No post this week, I have been having some issues with my internet provider and have a few things to take care of at home this weekend.
I will update my positions and wish you a great week. All the reports will be provided as usual.
Current trades: – $BABA, Still on. – $AAPL, Still on. – $EXXY.MI, Still on. – $RPLA.W, Still on. Great Finance of America earnings. The meeting for this SPAC is set for 25/03/2021 – $CSPX.AS Still on. – $DIS,Still on. – $SXLK, Still on. – $GDXJ.MI, Still on. – $GOLD (Barrick Gold), Still on. – $PLTR,Still on. – $AWK, Still on. – $PEP, Still on. – $BNBEUR Still on. Added more – $AAVEEUR Still on. Added more. – $PRX (Prosus) Still on. – $FILEUR Sold at 45.59 ~+52% – XTZUSD, Still on. – XLMUSD, Still on. – SOLUSDT, Still on. Added more – EURUSD, Started position at 1.18754
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A few posts ago, I remembered the importance of the seasonality in March. It´s usually a period where stocks sell due to tax season.
This last sell-off, I also suspect It was fueled by the need for deleveraging due to the rise of interest rates. It´s now more expensive to have trades open and on margin.
I don´t think is all doom and gloom, but can be a bumpy ride, I will share a special thought below.
Personally, I used the week to do absolutely nothing. I just vegetated and let the market do Its thing.
As fear looms, false investing “Gods” started dumping their SPAC shares on small investors and saw their meme ETFs taking a dive with a regular 5% SP500 drop risking solvency and fund integrity.
Current trades: – $BABA, Still on. – $AAPL, Still on. – $EXXY.MI, Still on. – $RPLA.W, Still on. Great Finance of America earnings. The meeting for this SPAC is set for 25/03/2021 – $CSPX.AS Still on. – $DIS,Still on. – $SXLK, Still on. – $GDXJ.MI, Still on. – $GOLD (Barrick Gold), Still on. – $PLTR,Still on. – $AWK, Still on. – $PEP, Still on. – $BNBEUR Still on. – $AAVEEUR Still on. – $PRX (Prosus) is an EU company, started a position at 100.40€. – $FILEUR started a position at30.16€. – XTZUSD started a position at $3.49. – XLMUSD started a position at $0.41.
Next Week: The most important thing for the next week is the Fed consolidated report for Fed purchases.
Last Friday we saw a bounce across all markets, let´s hope It’s not a dead cat bounce.
The last time something like this happened, we saw the sell-off of tech stocks, and this Nasdaq chart is giving me PTSD. March is also a bad month for the Nasdaq. Nasdaq longs on CoT were also reduced.
I won´t panic or go full buy the dip mode, I will just wait. Patience is one of the most important things to stay solvent, there is a limit of how many dips you can actually buy.
Some SPACs lock-up expirations are coming to an end, so expect more blood on the new meme stocks.
WTI The strength in WTI is amazing, I was expecting to buy a dip on the previous consolidation zone but It is moving fast.
The OPEC+ meeting fuelled up the crude markets.
Last week, I pointed the reference of the negative spreads on BRENT – WTI. The last time it happened the WTI prices skyrocketed, well 2/2 for the year.
I hope I can find a level to buy WTI next week. It´s starting to look very interesting. It closed above the big down trend line. I will look for a retest of the $62 level and place a bid.
Gold The pain on this one. I am very bullish on gold and this dip is a buying opportunity. The tricky part here is how far can the dip go. The $1680 level sounds like a possible bottom. The last close was a beautiful pinbar. On a close above $1724.50, I will consider starting placing bids.
SP500 The chart looks horrible. Last Fridays can be one of two things: – a clear reversal and an uptrend continuation – a retest of the breakdown level
I believe It´s the second, we will see further downside next week. It´s not the end, It´s not a recession, It´s “normal”. A lot of new investors have never experienced this kind of pain, and the moves will probably be exponential with people running for the hills.
Patience is your best friend here. You really don’t want to be the first to dive in.
DXY Was strong all week but end up fading on Friday’s close. The 92 level is key for DXY. Every rejection should be a buy on EURUSD. A clean close above 92, might be scary for stocks, commodities, and some FX pairs.
EURUSD This is the level (green box) I am looking at, this only enters in play If DXY fails the 92 level.
Bitcoin Last week’s analysis still stands valid. I am a bull long term, short term the 40k level seem like a magnet. The other option is to keep following the purple trendline. The 0.38 Fibonacci is providing to be strong support.
Arconic I tend to use http://www.openinsider.com/ a lot and check for insider buying activity. Last week four c-level / directors bought stock and this got me thinking.
Biden has been promising a new infrastructure bill, and If this happens, Arconic is probably one of the gainers.
It produces light metals focusing on high ESG levels.
The stock is at an “ok” level, so insiders were not buying the dip. They are probably planing for something. Keep it on your radar.
About the Diamon coin project, I referred to last week. For me It´s a bag of empty air, If they can deliver on the things they promise, It might be tempting, for now, It’s just on the watchlist.
Current trades: – $BABA, Still on. – $AAPL, Still on. Added more shares @128.80. – $EXXY.MI, Still on. – $RPLA.W, Still on. Reporting earnings on 02/03/2021. The meeting for this SPAC is set for 25/03/2021 – $CSPX.AS, Still on. – $DIS,Still on. – $SXLK, Still on. – $GDXJ.MI, Still on. – $GOLD (Barrick Gold), Still on. I am diamond hands on this and GDXJ. Barrick is finally debt-free, “zero” debt, and $3B of FCF. Barrick also is one of the major copper and gold miners out there. – $LVO.MI sold all @4.95 – $PLTR, started a position around $29.14 – $AWK, started a position around $146. A major player in the water industry, the 4th biggest constituent of $XLP. – $PEP, started a position around $130.50. – $BNBEUR @203 and @172.85 – $AAVEEUR @313
Next Week: The new stimulus bill was passed on the house. My predictions are irrelevant because who knows what will happen.
Markets can dump on the news or can rally on hopes of new stimulus checks.
One thing to be aware of is that if the yields keep on rising, gold probably will dump more or gold can rally on the massive money printing.
So, no one, knows what the hell is going to happen.
I won´t play any earnings this week. I will be watching out of curiosity: – FuboTV – box – NIO – Slack
WTI The run was stopped on the long-term trend line.
On the daily chart, I would like to see some further consolidation. Last week, I wrote about a retest on the previous consolidation zone. This zone coincides with the 50DMA which has historical precedence for being a bounce area.
One interesting thing that also happened last week, the Brent – WTI spreads went negative. The last time this happened, WTI started an incredible run.
Gold There’s blood everywhere on the gold street, miners, ETFs, futures, etc no one was safe this week.
Things do look bad, the chart looks horrible and the yields rising situation isn’t helping at all.
The only lifeboat for gold right now is a flight to safety from the massive money printing to come.
Futures premiums are now back to normal. There are no crazy gaps.
One final consideration, the next two months, March and April are not very friendly to gold historically.
SP500 More blood.
I am buying the dip or whatever the dip means, -10% or 20%.
The environment for stocks is very accommodating, and no major banks or hedge funds seem to be worried. Even our boy JPown is wearing his bull hat.
Technically SP500 is still inside the trend and near the 50DMA which is proven to be a bouncing area.
Another asset I am adding to the watchlist this week is the AUDJPY FX pair. AUDJPY correlates positively with SP500 and may provide an early signal for trend reversal as it trades 24/5.
DXY Two important things to have in consideration.
Despite the DXY had broken the trend, It remained sideways. The 91 level resistance is proving to be super strong and hard to break.
The massive money printing on the US, wont help the DXY bull case as there will be plenty of dollars in the market.
A bearish dollar can be very good for gold and stocks.
Bitcoin Despite all panic and despair, I think this won’t be the end.
The risk appetite is still pretty much on and I risk to say, this time it will be different.
We are starting to see a lot of “big boys” getting involved with crypto. A lot of big buys are entering the markets and retail is still game on.
Technically, the 41k – 40k level seems to be the demand zone.
US20Y / TLT I am trying to find a position to go long TLT via DTLA ( TLT but UCTIS).
TLT dropped considerably but the unknown and uncertainty remain about how the bond market will behave with the new $1.9T stimulus.
At $134 It would be a bid for me. Let´s see how this will play out.
From last week: Last week was the culmination of an idea I have been trying to implement for a while.
I used to trade daily / weekly for scalps and small swings. This took me a lot of time, I usually spent all my days looking into dozens of charts and I had almost no free time.
I want to have more time to read and learn new stuff, I want to research new markets and to be able to provide better content and insights. I also want to pursue other ventures and generate other streams of income.
What this actually means, I will keep trading stocks, but with different time horizons Not weeks, but months/years. I will dollar cost average more and try to be an investor instead of a trader.
I will trade some stuff here and there, but I am trying to shift all my active portfolio positions for a bigger time frame.
This rushed decision, to switch instantly instead of phasing it out was made because this week I failed a lot of plays I had lined up. Things such as $NVG, $MOS, $FTTUSDT, $AAEVEUSDT by pure distraction or being focused on the wrong thing.
What does this mean for the weekly preparation post? I hope this means better content. I will still provide my insights and try to mix it up with new stuff I learned, and possible new streams of income I am pursuing.
Current trades: – $BABA, Still on. – $AAPL, Still on. Added more shares @128.80. – $EXXY.MI, Still on. – $RPLA.W, Still on. The meeting for this SPAC is set for 25/03/2021 – $CSPX.AS, Still on. – $DIS,Still on. – $SXLK, Still on. – $GDXJ.MI, Still on. – $GOLD (Barrick Gold), Still on. I am diamond hands on this and GDXJ. Barrick is finally debt-free, “zero” debt, and $3B of FCF. Barrick also is one of the major copper and gold miners out there. – $LVO.MI, Still on. I will talk more about VIX below. – $PLTR, Started a position around $29.14 – $BNBUSDT, Bought @130.51 USDT. Sold all my BNB @313 – $XTZEUR, Bought @3.88 – Sold @4.026. The setup turned and had a huge rejection on resistance. – $UMAEUR, Bought @ 21.845 – Sold @21.957. Failed to break above resistance and 50DMA on 4h chart. – $XLMEUR, Sold all my positions @0.4141
Next Week: Markets are just insane. The Fed with JPow and Janet on the US Treasury will keep supporting the movement up.
At this point, I think we look very toppy. I will talk more about SP500 below. We have a craze across meme stocks, crypto, and speculative assets such as pokemon or MTG cards. Even my wine collection base prices went through the roof.
I would like to see consolidation across all markets. We need to breathe and shake off a few paper hands in order to build a base for the next leg up.
I am not playing any earnings, but I will curiously be watching: – Redfin due to possible $RPLA SPAC correlation – ESTY – Nikola – Draft Kings – Square due to BTC correlation
WTI What’s a small 5% drop after this WTI run, nothing. The inventories have been massively drawing down and the Texas power shortage is helping to sustain these prices. Some refineries even closed down. I am not trading WTI, although If a retest of the previous consolidation zone (Orange box) is made, I will think about going long.
One thing to have in consideration, WTI spreads are still very high.
Gold It´s no news that I like gold, and I have to admit that this dump got me a little scared about the gold future. Last week I pointed $1760 was a line in the sand to make it or break it and gold managed to hold it.
The rising Yields, the uncertainty, and the market mood where risk assets are the best assets are drawing a lot of money of gold. The silvering is that this mood can´t last forever and as we got dumped, we shall rise.
SP500 I can rant about how toppy this is, but I won’t, for my own sanity. The sentiment is very accommodative, and the market will keep going up. This being said, the chart is toppy and a small consolidation would help the markets to move forward faster and on solid ground.
A drop to 3850 would be a nice place to start placing a few bids.
One thing to bear in mind, we are starting the tax season and people might sell a few gainers to cover some losers.
PLTR Why I bought Palantir? Palantir is poised to be the big player in data. The huge contracts with governments and public companies are making Palantir the go-to company for data insights.
On the earnings, Palantir presented +50% growth YoY for clients and revenue.
I know this may sound crazy, I do think Palantir can be within 3 digits in a few years.
VIX The VIX is like the silent killer waiting to jump in. The CoT shows an increment of VIX long positions across the board. The last VIX peaks, also happened when SP500 was moving up and sideways for a few weeks, which is what is happening right now.
I am not saying the market will dump hard, I am saying that the signals are here for a spike on the VIX. This can correlate with the market correction I am looking forward.
Bitcoin Last week I have been reducing all my altcoin exposure, I mainly hold ETH, BTC, and LTC. Bitcoin is stretched and I want to be in a position to instantly liquidate everything. This last bitcoin push pumped alts to insane profits. It´s never wrong to pull profits, even If you miss on some.
RSI > 80 and the MACD seems to be forming a bear MACD signal. I would like a retest of the green box which coincides with de 50DMA.
The 50DMA is very important in this trend because almost all coins that are rallying are bouncing on the 50DMA.
I know this is a steep decline, but I think if we move down, the movement will have a massive acceleration.
GEX is almost negative. When GEX is low, it acts as an accelerator to market movements.
DSI is at highs.
Insiders keep on selling hard.
The US10Y is flirting with mean reversions.
One of the things I want to have more time is to research projects and ideas. This week I will look into, Certified Diamond Coin. They want to tokenize de diamond markets. I will let you know my final thoughts. https://cdiamondcoin.com/
Special notes on: – EUR German Ifo / GFK Consumer Climate / German GDP / Durable goods – USD Fed JPow testifies / CB Consumer Index / Richmond Man. Index / Jobs data / Chicago PMI – JPY Toky CPI / Retail Sales – GBP Unemployment rate
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From last week: SP500 went sideways all week and resolved to finish strong last Friday. Earnings are on a tear, all the big companies reporting are showing a good quarter.
Trump got acquitted. I really don´t know what impacts this will have.
Remember that markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. I actively trade a small portion of my portfolio. I contribute to my long term portfolio in all market conditions. Bull or bear markets don’t matter for the long term. If the market corrects sometimes I also add more than programed.
Current trades: – $BABA, showed some strength this week. – $AAPL, It´s sleeping. Technically is still on an uptrend, If dips I will ad more. – $EXXY.MI, doing great, the recent dollar bump helps it to correct a little. – $RPLA.W, this is news-driven trade. It´s an exercise of patience. – $CSPX.AS, It´s fine, Its and sp500 tracker. – $DIS, awesome streaming numbers as I supposed, earnings were a success. Still holding. – $SXLK, meh, It´s going. -$GDXJ.MI, doing crappy as it is gold. -$GOLD (Barrick Gold), surprisingly Its holding better than expected. -$LVO.MI, had a 1/4 size position on LVO, despite the VIX close last Friday I am expecting some volatility ahead.
Just to clarity, the ideas I share are not 100% trades I will make. They are ideas, in order to materialize a certain amount of things must happen and the market should move in support.
Remember, markets are an exercise of patience. Don´t rush into things, play your plan and relax. There’s plenty of fish in the sea.
Focus on the long haul, try to ignore the current market noise.
Next Week: Next Monday markets are closed on the US.
Palantir – This can be a big company in the future, but playing $PLTR earnings is like playing with fire. I would like a dip in the green box. If so I will start making a position.
Shopify – $SHOP will probably tare on earnings
Tilray – $TLRY after the pump and dump from last week, I will expect more dump on earnings. Tilray is probably the best weed company out there. I will consider starting a position around $10.
Barrick Gold and Newmont – $GOLD and $NEM will kick of the miner’s earnings. I expect good earnings because of the recent gold prices, demand for semiconductors, and demand for gold bullion.
WTI $WTI is in a super bull trend. I don´t understand it, I believe it will go $60 or above just because of the market structure. Inventories are having huge drawdowns for 3 weeks straight.
Gold Gold is currently trapped in this range. This can be very dangerous for Gold if it doesn’t manage to move past the current pink trendline. Another thing to have in consideration is how the psychological level of $1800 is important on this current market structure. A failure to hold this level, the next to watch is $1760 Despite holding miners, I won’t buy any gold here due to uncertainty.
SP500 We are at a crossroads. If we break this level the road to 4000 is straight ahead, if this level is rejected and sp500 revisits 3800. I would prefer a revisit of 3800 to load up on a few more shares. Bear in mind, tax season is coming and this usually causes a market sell-off.
Endesa / Iberdrola Both companies had a crappy trading week. The order books are also thin and they both report earnings on 24/02/2021.
The one presenting the better structure clearly is Endesa.
The Navigator Group It´s still trading inside the box, only a clear break above the box can trigger a buy signal.
One thing to have in consideration, pulp price have been increasing.
APPLE The chart structure is holding strong. A strong bounce here can make $AAPL revisit the ATH, a break can make Apple retest $120. If it dips, I will add more.
Bitcoin What a rally! The road ahead seems to be green, I would like further consolidation of this level and a retest of $44k. This would allow the market to breathe and a buy the dip opportunity across crypto assets.
Special notes on: – EUR Flash GDP / ZEW – USD Empire State Man. Index / Retail Sales / Industrial production / NAHB / Philly Fed Man. Index / Unemployment claims – JPY Industrial production / Tertiary industry activity / Core machinery orders – World Flash PMIs
From last week: Markets keep on proving that they are a patience game. As Warren Buffet says, “It´s a transfer of money from the impatient to the patient”. For the last few months, the markets keep on going parabolic. Stocks and crypto are having huge returns and everyone is making money.
I am afraid this will keep on going for a few more months, even if we correct 15% -20%. The bull won´t die.
It´s very important to journal the experience in these market conditions, the stress peaks, the euphoria, and the mood swings are constant and will for sure influence our mind when making trading decisions.
Always remember, there are more tides than sailors, and weak hands are green hands.
Current trades: – $BABA, huge earnings, and zero impact on the stock price. I Will probably add a few more shares – $AAPL, same thing as $BABA. I Will probably add more shares. – $AG, sold the bag for ~120% returns. (Thanks WSB?). I still believe in the company, I will look into buying again at ~$10. – $EXXY.MI doing great, more about commodities below. – $RPLA.W, this is news-driven trade. It´s an exercise of patience. – $CSPX.AS, doing great too. – $DIS, doing great, with earnings this week, more below. – $SXLK, I have to admit I was expecting this trade to be doing a little better, currently + 4% – GOLD CFD, against my own bias, and last week’s post I longed GOLD CFD. And of course, it went to shit. I even violated my own trading rules. It was a very dumb trade, lost about ~1%. -$GDXJ.MI, doing fine. -$GOLD (Barrick Gold), added more shares. -$BTCDOWN 0.1657 -0.1920 for ~+16%
It was a nice week, the only regret was the GOLD CFD long, not because of the loss, but because I traded against myself and violated my trading rules.
More earnings: -$DIS, I am expecting very strong number on Disney´s streaming services. And I am long based on that. -$COTY, I was going to play COTY, but it already broke out ahead of earnings. Let´s see if it retests the breakout before earnings. Apart from the bullish setup, I believe COTY business is ballooning with all the new Instagram, tik tok, and influencers buying plastic faces during the quarantine.
-$TWTR, I won’t play Twitter´s earnings but I will watch the aftermath. If Twitter repeats last earnings, This can be a good opportunity for a swing trade.
Again, trading It´s an exercise of patience. You should rather miss the train than hurt yourself by trying to catch it.
I am also exploring other markets. US stocks are very expensive, and there are a few gems outside the US for long term plays / quick swings.
This week my eyes are on Endesa and Iberdrola. These two Spanish energy companies are responsible for ~40% of all electricity sold in Spain. Both companies look bullish, and with massive quarantines in effect in Europe plus the cold from the last few months, should provide strong earnings opportunities.
I am also looking into $NVG, The Navigator Group, a Portuguese company and one of the biggest paper paste producers in Europe. The setup, if It breaks out can be very bullish.
WTI Last week I wrote about the range trade, and $WTI just went parabolic. This price action opens the path to $60. I am on the sidelines.
Gold Despite my dumb trade last week, the gold prices are holding and the dollar retreated heavily. I am still very bullish on gold, I feel It´s not yet the time for a major green candle, but my objective is to have all the positions and wait for it, patiently. The close above the 250DMA was very important, proved that the price is supported to stay above $1800.
On the weekly, Gold held aboce the cloud like a champ.
SP500 The road to 4000 is taking shape. There’s, not much to say. As long as the Fed keeps on supporting the markets, the only way It´s up.
CRB index broke out last week, we are officially in a new commodities bull market. The train is leaving and the dollar is helping a lot.
The Stocks / Commodities ratio also broke out and the upside seems astonishing.
From last week: What a long week, the madness with meme stocks and bitcoin twits drove me a little insane.
As a resolution for 2021, I decided to port my journal to analog, I have a notebook where I write all my stuff. I forced myself to add a few more fields and not being a journal entirely about trade. I started tracking: Sleep: I have to sleep at least 8h with 1:30h of deep sleep Food: Eat healthily Workout: At least 3 times a week (failing miserably) Stress: Average daily 50 stress (1-200) BPM: Average beats per minute
I am going out on a limb that this will help me taking care of myself and my mental state.
Why I am sharing this? Last week my stress levels were off the charts, I felt sick and super tired all the time. Check the week log.
It reached 128. This is not healthy at all. If you are experiencing something similar try to find a way to fix it. I am open to suggestions on how to handle it too.
Trading wise: New active trades. – CSPX.AS average ~312€ – $DIS Disney average ~$166.88 – $EXXY.MI average ~16.80€ – SP500 CFD bought @3754.7 and closed for +10 points per contract – Binance BTCDOWN @0.2833 +~25% | @0.1944 +~15% – Binance BNBUP @28 +~24% I also tried a few trades on XRPDOWN and BTCUP this weekend that failed. The tokens weren’t moving, ended up losing a few bucks.
Last week I shared a link for a Portuguese discord where I am hanging out. I have been calling all trades and ideas there as a new sharing is caring mindset.
Next Week: It will be a tough week, we will have more meme stocks rallies, brokers shenanigans, more earnings, probably news about US stimulus, and more drama with covid19 vaccines.
I will be extremely cautious this week due to the broker’s drama, I want to watch Sundays open and Monday’s US open before committing to something.
The meme stocks, I don´t touch them, my trading rules don’t allow me to trade them and I personally don´t want to trade them, the amount of stress would mess me up.
Earnings, looking at $PFE, $BABA, $SPOT, $PYPL. Expecting beats on earnings and $BABA will be probably my focus play.
WTI $WTI keeps on trading below the pressure zone in a consolidation pattern. The last time $WTI did that, It ranged for 140 days!!! I would thread with care on $WTI, despite the inventories drawing down, nothing much changed fundamentally wise. I will keep being on the sidelines.
Gold Last Friday we had a spark of hope on the breakout, but It didn´t hold. WSB is trying to pump silver and gold can shine as a proxy, but I won’t keep my hopes up. Gold has a place in this environment, and the idea here is to keep on adding to miners and gold despite the current “mood”. The dollar is also showing some strength and If the market corrects a little lower, the $DXY can go to 90-94 which will bring $Gold down.
Last Friday’s close printed a nasty candle and a rejection of a trendline. The green zone on the chart is clearly in play, keep also an eye on $1800 which is the 250DMA.
$GVZ, $GLD and $GDX are both on “ok” levels which we might read as stability on the gold market.
SP500 I might partake in the theory that this sell-off had as origin the need to sell winners to buy meme stocks or cover margins. Fundamentals keep being super bullish, and Jerome Powell’s speech keeps supporting the markets.
We are at 50DMA and the support is holding.
The ~53% constituents being below 50DMA supports the theory of selling winners.
What I am looking this week: $MOS (Mosaic) reports earnings on 17/02/2021 and DAP prices are through the roof. It might present a really nice opportunity.
I would like a buy between the green box, lets see if it possible.
$AAPL (Apple) depending on how the US market open, this can be a great opportunity to buy apple. I will wait, I would like to buy at $110, but I doubt It will happen. Probably We will se a bounce here.
$SAP (SAP software stock) I am a programmer and in the IT space, everyone knows SAP. It´s one of the major software in big companies. I think this fear is all misplaced and this is an opportunity to buy. The green box would be the dream buy zone, spot price isn’t that bad either.
$BABA (Alibaba) I have a ton of mix feeling about Chinese ADRs but, $BABA does look nice here for earnings on 30/02/2021.
$BAYN.DE (Bayer) Let’s be honest, Bayer isn´t going anywhere despite the rough patch they have been through. The Monsanto lawsuit was settled for $11b, I think all this news are priced in and the company is set to shine. It can be a bumpy ride but I think the returns here can be substantial.
From last week: JB took the seat as the US president and markets reached new ATH. There’s not much to say, as earnings made stocks soar and everyone and their mother are making money in stocks.
Position wise: – As I shared on Twitter, I closed my long GOLD CFD. – I am still holding $AG, $GOLD, $GDXJ.MI – Add a new SUPER speculative position on BTCDOWNUSDT, It’s a Binance leveraged token. – Added a new position as a YOLO. I recently joined a Portuguese discord server for investments, I am a big advocate of financial literacy and this server is focused on that. One of the admins “Ações dividendos” is making a lot of research on spacs and referred me to $RPLA, which I bought warrants $RPLA.W. If you are interested in joining the community, here is the link to the discord server, https://discord.gg/BkRRBWdJG2
Apart from the assets I trade actively, I also did my monthly addition to my long term (retirement) portfolio. It´s a simples 80-20 portfolio (80 stocks – 20 bonds) with 4 assets.
All dividends are also reinvested. Despite market conditions you should always have a long-term plan, overtime markets will go up. Just do your monthly additions to your retirement portfolio, and use trading to generate extra alpha.
Next Week: More earnings, will keep an eye on: $MSFT, $AMD, $AAPL, $TSLA, $BA, $T, $VZ and $TEAM
Actively looking for next week: – Gold futures / CFDs – Looking into adding to my miners positions and possibly add $PAAS – Calls for $MSFT earnings If they are nicely priced. – Let’s see if I finally manage to find a good buy on $LVO.MI
WTI Last week, I shared the double top setup currently happening on $WTI. The setup seems to be happening but very slowly. I believe that commodities are being hugely impacted by the dollar. This dollar weakness is giving $WTI a lot of resistance to go down.
Fundamentally, inventories built a lot this week and the demand is stalled. I have been sharing since covid stopped the world that I am bearish on crude. If the price keeps going against my bias, I kept being proved wrong and I shouldn´t trade it. I will wait until I have a clear view.
Another thing to have in consideration is this news:
If this is in fact true, this can be a huge catalyst for crude prices, probably to go up.
Gold Gold is at a standstill like a good old western.
The pink trend line is acting as a huge barrier to the upside. The orange box is my entry zone if this channel breaks up. A lot of this is also related to the recent strength of the dollar.
SP500 I won’t make again the arguments that this puppy is far ahead of the real economy. I will focus on pure technicals. SP500 is trading inside a huge channel that puts 4200 in play. This is a huge gap up.
Dollar One of the most used proxies to watch dollar movements is the $DXY. This pink trend line to de downside is huge and the dollar is bearish until it breaks it.
Last week and despite all the stimulus talks in the US, the dollar held strong and didn’t dump a bit. The shorts keep on stacking according to the CoT, but the tape doesn’t reflect it. We can see a big short squeeze before further downside. This will drag down assets such as commodities and stocks, especially Gold.
From last week: The third week in for 2021 and another crazy week in the world. In a new round of lockdowns, Trump will be impeached, stocks keep on pumping, Biden announced a new $2T stimulus bill, USD keeps on getting crushed, Gold had a meltdown and I made zero trades.
On a more personal note: I was talking with a friend that trades/invest too, and we were comparing our 2020 returns.
He likes all the bright and shiny stock memes, $AMD, $TSLA, all the space and pot stocks you can throw at him.
I am a little bit more conservative, I like solid companies, and sectors. I rarely pick specific stocks to go all in and all my YOLOs are in $BTC and $ETH. Most of my long term holdings are ETFs and the portfolio spare cash is on TIPS.
To be fair, he outperformed me by ~11% but putting things in perspective, he is always stressed with the market and despairs with 2% moves. I am pretty comfortable leaving 11% on the table to have a good night’s sleep.
Why all of this? To explain that we should always use the market to help us with our objectives. We cannot be slaves of the market.
Position wise: Zero trades were made, all positions remain the same. I am getting dunked on Gold, need to evaluate. More below.
Next Week: More earnings:
Eyeing at $BAC, $GS, $NFLX and $INTC
Later next week, we will have a lot of Flash PMIs, be aware that bad numbers may influence the FX market/futures. We are also seeing a lot of new lockdowns and unemployment rates rising.
The edge between the stock market and the real economy is widening.
WTI Last week, I talked about this possible double top setup. It´s not yet a big confirmed rejection but…
My bias is still bearish, despite the market keep proving me wrong. As my bias cannot be changed by the market arguments, and I don’t want to lose money, I am not trading WTI.
The recent data is actually pretty bullish, we have OPEC cuts, inventories keep drawing down, and the dollar dying is helping the price to stay up.
One thing to keep and eye is the SPX/CRB ratio(stocks to commodities). If this weekly setup plays out, this can drive crude prices higher.
The futures spreads are saying the current price is ahead of the future, which for me clearly says, low demand.
Gold Bloody week, I am currently ok with the state of my positions, the only one I am cautious about is the recent dd @$1815. I will see how the market opens. Gold can certainly dip below $1800, for me, It´s only an opportunity to buy more. Call me crazy and I can totally be wrong, but the dollar debasement is here to stay, and I am ready to play the long game.
This is a very ugly chart, on the bright side, we are still above the 255DMA (Purple line). Things sustaining the gold bulls: – Dollar debasement – Real rates (US Yields – US inflation) are all negative. – Despite all the blood, the bull sentiment persists and the flows support this.
GLD and GDX are flirting with their 365 trading days mean reversion.
SP500 There’s not much I can say about this apart from how ridiculous this chart looks like.
I am keeping an eye on the moving averages global as a sign of weakness on the index. These week, we had a substancial increase on the constituents below their 30DMA.
Volatility Finally looks like we are going to start to have some fun. Vol is looking nice to start a position here. Why: CTAs SKEW short equity trigger triggered twice.
VIX futures are finally trading at a positive spread.
SP500 seasonality helps supporting a short term bearish view.
I will start looking into creating a position on $LVO.MI
From the last YEAR: A lot had happened last year, covid, Brexit, Hong Kong – China situation, negative oil prices, Trump going full bananas, pick your poison.
For me, It was a profitable trading year, but who doesn’t make money on bull markets?!
As a new year starts, before diving in and share what I am holding, I would like to share my final thoughts and considerations, what I have learned.
– Patience, as a trader or investor we are always eager to see that green P&L, sometimes things don’t happen on our timeframe, but they do happen. Wait for the trade to come to you and don’t rush. There are more tides than sailors.
– People are just dumb, everyone and their mother are traders now. If you recently joined the markets, You might be thinking this is easy. It is not. Trading is the hardest way to make easy money. When things return to normalcy, and they will. Be prepared for a chock in returns.
– Comum sense, one of the most underrated things in the world. I understand the appeal of stocks such as TSLA, the returns have been massive and I understand why people hold/trade them. What I don’t understand is the cult behind Elon Musk. History proved times and times that this kind of cult, such as Enron, Theranos, Madoff, etc is very dangerous.
– Don´t be greedy, profits are profits. Only a few people in the world traded their way to be millionaires. Set your goals and use the market as a shortcut to achieve them.
Update from December positions: – The positions on gun stocks $SWBI and $RGR paid big money. +45% on $SWBI and +20% on $RGR. PATIENCE! after waiting 1 month for them to move, they completed the movement in two days.
– Holding $AG, $GDXJ.MI and bought $GOLD(Barrick Gold), $AG is still green, but $GOLD is a bit underwater. Still long GOLD CFD too.
I don´t like to have a lot of positions or trade heavily, I like to build sizable positions on specific bets. Let´s see how they carry to 2021.
Next Week: Earnings bonanza again.
I will only be watching banks, want to see how they fared during this last quarter.
WTI My bias on WTI is still the same, lack of demand should drive prices lower. As the price is proving me wrong over and over, I am staying out of it. Things to have in consideration: Approaching hard resistance of $54
Current month contracts are still trading at a premium for #6 and #12. That’s why I am still holding to my lack of demand bias.
Inventories keep somehow drawing down, production cuts are helping.
Gold Last week was brutal, the all metals comp got destroyed. I am still holding and building positions in the sector. Especially miners. Now, about Gold: I know the chart looks confusing so let’s break it down. – Gold is bouncing on the 200DMA pink line – And it’s forming what looks like an inverted head and shoulders. This is supporting a possible support zone and bullish case.
This zone can act as a support. The volume is there.
Finally the premium closed on the #6 and #12 futures contract.
SP500 Just pure insanity, despite all the bad stuff happening, the market, is still roaring. No point fighting it.
A few more charts:
What I am looking for in early 2021
Shipping: Yup, tankers again. When things return to possible normalcy, tankers will be needed to transport all that crude to power up factories and the return to normal.
Cargo ships, emerging markets like China, are returning to normality and the demand for coal is roaring.
Stocks: $SHIP, $TNK, $STNG, $EURN
Tech: Not traditional tech but tech that provides experiences. Specially VR and AR.
Commodities + Agriculture + Food and Water: As the dollar insists on dying, there’s no better play than commodities.
Stocks: $EXXY.DE, $AVO, $VIE, $TSN, $BAYN.DE
Volatility: If you follow the blog for some time, you know I love volatility and my go-to bad boy is $LVO.MI.
Bitcoin and Etherum: If you don’t have 5% of your portfolio in BTC and ETH you are missing out big time. Use major sell-off to buy more. Cryptos are here to stay, expect all the weird shitcoins.
FX: EURCAD – Very beautiful cup and handle on the weekly chart.
EURGBP – Take advantage of the perpetual range. Trade it wisely.
Emerging markets: With USD being attacked by the big bear, EMs are rising and shining. Stocks: $IEMB.MI, $EIMI.MI (European ETFs)
Other Notes Sentiment is super bullish
Insiders keep selling their bags on every rally.
Interesting Articles The most exciting news for European investors, vanguard brought their Life Strategy ETFs across the ocean. Quoted in EUR and Accumulation. The ETFs are already available on interactive brokers.
Special notes on: – EUR Lagardspeaks / Industrial production – USD Jolts Jobs / CPI / Unemployment claims / Empire state manufacturing index / Industrial production – JPY Economic Watchers Sentiment / Core machinery orders