3 – 7 August trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a crazy week for stocks and FX.
DXY had a breakdown, SP500 keeps on living despite bad fundamentals.
I haven´t placed a single trade.

Still long $AG and $LVO

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Crazy movements on Thursday and Friday´s close. No one on their right mind would short the SP500.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Road to $2000?
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    A bag of mixed feelings, was expecting better.

Next Week:
I will start the host migration, I will get the new website up and running with all the new and cooler features.
I usually don’t trade much during August, I take the month to do other stuff and have mental rest.
It´s important to have a break from the markets and as things are going, market movements can drive anyone crazy.
Trading not being my only source of income I don’t feel the pressure to keep trading all the time.
I will keep giving my opinions and insights about markets and may add a few positions but the main focus will be the website migration.

Earnings:

Earnings Whispers

WTI
The rejection on the $42 level is clear, but the pitchfork is holding strong, markets are doing crazy stuff. It´s smart not to trade. Trading is not gambling, know your risk.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Gold
The urge to go long is starting to be an itch I can’t scratch.
Fortunately, my trading rules forbid me to long gold at this time.
I am not saying gold cant go higher, I do believe gold can go much higher, but at this time the risks outpaces the reward as the movement is too extended in my opinion.
I build my positions on gold a long time ago, so I am totally fine sitting back and waiting. If a movement below $1800 happens, I will gladly add to my stack.

Oanda CFD Gold daily


SP500
Those last two trading days were crazy, completely bananas.
It´s crazy to short it, the moves It makes are wild and can wipe you out badly.
On the other hand, It´s crazy to long in on so many uncertainties. The only gambling I do is poker, and even in that, I choose my odds wisely.
The upside is capped, so bears got that rolling for them.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

The dollar
Last week I made a call on EURGBP depending on how It would trade in the next few days.
The call was a long EURGBP depending 0.90 held above the trend line. Well, It didn´t, in fact, It pooped the bed.
GBPUSD had a huge rally but it seems to be capped on 1.31.
The dollar will keep getting weaker I think, the play might be commodities for a while. But for commodities to shine I think the dust must settle on the world chaos we are in.

DDXY and GBPUSD daily charts
TANOS Analytics DXY CoT Dashboard
TANOS Analytics GBP CoT Dashboard

FX
During these weird times, I like to always keep an eye on CAD & AUD Vs JPY. JPY seems to be super strong and CAD and AUD look week, If a second have of corona hits, they might fall off a cliff.

CADJPY & AUDJPY daily
TANOS Analytics JPY CoT Dashboard

EURAUD is also an interesting pair to watch due to correlation with SP500, an inverse one.

EURUAD daily

Airlines
Should be kept an eye on, If the break the SAR range, they might pop for a nice profit like last time.

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– Man. & Services PMIs
– USD Jobs data
-AUD & GBP cash rates

27 – 31 July Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
This week off on my trading plan works wonders for me.
I feel energized and ready to rumble again.

Added a new report on the free goodies, SP500 components price targets.

Still long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Closed the week red, but the trend is not broken.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    What a ride! I think FOMO is starting to kick in for a lot of people. I like to buy my gold cheap.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    It´s like a text book play, on any sign of DXY weakness, commodities rise.

Next Week:
This week I will try to do something different. I will make an overview of what’s on my radar. I won’t talk anything specific, just throwing things to generate thoughts.

Kicking off this week, the earnings calendar is packed. A lot of tech in the mix, I am betting on a lot of surprises. Special notes for $FB, $MCD, $CAT, $V and $BA.

Earnings Whispers

Another important thing is the decreasing volume on the tape across all US markets.

TANOS Analytics – Market Tape Dashboard

WTI
WTI is though as hell, the market is swinging left and right and It just doesn’t come down.
The $42 zone is near resistance (Oanda CFD).
The rising wedge pattern is not broken, yet. I would like to see a retest of the $42 level and then a clean break of the pattern.
If this happens, I feel confident to get back in the mix trading WTI.

Oanda WTI CFD daily
TANOS Analytics WTI mean reversions

Markets have no interest on WTI futures, Open Interest is decreasing every week.

TANOS Analytics WTI Vs WTI Futures OI

Gold
Amazing, I started this quarter waiting for a gold pullback, and what a flop.
I won’t fomo in. I am long gold on the physical side since early $1500 but I have to confess that my finger is itching with this rally.
In my head, It makes sense for gold to pull back a little to alleviate indicators stress. When it does, I will probably create a new small position.
The chart, It´s extended, RSI is at 82 and It´s even flirting above the upper Bollinger Band.
The Standard Deviation -1 may be a very good support point.

One thing to note, Gold broke out on almost every cross.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
TANOS Analytics Gold Standard Deviations
TANOS Analytics Gold mean reversions


SP500
No one and I mean literally, no one knows what’s next for SP500.
There are a lot of guesses and a lot of predictions but the tape doesn´t lie. People don´t have the courage to bet against the market or the guts too long it.
That being said, The trend is not broken and It´s possible to visit all-time highs.
On technicals, the upper Bollinger Band is acting as an effective resistance.
SP500 is trading above all important mean reversion lines, which is a red flag for me.
I will be looking at a clean break of the 3140 level.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
TANOS Analytics SP500 mean reversions
TANOS Analytics SP500 standard deviations
TANOS Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

SP500 futures volume in correlation with VIX usually proxies the SP500 next move.It´s an inverted signal, so If the aims down, the SP500 will go up.

TANOS Analytics SP500 Volume Vs VIX settle

The tale of the dollar
What a dumpster fire. CoT report shows Leveraged funds and money managers are going short dollars.

TANOS Analytics CoT DXY

A few weeks ago, I talked about a trade involving EURUSD and GBPUSD and It´s spread, EURGBP.
EURUSD still has room to go and from a long perspective, GBPUSD seems weak. The Brexit deal may be pulled out of the table pushing EURGBP higher.
What I am looking at EURGBP, the 0.90 level is a heavy resistance so I would like to see a consolidation pattern above it. A few more daily candles, on-trend and above 0.90.

Oanda ERUSD and GBPUSD daily
Oanda ERUGBP daily

Other pairs to watch on DXY weakness are USDCHF and USDJPY. Both seem ready to die.

Oanda USDCHF and USDJPY

Another Notes
Sentiment is diverging with the market trend:

TANOS Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Insiders keep selling:

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Safe Havens are seeing huge bids:

TANOS Market Gauge Safe Havens Dashboard

Gold Vs VIX correlation, points VIX to go higher:

TANOS Analytics Gold Vs VIX

Gold Vs Yen, points Yen to go higher:

TANOS Analytics Gold Vs YEN

Interesting Articles

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1283857596089282565.html (Thread about  CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio)

https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/07/21/harley-bassmans-trades-for-the-election/

https://www.ft.com/content/ccb46309-bba4-4fb7-b3fa-ecb17ea0e9cf?mc_cid=65f3e3283e&mc_eid=2fd1a72551 (Jim Chanos: ‘We are in the golden age of fraud’)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/tracking-the-growing-wave-of-oil-gas-bankruptcies-in-2020/

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– FOMC
– USD Cash rates
– USD GDP
– GER GDP
– CNY Manufacturing PMI

20 – 24 July 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
A weird week, earnings season just started with a bag of mix feelings.
SP500 is trapped below 3230.6 (Oanda SP500 CFD) and gold 1800 breakout was kinda of a fluke, lacked strength and follow thru.

Netflix earnings, what a cringe thing to watch. I think a lot of weird surprises are going to happen this earnings season.

Still long $AG,also added to my $LVO position.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    It´s trapped and can go above 3230.6, at the same time, It refused to brake down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Can´t close above 1800 with conviction, should be a red alert.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    DXY is hanging in there by a thread, It´s one of the trades I am watching Vs the EUR and GBP.

Next Week:
It´s earnings season, again.
From time to time, I found that taking a breather from the markets helps clear my mind and bias.

It´s not vacations, but a breather. A step out of the arena to catch my breath and compose myself. I will still be watching some assets, but I will take my time to relive some stress. I won´t be taking any new positions during this week,at least I am not planing too.

I am sorry if you were looking for new ideas, these rest weeks are part of my trading plan. I can´t go 24/7 for very long periods of time. I need to hit the brakes now and then.

All the reports and data will be available as always, If you have any question or just wanna chat about markets, hit me up on twitter I will respond asap.

Have fun!

13 -17 July 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a weird time to live. Everything is getting worse by the week and the markets keep pumping. SP500 is an immortal god, It gets stabbed, jabbed, slice and diced and keeps fighting and pumping like It´s no ones business.

Haven´t placed a trade, just stood back and watched, made a few plans and configured new alerts. My setups didn´t trigger sell or buy signals.

Coded a lot this week, had a lot of chores and code cleanup to do.

Started reading the principles of MMT and Frederic Bastiat “The Law”.

Still long $AG and $LVO.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Quoting Dave Portnoy “stocks can only go up” It seems more believable by the day.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Having a difficult time to stay above $1800.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
Well, not much to do despite watching SP500 and the US10Y yield.
To overvalued to buy, to risky to sell.

WTI
It´s in a stand still, looking to WTI chart is like watching a western, the battle between and outlaw and a sheriff. Bulls Vs bears waiting to see to blinks first.
It´s flirting with overbought levels, the 200dma is acting as resistance.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

One thing to bare in mind, and this actually bared fruit to me, is WTI correlation with TYX. Usually TYX moves first and WTI follows.

TANOS Analytics – Crude futures and TYX

Gold
The struggle for gold is real and maybe the bull side is a little bit too overcrowded. I have been calling for a retrace for a while and I think It would be very healthy to shake some weak hands off.

Oanda CFD Gold – daily


SP500
The trend is not broken and every dip is bought heavily.It´s impossible and unwise to fight it.
The top of he BB is acting as resistance.

Oanda CFD SP500 – daily

The VIX and ES1 futures volume correlation is trying to signal that the VIX is coming back, hard.

TANOS Analytics – VIX Vs ES1 volume

Tape volume is decreasing, that´s a thing to keep an eye too.

TANOS Analytics – Market Tape Volume

VOL
It´s flatland united across the charts. And It´s sad, very sad.

TANOS Market Gauge – Vol dashboard

EURO & The Dollar
This tale is a funny one, this week I will only share the CoTs because the idea was explained last week.
The euro longs are increasing a tone every week, bare in mind that at It´s current level there are a massive trendline down.

TANOS Analytics – CoT dashboard

Dollar longs are decreasing and DXY actually looks very weak.

TANOS Analytics – CoT dashboard
DXY & EURUSD

US10Y yield
One of me most important things to keep an eye is the US10Y yield.
Usually the US10Y preludes the SP500. This puppy looks It wants to go down.

US10Y yield

Another Notes

Sentiment, a bag of mixed feelings

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

JXY/VIX Vs SP500 is indicating a SP500 total collapse.

Risk appetite gauge

Commodities to stocks ratio at a point that can breakout.

Commodities to stocks ratio

Interesting Articles
Very nice reading about TIPs
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1280401374199427073.html?refreshed=yes

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR,CAD cash rates
– USD Retail sales and Jobs data
– CNY Industrial prod
– EUR Industrial prod

6 – 10 July Trading week prep

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
Its hard not to FOMO in this market, everything goes up. This market seems relentlessness and no one can bring it down.
I have been wondering if remaining on the side lines is the right move.
Buying at this level feels like I have a 19 on blackjack and I am screaming “hit me”, It´s not nice odds to play with.

It´s hard to stay on the side line waiting, watching and not taking part. In the end I feel this will end up badly. When, I dont know.

Been coding a lot, trying some new stuff out and automating a lot of server maintenance.
Started re-reading Orwell’s books, felt like I cloud take a lot from his dystopias.

Long $LVO and $AG

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    This just goes up and up. Bad news are good news. You the hell understands what´s going on.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Had a nice push early ion the week, finished weak and below key values
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Same from last week,grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I will keep looking for opportunities and setups.
I am not seeing any at the moment, just have to wait for them to come to me.

Meanwhile, will do more code stuff and probably start to plan a hosting migration for the blog.I want to provide more free content but my current host is very limited.

WTI
It´s moving in a awkward way. Moving up below the last trend line.
The inventories on WTI kept withdrawing and the prince didn’t flinch.
The 200 DMA keeps acting as a resistance.
The demand remains low, It´s a wait and see mood.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

Gold
Failed to close above the previous high. The technical setup is also bearish.
Several bearish divergences are triggering on the daily chart (red triangles).

Oanda Gold CFD daily

One thing to have in mind is the decoupling from the SP500 / Gold ratio correlations.
The ratio is moving towards bullish SP500 boosting the idea that gold need to consolidate a bit.

SPX / Gold Ratio
TANOS Analytics – Gold mean reversions

Also watching the XAUXAG for a trend break or continuation. In case of continuation, It can be huge for silver.

Oanda XAUAG CFD daily


SP500
The resistance on 3150 It´s proving hard to break.
It´s hard to have an opinion, despite my bias being bearish, I cant bring myself to short it.

Oanda CFD SP500 – daily

Bull / Bear line is showing indecision in the markets.

TANOS Market Gauge – SPX

Mean Reversion lines.

TANOS Analytics – SP500 mean reversions

For this week I will be looking into two signals for the SP500:
The correlation between ES1 futures volume and VIX settle ( I already talked about this a few weeks ago). It´s providing a bullish signal for the SP500 by providing a positive correlation to movement (VIX downtrend).

SP500 Volume Vs VIX Close

And SP500 2 day RSI is reaching oversold.

SP500 2D RSI

Dollar / Euro
This isn’t happening as fast as I though It would. Despite DXY keeps diving, the EURUSD and GBPUSD are holding in range. It´s a trade to keep watching.

Oanda EURUSD GBPUSD daily
TANOS Analytics – EURUSD mean reversion
TANOS Analytics – GBPUSD mean reversion

Shipping
I know I risk to sound like a broken record with this. This is going to be a very good trade once It starts moving to the right side. It´s a waiting game to buy of a trend reversal.
BDI keeps pumping.

https://stockcharts.com

Another Notes

Sentiment turned bearish. Despite SP500 and Nasdaq keep going to the moon. Investors are starting to be really bearish.

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment

Safe havens are moving sideways.

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens

Insiders sold massively during the past week.

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

–Nothing I felt worth sharing

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– USD ISM Manufacturing index
– CAD Jobs
– USD Jobs
– AUD Cash rate decision

29 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 – Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

From last week:
No new trades were added.
Still long $AG and $LVO.
Crazy news on covid19 cases across the world.

Apart from watching the markets I have been coding and re watching Sopranos, because why not, such a good show.
Take time to enjoy yourself. Markets can be very exhausting and Its easy to get burned-out.

Be aware that next week is a big week in the US because of the 4th of July, there will be a lot of ghost trading desks and low liquidity,stay safe.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    The spooz started to rollover, no damage was done yet, only the trend was broken.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Gold is starting to get interesting
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    DXY looks grim, more below.

Next Week:
For me, It will be another wait and see week.
What I will be looking:

FB
A lot of companies are pulling out of Facebook ads, the recent one is Pepsi.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/pepsi-facebook-ad-boycott
A huge part of Facebook´s revenue is based on ads, this might trigger a sell off.
Technically the chart looks fragile, if 203 breaks and window to fill the down gap opens.

Facebook daily chart

WTI
The trend in theory broke down, although the major support did not broke.
It can play as a text book retest of the brake down, I will wait for a close below support to confirm the price movement.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

CoT report is showing a huge spike down on the futures Open Interest.

TANOS CoT Dashboard – WTI

Gold
It´s the moment of truth for gold, it manages to close above the previous high or more consolidation is in order. A close above the previous high will trigger a lot of buying signals, stay tuned.

Oanda CFD – GOLD daily

One thing to pay attention, the GVZ is approaching It´s mean reversion. If it actually reverts this can be the buy signal a lot of people is waiting for.

TANOS Market Gauge – GOLD Dashboard


SP500
The Spooz is unstoppable, despite the trend being broken this means nothing until the first big support is broken, last time the support was instantly bought.
Zone to watch is the 0.38 fib level ~2935.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily

Approximately 60% of SP500 constituents are below the bull/bear line.

TANOS Market Gauge – SP500 Dashboard

CoT for SP500 futures had a huge spike down on Open Interest.

TANOS CoT Dashboard – SP500

SPY MTD has seen a massive cumulative outflows.

https://www.trackinsight.com/en/

Shipping and NATGAS
Freight rates have been rising since early June, check the Baltic Dry Index.

https://stockcharts.com

NATGAS is super cheap, despite the massive oversupply I do think It´s a great opportunity to buy. Bare in mind we are in the summer. Protect yourself against seasonality. If we have another lock down in the winter this can sky rocket.

Oanda CFD Natgas daily

Despite shipping stocks being slaughtered last week, the fundamentals are getting bullish by the day. I still don´t have positions on the stocks I mentioned, I am looking for a clear price reversal before diving in.

STNG & NAT daily charts

The Euro & The Dollar
This can be a very interesting thing, IF It actually happens.
The Euro (EURUSD) is setting up for what It looks to be a bull flag.
If this flag breaks up It can start a new EURUSD bull trend.

Oanda EURUSD daily

What this actually means for the dollar, the DXY is heavyweight on EURUSD.
This, associated with It´s technical setup can sink the dollar to new short term lows.

DXY daily chart

Another component of the DXY is the GBPUSD pair which recently broke down and rejected the retest of the support.

Oanda GBPUSD Weekly

Why all of this? Well, the EURGBP pair also know and BMW-Jaguar spread is a synthetic pair based on the spread between EURUSD and GBPUSD.
The pair is now on a very important level -0.90 which has been rejected consistently for a lot of time. If all the above plays accordingly, this can be a huge turn around for the bulls on the pair.

Oanda EURGBP daily

Special note for EURAUD and the correlation between the pair and the SP500.
They are correlated negatively, which means when SP500 goes up, the pair goes down and vice versa.
On a SP500 rollover and EUR strength the pair can sky rocket as It did in February.

Oanda EURAUD daily

Another Notes

Sentiment:

TANOS Market Gauge- Sentiment Dashboard

FX:

TANOS Market Gauge – FX Dashboard

Safe Havens:

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

Interesting Articles

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/platts-4-commodity-charts-watch-week-3

https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/06/24/ready-for-the-re-bal/

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1275589332955512839.html?refreshed=yes

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– PMIs
– USD Factory Orders and Jobs data
– Powell Testify

22 – 26 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
It wasn´t a trade week for me, I followed the plan on SP500.
Went short on the retest of the breakdown but the tape went against me and was a 5 point loss.
I am focused on coding as this isn´t my kind of market to trade. It´s too overvalued for me.
Taking the time to improve in other areas is good too and not trading is also a trade. Capital conservation is the key to be profitable.

Still long $AG and $LVO (Lyxor S&P 500 VIX Futures Enhanced Roll UCITS ETF – C-EUR).

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Started to turn early on the week but finished strong. I still believe the path of least resistance is down.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed above $1740 may be a good sign.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
The plan for next week is too watch SP500, Tanks,Miners and gold.
SP500 is trading like nothing is wrong in the world. Eventually reality will catch up, is just a matter of being prepared.
I want to keep accumulating volatility (LVO) and probably re-enter some miners. I am still looking into buying tankers but I am not seeing the bottom,yet.

Be aware of PMI numbers, market can swing violently.

WTI
$WTI failed to close above 0.38 Fibonacci. My plan is still not touching It.
It´s really hard to trade consciously the oil market the last few weeks, the trend is clearly up and I am not fighting it. Still on the side that $WTI is overvalued by at least $15. Inventories are still rising and the demand is still low.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly

Gold
I have a lot of strong opinions on the yellow metal. Things for short term are reaching a decision point, and I honestly think the path of least resistance is down.
I really don´t know how this will play out, SP500 can drop and gold can sky rocket or both can go down at the same time.
The fact is that for long term gold is poised to shine like the sun.
The pattern It is forming is a massive cup and handle.
Every drop between $1600-$1570 is a buy hand over fist.

Oanda CFD Gold daily & Weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Gold Dashboard


SP500
It´s kind of a stand off. Right now SP500 is on a no trade zone for me.
I am watching a break above or below the channel.
I am pretty vocal about saying SP500 is overvalued but trading it technically is basically gambling nowadays. So the trick is to watch the market mood and follow the trend. I am not saying I am buying If the channel breaks above, I am saying I am not shorting it.

Oanda CFD – SP500 daily & Weekly

Trade ranges are still below from where It is trading.

TANOS Analytics – SP500 trading zones

Miners
$GDX and $GDXJ just broke out last Friday and gold showed up for the party too.

GDX and GDXJ Milan stock exchange

I am eyeing a $GOLD and $BTG breakout from the current patterns to enter.

$GOLD & $BTG daily

VIX
I side with the guys that don´t find very useful to TA the VIX. But I do find very useful the signals It provides.
VIX term structure, provides de insight and demand for protection in the future.

http://vixcentral.com/

VIX spreads from #2 and #8 contract when below -2.5 usually provides signals for market tops.

VIX #2 & #8 spreads

VIX vs SP500 Futures volume correlation is been providing clear insights and direction. It is actually pointing out for a VIX correction down which can mean SP500 to go up.

TANOS Analytics – SPX Volume Vs VIX

Tankers
One thing to keep an eye related to tankers is the Baltic Dry Index which finished the week pretty strong.

stockcharts.com/

Both $STNG and $TNK are holding the support, lets see how they behave on the Monday opening.

$TNK and $STNG daily

Another Notes

Insiders selling massively

https://www.quiverquant.com
http://www.openinsider.com/

5YR Government CDS are increasing

http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/sovereign-cds/

Interesting Articles

A friend forward me this one, and It´s pretty good.
Martin Wolf: what trade wars tell us from ft.com

Events:
Monday
GBP – CBI Industrial Orders
CNY -CB Leading Index
EUR – Consumer Confidence
USD – Existing home sales

Tuesday
AUD – PMIs
JPY – PMIs
EUR – PMIs
GBP – PMIs
USD – PMIs / Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday
NZD – Rates decision
EUR – German Ifo / Belgian NBB Business Climate

Thursday
JPY – All Industries Activity
EUR – German Gfk Consumer
USD – Goods / GDP / Unemployment claims

Friday
JPY – Tokyo CPI
USD – PCE


15 – 19 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
A lot of action and literally going nowhere.
SP500 is still inside It´s pattern, the DXY hold 96 and gold hold $1680.
I didn´t place any trade, the market is too overbought to buy and too bullish to sell. No clear signals on direction in my opinion and the only opportunities I am seeing are mining stocks and tankers.

Still long gold (commodity) for long term and $AG.
Last week I told I would start accumulating volatility, It´s paying nicely already.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Last week retrace may be the beginning of something. Only the future tape will tell. In my head It makes sense to go lower
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, gold It´s having a hard time to break $1740 resistance It´s an important level to watch.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
This week I am not planing to trade much. I have a lot of stuff I have to do relate to coding and the market is very choppy. As I said above, too overpriced to buy, too bullish to sell.
Next week there will be a lot of economical data and rates decisions.
My attention is focused on:
– GBP
– Volatility (As an European I use LVO to track/trade it)
– Shipping /Tanker Stocks
– Airlines Stocks for pumps
– Mining Stocks

WTI
I still think WTI is overvalued. The fair price would probably be half from where It is right now due to supply / demand.
Technically It rejected and important level but the trend is not broken, yet.
The weekly close only proves indecision prevails on the market with a doji candle. Inventories are increasing a lot,again.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude Dashboard

Gold
Gold is at a very important level, a close above $1740 can be very bullish.
For me It´s a no trade range. It´s not fragile for a short but It´s not strong enough to long. The two weeks fail to close $1740 must be respected.
Between us I really hope for a dip on gold to buy more, paper and physical.

Oanda Gold CFD – daily & weekly


SP500
Whats a -6% decline from an almost 50% pump, It´s a retrace.
SP500 still is in range for bullish movements and the pattern is not broken.
A close above 3230 would be insanely bullish, a close below 2964 zone (zone because It´s a range of important levels, support, 30/180/YTD mean reversion) can be very bad and pave the path to $2800.
Watch the insane volumes on the dumps. Just incredible.

Oanda SP500 CFD – daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – SPX Dashboard

Airlines
Well, the plan is the plan and the plan exists to protect us from pain.
Last week the all Airlines sector got wrecked.
I believe this sector still have a lot of pain in the future but one thing is certain, a lot of money and opportunity will appear in this sector.
I will make sure I will be here waiting as an alligator.
Any retest of the lows is a buy with stops in place.

Air France & Lufthansa Daily

Miners
Miners are not for all investor s a lot of pain can be delivered before profits appear.
The two miners I track very closely are $AG and $GOLD. Both are having pretty good runs and the correlation with gold are uncanny. I am looking into adding more to $AG and create a new position in $GOLD. Lets see how Gold unfolds this week.

First Majestic & Barrick Gold daily

FX
All the FX space are very volatile, dozens of pip movements in several hours across all majors.
This is a time where mean reversion strategies shine. As you can see this levels are very important across all pairs.

TANOS Market Gauge – FX Dashboard

Another Notes
Safe Havens woken up to the SP500 drop and DXY regaining momentum.

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

C Street keeps selling

http://www.openinsider.com/charts

Market Sentiment, is turning full on bullish

TANOS Market Gauge – Market Sentiment Dashboard

Nasdaq100 movers, the volume on meme stocks and “robinhooders” stocks is amazing.

TANOS Market Gauge – Nasdaq100 Dashboard
TANOS Analytics

VIX Vs VSTOXX, take a moment to try to understand what this means. The appetite for protection in the US, far outpaces European markets. Market participants know hat something isn´t right.

TANOS Analytics

On a final note, this is scary for US pensioners. A lot of pension funds are below the 70% threshold.

Interesting Articles

The US economy stopped growing (it’s official) by: Paul Donovan

U.S. Set to Sanction Dozens of Tankers Over Venezuela-Iran Oil Trade

Events:
Monday
CNY – Industrial Prodcution / Retail Sales / Unemployment rate
JPY – Tertiary Industrial Activity
CAD – Manufacturing Sales
USD – Empire Man. Index

Tuesday
JPY – BOJ rates
CHF – SECO Forecasts
EUR – German CPI & WPI/ ZEW & German ZEW
GBP – Avg. Earnings Index / Unemployment Rate
USD – Retail Sales / Industrial Production / Powell


Wednesday
GBP – CPI / PPI
EUR – CPI
CAD – CPI
USD – Powell

Thursday
AUD – Jobs
CHF – Rates
GBP – Rates
USD – Philly Manufacturing Index/ Unemployment Claims

Friday
GBP – Retail Sales
CAD – Retail Sales
USD – Powell


8 – 12 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
It was an ok week full of mix feelings.

What worked:
Airlines: Air France and Lufthansa positions are now fully closed for some nice gains.

AG: Still long and strong.

TSLA: Things related to TSLA are very predictable, last week´s speculative play was a nice quick scalp.

GOLD: Started to rollover.

What didn´t work:
DXY / AUDUSD / USDCAD: DXY didn´t hold 98.
Monday morning It instantly invalidated both signals for AUDUSD and USDCAD.
The DXY weekness of last week was really the only story worth paying attention in the markets, despite Nasdaq new ATH.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Looks like SP500 doesn’t want to go down. It´s pointless to fight it, probably will retest ATH.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, It makes sense for gold to go down while SP500 goes higher.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
Despite my bias being bearish,I really don´t see a lot of clear as water plays for this week.
Probably markets will continue to rally, even though a correction was made on the unemployment rate, raising it +3% in the US.
I feel It´s the right time to step back and relax. Take a breather from the markets and seek new perspectives.

I will look into start accumulating VOL and watch the precious metals space carefully.

Crude
OPEC during this weekend decided to extend cuts one more month.
The WTI up channel looks really strong, 6 green weekly candles are no joke.
For me, the fundamentals don´t match the price, price should be cut in half.
There’s no point to start shorting WTI if there aren´t any signals of weakness in price. The plan for WTI is to keep watching for clear signals.

Oanda CFD WTI daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The yellow metal is retracing after a huge spike in price. I this drop as organic and the market bull sentiment is helping and accelerating the decline. I look at this as a buy the dip opportunity.
There are no doubts gold will be much higher in the future.

Oanda CFD Gold weekly & monthly
TANOS Market Gauge – Gold dashboard


SP500
SP500 clearly is unstoppable, or it seems to be as long as the FED keeps supporting it.
The FED will start reducing the amount of market buys they are currently doing and this may cause a sentiment shift, I am paying attention to that.

Things seem to be escalating in the US, riots, trade war with china, relations with Europe and corona virus. I think it´s just a matter of time until SP500 catches up to the real economy. What do I mean by this, It´s not the time to short, yet.

I got a feeling that this Sunday SP500 futures will make a fake out, It will drop on unemployment rate correction news and make a V shape on the cash session open on Monday. Pay attention to that.

There are zero clear signals of any SP500 weakness, despite there are a lot of bearish bias. Remember that decide not to trade, is also a trade. Don´t FOMO in / out. Trade your plan.

Oanda CFD daily & weekly
TANOS Market Gauge – SP500 dashboard

SP500 2day RSI is a very good indicator for in this market conditions.
Quick overbought oversold signals intraday are very reliable.

SPX 2 day RSI

Last week an important trend golden cross happened, that´s one to keep an eye too.

SPX EMA21 VS EMA 200

Airlines
Not much to say, the plan worked nicely. Got out on the previous high.
It may pump further but profits are profits and the plan is the plan.
If they dip to lows again, the plan is to rinse and repeat.

Air France & Lufthansa daily

Shipping
I risk sounding like a crazy guy keep saying I like tankers.
Last week I said If the trend is not broken, the path of least resistance was up.
The trend just broke and I am still bullish, wheres why.
Despite Crude keeps going up. Tanker companies, specially STNG and TNK have their order books fully filled until the end of the year. They are cash positive and great companies.
I am looking into a clear buy signal.

Teekay & Scorpio daily
EMA Shipping screener

YEN & DXY
I have to be honest, I wasn´t expecting so much weakness on Yen and Dollar.
The charts look horrible.
DXY must hold 95 to remain in trend.
Yen, 0.0091190 is a pretty key level.
Will be watching this two very closely.

DXY & Yen daily

Another Notes
Safe Havens and rolling over

TANOS Market Gauge – Safe Havens Dashboard

EU Major Indexes broke to their 5 year mean reversion

TANOS Market Gauge – EU Futures

Insider Sentiment, main street keeps buying, C Street keeps selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

Market Sentiment, is turning full on bullish

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment dashboard

AUDJPY is a very good risk measure for risk appetite, if we overlay SPX

AUDJPY risk measure

Interesting Articles

The Global art market:
https://resources.masterworks.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Citi-Art-Market-Report-2019.pdf

Events:
Monday
JPY – Final GDP / Economic Sentiment Index
EUR – Industrial Production m/m / Sentix Investor Sentiment / Lagard Speach

Tuesday
CHF – Unemployment rate
JPY – Prelim. machine tools m/m
EUR – Final employment change
USD – NFIB small business Index / Jolts jobs openings

Wednesday
JPY – Core machinery orders
AUD – Westpac Consumer sentiment
CNY – Core PPI / PPI /New loans
USD – CPI / Core CPI / FOMC

Thursday
JPY – BSI Man. Index
EUR – EUROGROUP meetings
USD – Core PPI/ PPI / Unemployment claims

Friday
GBP – GDP m/m / Man. Production m/m / Index of services
EUR – Industrial Production m/m
USD – UoM Consumer Sentiment


1 – 5 June 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/
From last week:
Things are improving on the mental side. I was able to keep focus and get stuff done.
It was definitely the right move to get back to what I usually do. Trading my plans and looking ahead for next moves.
I managed to fix my algo bug, this is also good for you if you use the free signals
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

Last week plays are doing nicely AG, Air France (got stopped at 4.13€ with profit), Lufthansa really great pumps.
I am raising the stoploss for a nice and safe cushion, profits are profits and this market have crazy swings.

TNK and STNG are also doing good, despite on the last two trading days they retraced a bit on a big Oil move. Stops are in place above entry point , not really worried.
I will talk more about the positions below.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Looks like SP500 doesn’t want to go down. It´s pointless to fight it
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Retracing, It makes sense for gold to go down while SP500 goes higher.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, specially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
This week is going to be insane! A lot of economic data coming through and more earnings.
On the earnings side, I will keep an eye on Zoom, American Eagle and Slack.

Earnings 1 June 2020

This week EUR, AUD and CAD have cash rates decisions , World Manufacturing / Services PMIs. China already reported this Sunday with a miss 50.6 on Man. PMI.

Be prepared for a lot of action and crazy swings.

Crude
A hell of a move. Really strong close on Friday, I wasn’t expecting it at all, to be fair I was expecting WTI to roll over on rejection of $28.64 as resistance and 30dMR.
If WTI manages to close above $30.60 this can be really bullish for WTI.
As per the other weeks, I am not trading crude because Its really hard to read the action for me at the moment. I don’t have a clear view of whats going to happen. On a side note, inventories increased, again despite all the production cuts.

Oanda WTI CFD daily & weekly chart
TANOS Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

Gold
The sentiment is very gold bullish, but I think momentum is escaping the gold markets and going back to equities. To be fair, gold needs a retrace too. It´s an opportunity to buy more.
Gold rejected the retest on the breakdown line, seems to be forming a classic rising wedge pattern. I am not trading the downside, but I am looking to buy the upside, preferably on the green box.

Oanda Gold GFD daily & weekly

One thing I like to watch too are mean reversion lines, normal mean and geometric mean. They provide very consistent information about trend and possible extend moves. I use them in various timeframes but I found best results with 5+ years or last 365 days.
On gold for the last 365 days chart we are retesting the breakdown of the mean reversion lines. Which in my opinion supports the downside.

TANOS Ticker plots – Gold

On a very special note, this week can be a very volatile market for gold and silver with 3 very important cash rate decisions.

Silver
I don’t usually talk about silver and as an European, investing in silver doesn’t bring me much benefits.
But this recent moves on the market are making me very interested in trading silver as a commodity and silver miners (already playing AG).
Silver had gold crosses across a bunch of pairs. Will look for a pull back to add a position.

EMA Scanner for silver
Oanda CFD Silver daily & weekly

SP500
It definitely wants to retest at least ~3100.
It´s really a challenge to predict where the spuz will go, a lot of forces are pushing it to go higher and higher despite the world economy is crashing and burning. The level to watch is ~2964 the high of 09 march 2020 for downside and and a clean and close break above 3100.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily & weekly

On a side note, I like to watch trading ranges and the 3000 points zone is clearly a line in the sand for the spuz.

TANOS Ticker Plots – ES1

SP500 is also testing the 365 days mean reversion lines.

TANOS Ticker Plots – ES1

Airlines
Despite getting stopped on Air France, I will look into getting back in.
The market mood and the abundance of money in the EU to bailout everyone will pump it again.
Lufthansa, still strong. The stop is at ~8.38€. The fail to close above 9.340€ is a little bit worrying but I will evaluate more on Monday´s market open.

Air France KLM & Lufthansa

Shipping
Being highly correlated with crude, in order to hold this stocks you need “strong hands”. I believe crude is overvalued and this stocks will shine in the near future. Both have impeccable books and are profitable. It´s just a matter of time. Both their trends are still up, If the trend is not broken, the path with least resistance is still up.

Scorpio and Teekay daily charts

CAD & AUD
Last week DXY got destroyed and AUD and CAD pairs raised and shinned all week.
This week both CAD and AUD will decide cash rates and a lot of volatility can be brought to the FX market. If DXY holds 98 CAD and AUD pairs should loose their momentum.

DXY daily chart

CAD and AUD currency indexes are rejecting their strong resistances supporting the DXY theory.

AUD and CAD currency indexes daily

AUDUSD looking like a nice double top( bear pattern, short) and USDCAD looking like a sweet falling wedge (bull pattern, long) and hold the trend line which is very important here.

AUDUSD & USDCAD daily charts

As I have been saying, I am trying to play CAD and AUD VS JPY in correlation to SP500. SP500 being on a raging bull move, this idea is kind of shelved until SP500 supports the theory. The play at the moment is clearly vs USD if the signals work.

AUDJPY and CADJPY daily charts

TSLA
This a very speculative trade. I dont intend to take a position on TSLA, but I think the market will correlate the success of the Space X launch with Tesla and pump the stock. It may retest the 869 resistence, if it goes to ATH is just nuts.

Tesla daily chart
TANOS TIcker Plot – TSLA

Another Notes

Sentiment in American markets are returning to bull mode as Europe is getting bearish

TANOS Market Gauge – Sentiment

Insiders transactions, more selling

http://www.openinsider.com/

BTCUSD, if this continuation pattern brakes up, It´s big if true

BTCUSD Coinbase

Interesting Articles

In gold we trust 2020 report:
https://ingoldwetrust.report/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2020-Compact-Version-english.pdf

New series of Grant Williams hummminars.
https://ttmygh.com/hmmminars/

Events:
Monday
JPY – Man. PMI
EUR – Man. PMI
GBP – Man. PMI
CAD – Man. PMI
USD – Man. PMI / ISM Man. PMI

Tuesday
AUD – Cash Rates
CHF – Man. PMI

Wednesday
AUD – GDP
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – Germnay Unemployment
GBP – Services PMI
EUR – Unemployment rate
USD – Non – Farm employment changes / Services PMI / ISM Non Man. PMI / Factory orders
CAD – Cash Rates

Thursday
AUD – Restail sales / AIG Services
EUR – Services PMI
GBP – Construction PMI
EUR – Cash Rates
USD – Unemplyment claims

Friday
GBP – Gfk consumer sentiment
EUR – Germany factory orders
CAD – Jobs data
USD – Jobs data