forming a H&S. On the weekly it closed as a bearish Engulf.

Events:
Monday
JPY Final GDP numbers & Economy watchers
EUR Sentix Investors Confidence

Tuesday
JPY Prelim machine orders / BSI Manufacturing Index
EUR Industrial Production numbers / EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
GBP GDP numbers / Manufacturing Production

Wednesday
FOMC
JPY Core Machinery Orders

Thursday
CHF SECO Forecasts
EUR CPI/PPI
US CPI/PPI
JPY Tenkan Index

Friday
US Retail sales