1 – 5 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
Things are improving on the mental side. I was able to keep focus and get stuff done.
It was definitely the right move to get back to what I usually do. Trading my plans and looking ahead for next moves.
I managed to fix my algo bug, this is also good for you if you use the free signals
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

Last week plays are doing nicely AG, Air France (got stopped at 4.13€ with profit), Lufthansa really great pumps.
I am raising the stoploss for a nice and safe cushion, profits are profits and this market have crazy swings.

TNK and STNG are also doing good, despite on the last two trading days they retraced a bit on a big Oil move. Stops are in place above entry point , not really worried.
I will talk more about the positions below.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Looks like SP500 doesn’t want to go down. It´s pointless to fight it
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, It makes sense for gold to go down while SP500 goes higher.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
This week is going to be insane! A lot of economic data coming through and more earnings.
On the earnings side, I will keep an eye on Zoom, American Eagle and Slack.

Earnings 1 June 2020

This week EUR, AUD and CAD have cash rates decisions , World Manufacturing / Services PMIs. China already reported this Sunday with a miss 50.6 on Man. PMI.

Be prepared for a lot of action and crazy swings.

Crude
A hell of a move. Really strong close on Friday, I wasn’t expecting it at all, to be fair I was expecting WTI to roll over on rejection of $28.64 as resistance and 30dMR.
If WTI manages to close above $30.60 this can be really bullish for WTI.
As per the other weeks, I am not trading crude because Its really hard to read the action for me at the moment. I don’t have a clear view of whats going to happen. On a side note, inventories increased, again despite all the production cuts.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly chart
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The sentiment is very gold bullish, but I think momentum is escaping the gold markets and going back to equities. To be fair, gold needs a retrace too. It´s an opportunity to buy more.
Gold rejected the retest on the breakdown line, seems to be forming a classic rising wedge pattern. I am not trading the downside, but I am looking to buy the upside, preferably on the green box.

Oanda Gold GFD daily & weekly

One thing I like to watch too are mean reversion lines, normal mean and geometric mean. They provide very consistent information about trend and possible extend moves. I use them in various timeframes but I found best results with 5+ years or last 365 days.
On gold for the last 365 days chart we are retesting the breakdown of the mean reversion lines. Which in my opinion supports the downside.

TANOS Ticker plots – Gold

On a very special note, this week can be a very volatile market for gold and silver with 3 very important cash rate decisions.

Silver
I don’t usually talk about silver and as an European, investing in silver doesn’t bring me much benefits.
But this recent moves on the market are making me very interested in trading silver as a commodity and silver miners (already playing AG).
Silver had gold crosses across a bunch of pairs. Will look for a pull back to add a position.

EMA Scanner for silver
Oanda CFD Silver daily & weekly

SP500
It definitely wants to retest at least ~3100.
It´s really a challenge to predict where the spuz will go, a lot of forces are pushing it to go higher and higher despite the world economy is crashing and burning. The level to watch is ~2964 the high of 09 march 2020 for downside and and a clean and close break above 3100.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily & weekly

On a side note, I like to watch trading ranges and the 3000 points zone is clearly a line in the sand for the spuz.

TANOS Ticker Plots – ES1

SP500 is also testing the 365 days mean reversion lines.

TANOS Ticker Plots – ES1

Airlines
Despite getting stopped on Air France, I will look into getting back in.
The market mood and the abundance of money in the EU to bailout everyone will pump it again.
Lufthansa, still strong. The stop is at ~8.38€. The fail to close above 9.340€ is a little bit worrying but I will evaluate more on Monday´s market open.

Air France KLM & Lufthansa

Shipping
Being highly correlated with crude, in order to hold this stocks you need “strong hands”. I believe crude is overvalued and this stocks will shine in the near future. Both have impeccable books and are profitable. It´s just a matter of time. Both their trends are still up, If the trend is not broken, the path with least resistance is still up.

Scorpio and Teekay daily charts

CAD & AUD
Last week DXY got destroyed and AUD and CAD pairs raised and shinned all week.
This week both CAD and AUD will decide cash rates and a lot of volatility can be brought to the FX market. If DXY holds 98 CAD and AUD pairs should loose their momentum.

DXY daily chart

CAD and AUD currency indexes are rejecting their strong resistances supporting the DXY theory.

AUD and CAD currency indexes daily

AUDUSD looking like a nice double top( bear pattern, short) and USDCAD looking like a sweet falling wedge (bull pattern, long) and hold the trend line which is very important here.

AUDUSD & USDCAD daily charts

As I have been saying, I am trying to play CAD and AUD VS JPY in correlation to SP500. SP500 being on a raging bull move, this idea is kind of shelved until SP500 supports the theory. The play at the moment is clearly vs USD if the signals work.

AUDJPY and CADJPY daily charts

TSLA
This a very speculative trade. I dont intend to take a position on TSLA, but I think the market will correlate the success of the Space X launch with Tesla and pump the stock. It may retest the 869 resistence, if it goes to ATH is just nuts.

Tesla daily chart
TANOS TIcker Plot – TSLA

Another Notes

Sentiment in American markets are returning to bull mode as Europe is getting bearish

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment

Insiders transactions, more selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

BTCUSD, if this continuation pattern brakes up, It´s big if true

BTCUSD Coinbase

Interesting Articles

In gold we trust 2020 report:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Compact-Version-english.pdf

New series of Grant Williams hummminars.
https://ttmygh.com/hmmminars/

Events:
Monday
JPY – Man. PMI
EUR – Man. PMI
GBP – Man. PMI
CAD – Man. PMI
USD – Man. PMI / ISM Man. PMI

Tuesday
AUD – Cash Rates
CHF – Man. PMI

Wednesday
AUD – GDP
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – Germnay Unemployment
GBP – Services PMI
EUR – Unemployment rate
USD – Non – Farm employment changes / Services PMI / ISM Non Man. PMI / Factory orders
CAD – Cash Rates

Thursday
AUD – Restail sales / AIG Services
EUR – Services PMI
GBP – Construction PMI
EUR – Cash Rates
USD – Unemplyment claims

Friday
GBP – Gfk consumer sentiment
EUR – Germany factory orders
CAD – Jobs data
USD – Jobs data

25 – 29 May 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
I just had an horrible trading week,I have been having a lot of trouble keeping focused and being patient.
That made me mismanage all my trades, bad stop placement, bad risk management, bad entries. You name the error, I made it.
My AUDJPY short got stopped with a loss, the gold long scalp got stopped for a small profit.
Tried to revenge trade a short scalp STOXX50 with a very poor entry which I magically found a way to mismanage too.
I have been super stressed all week and obsessed with trading.
To salt my wound even more I found a major bug on one of my algos.

I am still a little bit frustrated with my mistakes, simply because I know better.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Looks like SP500 doesn’t want to go down. The Powell printing press is life supporting it.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    I though I was wrong on this. But maybe, just maybe, I am right. Will explain more below.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Mainly grains, are having a bad time. Still a wait and see game.

Next Week:
A lot of work to do this week, mainly focused on getting back on track.
Will stop day trading. It´s not my trading style, I need to get back to my roots.

Will have to sort out how to fix the bug, that still is an issue. The algo is stopped at the moment.

Need to start exercising again, the brain and the body go hand in hand.

Will take my time and align myself with what works for me.

That being said, markets never stop and I am keeping an eye on a watch list.
Things are getting interesting in some sectors, and the alligator mode is ON.

CRUDE

It´s still a no mans land. No one have a clue on whats next. It´s true crude has been rallying but the demand is still very weak. Technically It´s on a big cross roads. For me is a wait and see game. Let´s see how the triangle breaks. Inventories started to drawdown which may help the bull case.

Oanda WTI CFD Daily / Weekly
TANOS Market Gauge Crude Dashboard

GOLD
The yellow metal It´s on a crossroads too.
Market conditions made a lot of people seek refuge in gold but as long as market keeps going up people are feeling FOMO and started to sell gold to risk on again. Technically the path of least resistance for gold looks to be down.
The weekly candle shows that there area lot of indecision in the market.
If the technical setup activates, I will buy at the orange box ~$1580.
One curiosity, gold is trading away far from it´s mean reversion. Often, assets tend to return to their mean reversions lines.
I am very bullish gold long term, of course It must have is up and downs during the time.

Oanda Gold CFD Daily / Weekly
TANOS Market Gauge Gold Chart
TANOS Market Gauge Gold Dashboard

SP500
It´s fighting for It´s life. No one knows what the hell is going on, the fed crushed the bond market ETF last week with a major inflow.

https://www.trackinsight.com

It´s seems almost impossible to slay the SP500 dragon but the dragon is starting to show some cracks. On the 4h chart and on the daily chart, the SP500 is forming and Head and Shoulders pattern. If the 4h pattern triggers, it may complete the daily one, causing a massive sell off.

Oanda SP500 CFD Daily / Weekly

Same as gold, the SP500 is trading far above It´s mean reversion lines.

TANOS Market Gauge SP500 Chart

+50% of the index components and still below their bull/bear line.

TANOS Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Airlines
They have been slaughtered by this crisis. They are very big businesses some even too big to fail and will receive massive bailouts. As an alligator I must make sure I am looking to grab my bite.
I am focusing in two stocks , both European. Lufthansa and Air France.
Both companies are pending bailouts decisions by the German and French government. The stocks will probably pop when it is reveled.
This will be a very long flight until things are back in “normal mode”. I will enter small positions at first and averaging up and down as long as the stock moves. Airlines are a very volatile business. A stop loss is a must on this one.
The upside seem really juicy.

AF & LHA Daily Chart

Shipping
It´s interesting again. Shipping companies are having huge profits, companies such us $TNK Just beat earnings, and have an iron clad book.
I am looking into two stocks $TNK and $STNG. Both seem good to start buying.
Same as airlines, Shipping is a risky business so my guard is up and stop losses are down.

TNK $ STNG Daily Chart

CAD & AUD
Still very bearish both, despite my AUDJPY got stopped, both are still on my radar. I am waiting for a better sell setup. AUDJPY needs to break the rising wedge and CADJPY probably will retest the upper band of the channel.
JPY is also looking to break out.

AUDJPY & CADJPY Daily Charts
JPY Futures daily

VIX
I don’t believe one can TA(technical analysis) the VIX, although a lot of signals can be extracted from the VIX.
VIX curve structure is not pricing in future risks, risk mode is off.

http://vixcentral.com/

VIX short term spreads are bullish

VIX Short term spreads

VIX long term spreads are dropping really fast. The signals for a SP500 sell off are between -2.5 & -3

VIX long term spreads

Another Notes
Safe havens are zig zaging

TANOS Market Gauge Safe havens dashboard

Sentiment is a bag of mixed feelings:
AAII & NAAIM

TANOS Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Fear Greed Index:

CBNC Fear &Greed Index

Insiders transactions, more selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

For last, total tape market volume is declining, a lot

TANOS Market Gauge Market volume dashboard

Articles:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-banks-are-buying-24-billion-assets-every-hour-their-balance-sheet-eclipse-20

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/where-hedge-funds-invest-13F/2020-q1.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retailers-reel-commercial-landlords-issue-thousands-default-notices

https://perchperspectives.com/reports/geopolitical-forces-shaping-the-2020s/

Events:
Monday
EUR – German GDP / German ifo Business Climate
GBP – Bank Holiday
USD – Bank Holiday

Tuesday
JPY – All Industries Activity
EUR – German Gfk Climate
USD – Consumer Confidence

Wednesday
EUR – ECB Lagarde speaks
CHF – Credit Suisse Economic expectations
USD – Richmond Man. Index

Thursday
USD – Prelim GDP / Core Goods / Unemployment Claims

Friday
JPY – Tokyo CPI/ Unemployment rate / Consumer confidence
EUR – CPI flash estimate / Core CPI flash estimate
CAD – GDP
USD – Core PCE / Personal Spending / Chicago PMI / UoM consumer sentiment / Fed Powell speaks

18 – 22 May 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Finally managed to get some action!!!
Trades:
Shorted AUDJPY AT ~70.03 I will ride this one out. Will explain better on the ideas section.

Gold, yeah got long, maybe I was wrong after all. The breakout was insane.
Managed to get long at 1716.75.

For last also managed to scalp a SP500 short ~2904.6 (ytdMR) till 2816.5.

Got a few handles(short) on STOXX50 too but nothing worth mentioning, were quick in and outs.

Still long $AG.

Was a nice week, got a little busy and missed some opportunities.
The GBPUSD short and the long USDCAD I shared on last week post.
The first missed at all, the second one it missed my entry point.

I have been struggling to keep focused, I am trying to work on that too.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    This week he had a breakdown on SP500 I do believe the worst is yet to come.
    Macro numbers are looking ugly but the Fed…
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Going, The Fed will started buy Corporate Bonds ETFs. This will escalate quickly
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Hey, maybe I am totally wrong on this one. If this does happen, I will use it to buy more gold.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    This will be an interesting trade, strong dollar, and EM FX weakness will probably drive soft and grains commodities down. Definitely keeping an eye on this.

Next Week:

Earnings Week 18 May 2020

More earnings:
Will be looking into: WMT,TGT,HRL,M,NVIDIA,BABA
There are a lot of Chinese companies presenting earnings. This will be interesting.

It´s time to start planning your stock shopping list.
I am not giving the speech about not actively trading your total portfolio.
What I will do is share what I am looking.

Airlines, yes they go bankrupt once in a while but they always, always survive.
Eying specially for Air France and Lufthansa. They should be target of government bailouts.

Iconic bullet proof brands, Coca- Cola, Pepsi, Disney, AT&T, etc
This brands have been with us since forever, they will remain here and wont go anywhere.

Food, not going the “Tech” way. Staying with the good old fashion stuff.
Hormel foods, Nestle, McCormick , McDonald’s, etc people are tired of eating at home and cooking.

Tech, why not boost your holdings on the best performance sector.
Amazon, Microsoft, $XLK Thats all you need basically.

CRUDE

It was a really good week for crude overall. Even had an Inventory drawdown on the EIA report.
June contract will expire of 19th May. Might be some bumpy road ahead.
Definitely has steam go to to $25.
My view on crude is that the price will remain trapped between a range, probably $15-$25 while the demand issues are not resolved.
I am currently staying away from crude. There´s too much uncertainty for me.

Oanda WTI CFD
TANOS Crude Dashboard

And interesting sector that I am particularly looking into again is tankers.
They took a beating this week. Looking into $STNG, $EURN and $DSSI

GOLD
Nothing much to say, I was wrong on the fundamentals.
The technical breakout was pretty strong.
My setup for long was on the breakout restest with a TTM squeeze buy signal.
The resistance at ~1747 might prove a challenge. The stop is below the support and the TP is – 1770.

Oanda GOLD CFD

That being said, this happened last week:

SP500
The breakdown was clear. It dropped hard without any retest.
What I am looking is that red resistance at 2876. I am looking into short there with a ~5 points stoploss. For TP I don’t have a clear target, will let it ride and manage it but the 0.5 fib zone looks though to break so must be a decent target.
SAR signals also bearish.

Oanda SP500 CFD
Oanda CFD SP500
TANOS SPX Dashboard

STOXX50
Almost a repeat from SP500. The 2970 resistance is providing some nice short opportunities. Tight stoploss of ~5 points and let it ride. TP, the 0.61 fib looks strong so keep an eye on it.

Oanda STOX50 CFD

CAD
It´s going, but the time is not upon us, yet.
As this new crises unfolds the CAD looks really vulnerable.

CAD Daily and Weekly Chart

The CADJPY, TTM Squeeze already triggered a sell signal on the daily and the reject of the 76.54 is a very good signal for shorts.
I am looking a close below structure channel + breakdown on the triangle to enter a short.

CADJPY Daily and Weekly Chart

AUDJPY
I am a little bit to excited with this trade. Technically it looks amazing, too amazing to be true.
I got short at ~70.03. On a short term, it looks like a H&S inside a rising wedge.
I am planning on adding more on the neckline breakdown, below ~67.759.
On a longer timeframe, we have already a huge H&S in play.
This can a be a hell of a trade! That´s making me nervous.

AUDJPY Daily and Monthly Chart

Another Notes

VIX Short term spreads end up bearish

VIX Short Term Spreads

Stocks / Commodities ratio is looking interesting

Stocks / Commodities chart

Natgas, things are getting ugly. Summer is upon us and technically it does looks ugly.

Oanda CFD Natgas

Senators buying selling

https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/senatetrading

Articles:

https://www.topdowncharts.com/single-post/2020/05/12/Broken-Indicators-The-Forward-PE-and-the-PEG

Bank of Japan as a Contrarian Stock Investor: Large-Scale ETF Purchases

Marin Katusa is a a legend on the commodities industry, this interview is very good.

Events:
Monday
JPY – Prelim GDP /Tertiary Industry Activity
GBP – CB Leading Index
USD – NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday
JPY – Revised Industrial Production
GBP – Average Earnings Index / Unemployment Rate
EUR – ZEW / German ZEW
CNY – CB Leading Index
AUD – CB Leading Index

Wednesday
JPY – Core machinery Orders
GBP – CPI / Core CPI
EUR – CPI / Core CPI / Consumer Confidence
CAD – CPI

Thursday
AUD – Flash PMI
JPY – Flash PMI
GBP – Flash PMI
USD – Flash PMI / Philly Fed Man. Index / Unemployment Claims


Friday
EUR – Flash PMI
GBP – Retail Sales
CAD – Core retail sales

11 – 15 May 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
This last trading weeks have been hard as hell. Last week I got stopped from the only trade I made, short CADJPY.
I believe that in order to improve my trading, I don’t have to be always trading, I am brushing up on my macro. I am reading a lot, better then reading I am trying to understand and puzzle it all together. It´s a time investment.

My open trades still are, long gold, long $AG. I have to confess I have been struggling not to open new trades, my patience to wait for clear signals are reaching an end. I think this market conditions are being hard on all traders.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Still believe this, this is a never ending bear rally, I almost sound like Nouriel Roubini I know.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Yes confirming, every single day.
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    I am almost giving up on this idea. technicals for gold and silver look amazing.
    I can totally be wrong on this one.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are getting slammed hard. I believe this will provide buy opportunities for the entire decade. When grains start to pump, they will pump hard, remember patience.
US Yields

Next Week:
I am scratching myself not to short SP500 and Stoxx50.
This Monday we will have the US Mortage Delinquencies number and this will tell a tale of how families are surviving the corona virus. This brings me to a big conundrum, markets have been rallying on really bad news. I will wait for a reversal signals before going short. I will overlay EURAUD on SP500 for more insights, remember, they correlate negatively.

Next Thursday, May14th It´s and OPEX day, prepare for some serious action this week to regarding to this.
More Earnings:
Looking at DDOG, TLRY, CSCO, FTCH, JD, NEWR

11th May Earnings

CRUDE

https://themarketear.com/
TANOS CRUDE Dashboard

The V shape recovery on crude is on the stocks side. Despite the big rally last week, I do believe crude, specially WTI is reaching it´s near term top. Further downside will be in play, specially with the expiration of the June contract on the 19th.

Oanda WTI CFD weekly chart

GOLD
The technical setup for gold looks really interesting, despite being bear on the short term. If this setup plays out, I will have to change my bias.
I still believe that every gold dip should be a buying opportunity. Watch the support at ~1680 or the 30dMR.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily chart

SP500
Only Jerome Powell knows what SP500 will do next.
It´s like trading and asking a magic 8ball for advice.
On the daily, last Friday it rejected the 0.38fib level. Bare in mind that until the trend line is broken, the trend is still up. On the hourly chart, looks like a pullback is eminent. No reversal signals appeared yet.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Oanda SP500 CFD hourly
TANOS SPX Dashboard

CAD
I am very bearish on CAD and Canada overall. Vancouver city is bankrupt. Canada economy is looking worse by the day It´s reliability on commodities exports and real estate s troublesome.
How I am playing this, long USDCAD / Short CADJPY and long XAUCAD.
Interesting data from the CoT too, money managers are positions short on the CAD.

Oanda USDCAD daily chart
Oanda CADJPY Weekly chart
TANOS CoT Dashboard

Another Notes

Stocks / Commodities ratio, a big drop last week. It´s the commodities strike back moment?

Stocks/Commodities ratio

VIX Short term spreads turned bullish

VIX Spreads

US stocks volume have been dropping sharply

US stocks volume

Things on sentiment is becoming weirder by the day. AAII Survey is mainly bearish, NAAIM turned bullish, European sentiment is negative overall.

TANOS Sentiment Dashboard

Safe Havens It´s a bag of mixed feelings.

TANOS Safe Havens Dashboard

GBPUSD looks ready to drop hard.

TANOS Minerva systems

I dipped my toe on bitcoin for the first time back in 2017. Sold some at the top but been riding this with up and down with a small part of my portfolio. This is not a bad looking chart.

BTC Daily chart

The last but probably the most important, Insider selling. IF they don’t want their own shares, you shouldn’t want them too. They know Q2 results will be terrible, they are dumping stock left and right.

http://www.openinsider.com/insider-sales

Articles:
https://www.etftrends.com/can-your-etf-go-negative-is-that-possible/


What’s next after the big bounce – Mark Dow joins Alpha Trader

Just discovered this, Its just amazing: https://www.occupyajobonwallstreet.com/

Events:
Monday
USD – Mortage Delinquencies

Tuesday
JPY – Leading Index
USD – NFIB Small Business Index / CPI / Core CPI

Wednesday
JPY – Economic Watchers Sentiment
GBP – Prelim. GDP / Man. Production / Index Services / Industrial Production
EUR – Industrial Production
USD – Core PPI / PPI

Thursday
AUD – Jobs
EUR – German CPI
USD – Unemployment Claims

Friday
CNY – Industrial Production / Retail Sales / Unemployment Rate
EUR – German Prelim. GDP / EUR flash GDP
USD – Core retail sales / retail sales /Empire State Man. Index / industrial Production / UoM Sentiment / Jolts Jobs

Using python and dtale to analyze correlations

I can´t say this enough times, correlations matter and correlations are in deed a traders best friend.

Correlations are very useful but very hard to plot without some code knowledge. Fortunately the guys that made dtale are life savers.
https://github.com/man-group/dtale
dtatle is a library that allows you to manipulate data, you can re-order it, plot it, export it, etc.

Today I will share with you a simple way to plot ETF correlations.
For starters you should go to my shared content and download the spreadsheet with the ETF data, I will update this file at least monthly.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/ click on the “Reports” link and download the file.

I will assume you have python installed on your machine.

For starters you need to install dtale

pip install dtale

After dtale is installed you can copy paste this snippet.

import pandas as pd
import dtale

data = pd.read_excel("YOUR_FILE_PATH.xlsx") 
d= dtale.show(data)
d.open_browser()

Replace “YOUR_FILE_PATH.xlsx” with your file path and run it.
You will see something like this.

dtale start up

After this, go to the top left corner and click on the arrow. Select the correlation menu.

dtale correlation menu

A new window will pop up, now you are free to explore. search for specific correlations, change the Rolling Window for a smother data, have fun.

Find more stuff on my github:
https://github.com/tiagolvsantos/eod_notes

If you have any questions or want help to try some strategies up, feel free to drop me a message.

Have an awesome day,

Tiago

4 – 8 May 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
Last week I got a question from a friend that I thought I should share.
He asked me why some of my setups don’t happen on the week I talk about them. The answer is simple, I don’t trade daily. I look and weekly charts and monthly charts. I use daily charts for entries. Bigger timeframes give you clear perspectives, daily charts have “noise” from market news and events. That being said, I share assets and trades that I am willing to have open for weeks or months.
Talking trade, last week I didn’t made any trade. I didn’t pull the trigger on long USDCAD and my longs for MSFT and APPL failed the entries on last Thrusday´s dip and I didn’t chase.
CADJPY, AUDJPY and EURAUD are all in the radar since last week.

This week the reports and spreadsheets I usually share are a little different. They have more content and different formats. I have been redoing my frameworks and algos. Taking advantage of the free time and patience and breath I am giving the markets.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    SP500 started to turn red, even with big earnings we closed the week on the red. Maybe It´s a start for a bigger pullback
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Yup, not much to say about this
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    This week a lot of european countries will start to re-open. Let´s see how gold reacts
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    It´s been a bloodbath lef and right. They will pose great opportunities to long for a patient investor.

Next Week:
Another action packed week of earnings

Earnings 4 May 2020

I will be looking at:
DIS – All parks are closed and I dont think streaming will save DIS this earnings. A big dip may provide a great long opportunity as quarentine is being eased and the return no normal will reopen the parks.
NEM & GOLD – Gold miners, their earnings might tell where gold´s heading next.
SHOP – Shopify earnings may mark the recently top for the stock.
STNG – tankers, Scorpio is a big company. I failed the entry to long tankers. I doubt I will get a nice entry post earnings but It´s on my radar.
UBER & LYFT – This will be bad, It´s just morbid curiosity
BKNG – Booking Holdings, Tourism being stalled everywhere the business for booking sites may be down substantially. Big drops may provide great entries for long term.

I am watching mining stocks for any pullback to key levels.
As said last week, XLE and XLF for any government bailouts.

CRUDE
The puppy is sick, despite of the recent pump, If you look to long term crude is trapped on a massive down turn. We are down 550% $65 in 581 days. This is a big trend. Supply is still greater than demand. Keep your eye on the ball and don’t fomo in. Despite all this, crude may trade to $25 the technicals are there but I think it will only provide a opportunity for shorts. This is the 4th week straight of massive inventory builds despite production cuts.

Oanda WTI CFD
TANOS CRUDE Dashboard

GOLD
Again, long term I am bullish as hell. Short term I fear It will have a pullback. Call it the return to normal pullback. Any touch on the orange box, I am buying.

Oanda GOLD CFD – Weekly
Oanda GOLD CFD – Daily

SP500
Last week earnings pumped SP500 to 2959 in the cash session, to revert south on huge earnings at the en of the week. This was weird, maybe people are catching up to the narrative It´s not only the virus, It´s the impact on the economy. 66% of SP500 are still below the 250 DMA. The 2800 level is heavily disputed. SPX cash rejected 0.38 fib perfectly. This is very important because it rejected it two days in a row.

Oanda SP500 CFD – Daily
TANOS SPX Dashboard
CME QuickStrike
SPX Cash session

YEN
YEN is poised for a massive breakout. I see some vulnerabilities on AUD and CAD vs the YEN. Bare in mind this is long term plays, have patience. This Tuesday RBA will decide rates an acceleration on RBA might help this trade.

JXY Weekly chart
Oanda AUDJPY Weekly
Oanda CADJPY Daily

Another Notes
Insiders are not buying the fed printer again.

Insiders Sentiment

Sentiment still mixed

TANOS Dashbaord Market Sentiment

Safe Havens are starting to gain strength again

TANOS Safe Havens Dashboard

Huge drop on the Weekly Economic Index

Weekly Economic Index – Fred

Articles:
Barrick dispute with Papua New Guinea

A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation – Meb Faber

The Original Quant (guest: Rob Hanna) – Market Huddle Ep.78

Events:
Monday
EUR – MAN. PMI / Sentix Investor Confidence
CHF – MAN. PMI
USD -. Factory orders
AUD – AIG Construction Index

Tuesday
AUD – Rates Decision
USD –Services PMI / ISM NON. MAN PMI
CHF – SECO Climate
GBP – Services PMI

Wednesday
EUR – German factory orders / Services PMI / retail sales
GBP – Construction PMI
AUD – AIG Services Index

Thursday
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – German Industrial production
USD – Unemployment Claims
CAD – IVEY PMI

Friday
USD – Jobs data
CAD – Jobs data




27 Apr – 1 May 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
I been trading less and risking less.
I closed my position on $GOLD (Barrick Gold) for + ~36% the last Thursdays candle looked toppy. I will look to go back in on a pullback.
I also closed my USDCAD short, when price failed to close above 1.42489 it was my hint. USDCAD will go higher but profits are profits. I am looking to take another long on a new retest of 1.40062.

Positions on $AG, $XAUUSD (longs) are still open.
I have been using a lot of time refactoring and creating new frameworks for my algos. Despite not being trading much, I am using this time to learn new strategies, code, backtest and study macro.
Maybe next week I will have more free content to share.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    This is being hard to digest, market rumors and the Fed are pumping this market up. I stand by my opinion, patience is a virtue.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Yup, not much to say about this
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    This is a curve ball, Gold is pumping, JPY is setting up nicely for a pump too but Silver and CHF and looking really weak.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    CRB Index reached a new ATH low
CRB Commodity Index

Next Week:
Another action packed week of earnings

Earnings Week 27 April 2020

So far earnings have been very disappointing.

Earnings beating consensus – https://themarketear.com/posts/c84QLsijZo

I will be looking into MSFT, APPL, V, FB ,BA, LUV and AMD.
Two special notes for this week:
1- Airlines, earnings should be very, very bad. They will probably be subject to government bailouts. For the long term this downside should be excellent buying opportunities.
2- Oil companies. Mnuchin already said that the US is looking into taking a stake on oil companies as a bailout mechanism. XLE biggest companies as % are XOM and CVX. When this pumps be ready and don´t miss the boat.
As oil is being bailed out, XLF and banks will ride that wave too because they are the most exposed to debt (HYG and JNK), be aware to surf that wave too.

CRUDE
I wouldn’t touch crude directly with a two foot pole, the volatility and uncertainty will eat your trade alive.
It´s rumored that new OPEC + talks will happen and Trump is committed to stop the oil bleeding too.
Crude spreads are going nuts, and Brent shines as more stable than WTI.
If you want to play long/short crude be aware of volatility or use correlated assets with lower volatility.

TANOS WTI

GOLD
Not much to say, I still believe in a short term pullback but long term I am very bullish. Some people are seeing a IH&S being formed, but without a breakout my bias maintains.

Daily XAUUSD chart

SP500
Probably this earnings week will decide the fate of SP500.
It´s been trading in a range and the technical setup supports a bearish bias.
Some of the index constituents are starting to turn red. SPY outflows YTD continue.

SP500 Daily chart
TANOS SPX
SPY Outflows

YEN/ CAD
Yen is position to pump hard, on the monthly chart is already squeezing a screaming buy. On the other hand, CAD looks ready to die. Great way to play this is CADJPY.

Monthly YEN
Monthly CAD

Another Notes
Insiders are not buying the fed printer trigger, and buybacks are at the lows. If execs are reaching for life boats, they should know what´s what.

Insiders transactions
Insiders selling by index

Sentiment is mixed, confusion reigns in the market

TANOS Sentiment

Safe Havens are also mixed

TANOS Safe Havens

Articles:
WSJ Article on crude storage
Visual Capitalist info chart about dividend investing on volatile markets

Events:
Monday
EUR – German Retail Sales m/m

Tuesday
JPY – Unemployment rate / Core CPI
USD – Consumer Confidence / Richmond Man. Index

Wednesday
USD – Advaned GDP / FOMC
AUD – CPI

Thursday
JPY – Retail sales / Consumer Confidence
CNY – MAN. PMI / NON MAN. PMI
CHF – KOF Economic Sentiment
EUR – German Unemployment / CPI / Core CPI / EUR Unemployment Rate
USD – Unemployment Claims / Chicago PMI

Friday
JPY – Man. PMI
CHF – Man. PMI
GBP – Man. PMI
CAD – Man. PMI
USD – Man. PMI
EUR – Bank Holiday




19 – 24 Apr 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
Last week I only took a trade. Short USDCAD.
Here is my thesis. USDCAD correlates negatively with WTI. I am bearish crude but I will explain why on the Crude section.

Correlations between USDCAD and WTI

CAD technically and fundamentally looks very weak. Canada´s economy is falling into shambles and the CAD relies on crude prices to be stable.

CAD Currency Weekly chart

It was a crazy week overall, sadly the corona virus situation isn’t improving.
Markets are still rallying acting as everything is fine. This is insane.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    This week bulls swing for the fences, the SP500 rallying but is inside a rising wedge, maybe a retest of ~2900 is possible because Its the YTD mean reversion.
    Still believe we are heading much lower.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Shorter terms are already negative.
US Gov Bond Yields

3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
Gold corrected lower last Friday. News on stability and GILD treatment relived market sentiment. When everything stabilizes for good, old will correct much lower.
4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
Grains started to suffer, corn is already reaching 52W low price per bushel.

Next Week:
I don´t believe It´s time to go long.I am mostly in cash with four trades open, long gold, long $GOLD(Barrick Gold), long $AG and short USDCAD.
At the same time, I don’t believe It´s time to short the market, SP500 is showing a lot of power. We need to have a reversal event in order to trigger shorts.
I will keep watching the FX market for plays. Special note to grains and natgas, Corn is almost at a 52W low price per bushel, It might be worth a shot. Natgas ripped but is still inside a falling wedge, pay attention to a possible breakout.

Earnings season is steaming up ahead. Online companies will do good, home delivery services will do OK, everything else will do poorly. If you play earnings, be safe out there. It´s going to be a roller coaster.

Earnings week 19 April 2020

CRUDE
Oil markets are absolutely insane. Futures curve are in a super contango.

Oil futures contango – https://themarketear.com/

This is not enough to drive oil prices up. The supply is much bigger than the demand and while this doesn’t change, the price should go down. Even with massive OPEC+ cuts and Trump saying he will pay producers to not produce, the oil prices are driven by supply / demand laws.
Last Friday crude closed below the trend line and below support,It looks bad.

Oanda CFD WTI weekly chart
TANOS Market Gauge Crude

This is not all bad, in shore storage is reaching it´s capacity limit, so off shore storage is being contracted. BDI index is starting to turn positive and some tanker stocks are printing big green candles. I am not playing this, I arrived late to the party. If a new pullback happens I will look into it.

Baltic Dry Index

GOLD
Long term, I am very bullish gold, that´s why I am long from the base ~13xx level. This being said, Short term I believe gold prices will catch up with reality once the supply chain issues are resolved.

Gold monthly chart

The orange box on this chart is the level I am looking into adding to my gold bags.

Gold Daily chart
TANOS Market Gauge – Gold

SP500
Still inside a rising wedge. A new leg up to test the YTD mean reversion at ~2900 is still possible before rolling over. There´s the space and momentum for a last push higher.

Oanda SP500 Daily chart
Oanda SP500 Cloud chart
TANOS Market Gauge SP500

Another Notes
Insiders are not buying the fed printer trigger, and buybacks are at the lows.

Insiders transactions
https://themarketear.com/
https://themarketear.com/

Sentiment is still mostly bearish but the market keeps rallying, some people call it a bear market rally, others are saying the bottom is in. Pick a side.

TANOS Market Gauge Sentiment

Nasdaq is being the top performer, Tech is ripping on this bounce. When and If a sell off happens this stocks may provide great buying opportunities.

TANOS Market Gauge NASDAQ Perfs

Events:
Monday
EUR – German PPI
CAD – Wholesales m/m

Tuesday
GBP – Avg. Earnings Index / Unemployment rate
EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment / ZEW Economic Sentiment
CAD – Core retail sales / Retail sales
USD – Existing home sales

Wednesday
GBP – CPI / CORE CPI / PPI
CAD – CPI
CNY – CB Leading Index
EUR – Consumer Confidence

Thursday
AUD – Flash PMIs
JPY – Flash Man. PMI
EUR – Flash PMIs / German GFK Consumer Sentiment
GBP – Flash PMIs
USD – Flash PMIs / Unemployment claims

Friday
GBP – GFK Consumer Confidence / Retail Sales
EUR – German IFO
USD – Durable Goods / UoM Consumer Sentiment




13 – 17 Apr 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

From last week:
What a crappy week.
I had to cut my short on AUDJPY for a small profit.
My risk management parameters made me cut it. Rules are there for protecting you from yourself. My instincts and opinion may be correct about AUDJPY but the market is telling me I am wrong.
Trade with rules and a plan.
My decision to trade less and watch the markets It´s working out for me, I am being able to learn and understand the market swings and news.
Trading in this environment feels more like gambling.


My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Despite this huge pump, I don’t believe we saw the bottom. Economic numbers are horrible and earnings season is starting. When those big airlines report, it may bring everything down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, Powell went on full “brrrrrrrr” the FED printer is working 24/7.
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Huge rally this week. I maintain my opinion. When this supply chain disruption ends. Gold will correct lower, providing a good buying opportunity . I already have gold on my portfolio, a test to the 1500 level is a buying opportunity for long term
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Not doing much as everything is on freeze. Corn is approaching some lows.
    Copper rebounded and oil is in a no mans land.

Next Week:
It´s going to be another crazy week.
I will keep my plan, I will trade small positions or not trading at all. I will use my time to study market movements and improve my systems.
That being said, this is what is catching my attention.
Earnings season is starting:

April 13 earnings week

FED balance sheet is full steaming head, Powell is printing 24×7. This looks like a crypto chart

FED Balance Sheet

CRUDE
OPEC+ decided to cut production, 9.7M bd per day let´s see how futures open. Demand is driving the price. Crude is in a no mans land and I think this wont do much for price while demand remains this low.

WTI Daily

GOLD
Went full on rocket man. FED printing press and supply chain disturbances in the gold physical delivery market are pumping the price higher. When the dust settles, a correction will happen, fast and furious.

Gold Daily

SP500
Last week the TTM triggered a long signal on the daily chart. A retest on the ytd mean reversion of ~2900 is possible. It also broke out the rising wedge, invalidating the pattern.

SP500 Daily

Another Notes
Insiders started selling the pump.

Insiders transactions chart

Sentiment is in a what I call weird mood. Bearish on the economy, bullish on the FED printer.

Market Sentiment

Safe Havens are going up, such is the market. Correlations don’t matter.

Safe Havens


St. Louis FED Financial Stress Index, well that spike sure does means something.

St. Louis FED Financial Stress Index

Events:
Monday

Tuesday
CNY – Foreign direct inevstiment ytd/y / USD denominated trade balance

Wednesday
AUD – Westpac consumer sentiment
USD – Core Retail Sales / Retail Sales / Empire state manufacturing Index / Industrial production / NAHB Housing Market Index
CAD – Rates decision

Thursday
AUD – Employment
EUR – German WPI / CPI / Industrial Production
USD – Unemployment claims / Philly Fed man. Index / Building Permits

Friday
CNY – Industrial Production / Retail Sales / Unemployment Claims
JPY -Tertiary Industry Activity
EUR – CPI / CORE CPI
USD – CB Leading Index



6 – 10 Apr 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
I feel I am repeating myself. Another hell of a week. Markets went up and down with mad swings.
For me It´s being very hard and challenging keeping it up with all this news and activity. So I decided to mainly focus on SP500, FX, Gold and crude. No stocks at all.
The AUDJPY trade is going well, short since 66.508 it´s in profit for ~163 pips. I will keep it open, I think it will go lower.
In midst of all this, I have been reducing the amount of trade I do per week, I am adapting my trades in a way I can be more “comfortable” with them.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    It´s still a long way to bottom
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    Short term US bonds are already negative and going into more negative territory
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Gold had a nice rally but I think it will go down before going much higher (I do own gold)
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Commodities battle and swing according dollar prices, if the dollar is strong commodities prices go down and vice versa. DXY is looking strong

Next Week:
AUD
I could throw a bunch of ideas of shorts but it would not be any different from your own analysis. I try to do this to share a different perspective on the market.
That being said, my “main” play at the moment is short AUDJPY. Things do look dire for the AUD and versus the Yen seems to be the best way to play it.
Yen looks very strong, it´s a safe haven and due to AUDJPY correlation with the SP500 It validates the price prediction.

AUD Weekly chart
JPY Weekly chart

CRUDE
This is a though one, I really like to trade WTI, It´s one of the main things I usually trade but this is starting to be insane. On last Thursday Trump tweeted that Saudis and Russians were talking and the WTI jumped almost 25% spot.
Common sense says to me that WTI is a no trade asset for the moment.
I do belive WTI will head lower before starting to gain up momentum.
Nonetheless here is my chart.

WTI Weekly chart

This will complicate things for crude prices.

CAD
This is a weird one. It looks ready to fall in oblivion.
It´s high correlation to crude prices makes it one asset to be watching.
Ways to play will be CADJPY/ USDCAD / EURCAD
A close below the yellow box will be a trigger for a short

CAD Weekly chart

GOLD
It is forming a massive cup and handle. Long term I am very bullish on gold, short term I am aware that the downside is more plausible. Maybe a retest of the 1500 lvl or lower.

Gold Weekly chart

SP500
Things are bad, market is bouncing but I feel it´s a dead cat bounce. There are still a lot of dip buyers but people are starting to see the bigger picture. Economic data is deteriorating by the day and this corona virus pandemic is affecting business throughout the world.
I still see SP500 reaching ~2000.

SP500 Weekly Chart

Another Notes
If on mid march, insiders were buying like crazy, last week, insiders were selling a ton.

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

SPY is still seeing a lot of inflows, month-to-month inflows are still positive.

Track Insight SPY Flows

I am taking this time to read and learn new things. I would like to share a few links:
Blogs:
https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/black-swan-events/
https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/56742/global-once-we-are-out-of-this-mess-the-usd-could-be-hammered

Podcasts:
Macro voices 213 Josh Crumb: Deciphering the Gold market
https://bit.ly/2V02hxM
hmmminars from Grant Williams
https://ttmygh.com/hmmminars/

Events:
Monday
EUR – German factory orders m_m /Sentix Investor confidence
GBP – Construction PMI
OPEC Meetings

Tuesday
AUD – Rates Decision
JPY – CB leading Index
EUR – German Industrial Production m_m
CAD – IVEY PMI
USD – Jolts Jobs Openings

Wednesday
JPY – Core machinery orders m_m / Economic Watchers Sentiment
CHF – Unemployment rate
USD – FOMC

Thursday
JPY – Consumer Confidence / Prelim Machinery orders m_m
GBP – GDP /Industrial production / Manufacturing Production / Index of Services
CAD – Jobs Data
USD – Unemployment claims / Core PPI / PPI /Prelim UoM consumer sentiment

Friday (Bank Holiday)
JPY PPI
CNY – CPI / PPI/ New loans
USD – CPI / Core CPI