20 – 24 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Well, another week same stuff. Gold, SPX, WTI, earnings and a special eye on commodities and VIX.


GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
Buy it, long term perspective, start accumulating.
My plan is to start buying on the orange box on small sizes and make full buys if it touches the green box.
Bare in mind I have been buying gold for a few weeks so my average entry is much lower.

SP500
Well, It’s mooning.
Don’t fight the tape.
I honestly don’t feel the SPX as more fire, though It keeps on pumping.
So I will just sit idle in my hands waiting for signals I can understand .
It´s above bull/bear line and triggered a bull MACD cross.

WTI
It´s holding strong. Inside the ascending triangle.
The target from the ratio stills $74 and as the target from the ascending triangle breakout. If the SPX keeps on pumping expect oil to pump too.

VIX
Many people are against doing TA on the VIX, well what I like to do is to use the VIX to map the market

Events:
Monday
JPY – Revised Industrial Production

Tuesday
JPY – BOJ rates
GBP – Unemployment rates
EUR – German ZEW & EUR ZEW
CAD – Manufacturing sales
Earnings: NFLX,IBM

Wednesday
CAD – CPI & Rates decision
Earnings: JNJ

Thursday
AUD – Jobs
EUR – rates decision
USD – CB Leading Index
AUD – Flash PMIs
Earnings: INTC,PG,SBUX

Friday
EUR / JPY / GBP – Flash PMIs
Earnings: AABV,AXP,SYF

13 – 17 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Crazy start for 2020.
The earnings season is starting and some hard truths may come to light.(I will share the companies I will follow for earnings)
War and impeachment are still swinging news left and right and markets react violently so take care and be bold. You can only be right if you take the trade.
That being said, engrave in your mind, you don’t know what you don’t know, act accordingly.


GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
Buy it, long term perspective, start accumulating.
My plan is to start buying on the orange box on small sizes and make full buys if it touches the green box.
Bare in mind I have been buying gold for a few weeks so my average entry is much lower.

SP500
This is a very tough cookie.
I don’t have any sell signals.
It’s above the bull/bear line, It’s on the upper bollinger band channel, It’s above the cloud, and looks that the trend is strong as hell.
On the other hand, It´s overbought, and earnings season might bring some instability to the market

WTI
This stuff looks bullish to me, I am still playing this as a catch up to the SP500.
And the all technical setup looks pretty bullish too, if the triangle pops It can go to $74.
Supporting this, WTI / SPY ratio prices WTI at $74 too.

Events:
Monday
GBP – Manufacturing Production

Tuesday
CNY – USD Denominated Balance
JPY – Economic watchers sentiment
USD – CPI
USD – CORE CPI
Earnings: C, WFC,DAL

Wednesday
JPY – Prelim. machinery tools
JPY – Prelim. machinery tools
EUR – Industrial production
USD – CORE PPI
USD – PPI
USD – Empire state manufacturing Index
USD – FOMC Govs speaking
US – China Trade deal phase one signing
Earnings: BAC,GS,BLK

Thursday
EUR – German final CPI
CAD – ADP Non farm employment change
USD – Core sales retail
USD – Retail sales
USD – Philly fed manufacturing index
USD – Unemployment claims
USD – Business inventories
USD – NAHB Housing Index
EUR – ECB Lagarde speaks
Earnings: BNY,MS

Friday
CNY – GDP
CNY – Industrial Production
CNY – Unemployment rate
GBP – Retails sales
EUR – Final CPI
EUR – Core CPI
USD – Industrial production
USD – UoM data
USD – Jolts jobs

A importância das correlações

Para mim, o factor de correlação é um dos mais substimados.

Durante as nossas sessões de trading, é normal assumirmos algumas posições longas / curtas em diferentes ativos sem nos preocuparmos em saber qual a sua correlação.

Como qualquer lição aprendida na vida de um trader, a mesma veio com um custo. 

Tinha setups quase perfeitos para negociar dois pares de FX, EURCHF e USDPLN.

EURCHF, estavamos numa altura de que o apetite para o risco era muito grande na zona euro, tinha feito o bounce perfeito na zona de suporte e estava dentro de um rising wedge no segundo impulso. Eram as circunstâncias quase perfeitas para ir longo. 

USDPLN, o zloty estava em caida a semanas, estava numa linha que parecia ter encontrado um suporte. Face a força que o Euro estava a ter esta semana, parecia uma excelente oportunidade para ir curto USDPLN

Ou seja no meio disto tudo, fui longo EURCHF e curto USDPLN com lotes completos pois a confiança era muita.

Poucas horas após colocar o trade, tive uma reunião de trabalho que não me permitiu estar a acompanhar as posições. Quando consegui voltar aos monitores apercebi-me que as minhas posições tinham atingido o stop loss. Fiquei um bocado perplexo pois na minha cabeça tinha os setups perfeitos. Foi então que a comentar com uns amigos que um deles me apresentou a famosa correlação entre ativos. 

O EURCHF esta inversamente correlacionado com o USDPLN. E o que é que isto significa? Bem, ao ir longo EURCHF e curto USDPLN, as duas posições movimentavam-se no mesmo sentido, ou seja o meu risco dobrou sem eu ter isso em conta. 

Foi então que me recomendaram o livro:

https://www.amazon.com/Intermarket-Analysis-Profiting-Relationships-Trading/dp/0471023299

As correlações são de facto muito importantes e usadas de forma inteligente podem ser mais uma ferramenta no cinto de um trader.

Por exemplo, o par EURAUD esta inversamente correlacionado com o SPX. Isto pode ser uma forma inteligente de usarmos alavancagem para negociar o SPX, pois existem várias corretoras com CFDs de forex.

Deixo aqui um exemplo de um quadro de correlação forex. 

A leitura é feita tendo em conta que:

valor entre 0 e 1, os pares movimentam-se no mesmo sentido.

valor entre 0 e -1, os pares movimentam-se no sentido inverso

Se quiserem consultar em realtime
https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools/fx-correlations-table/tool-details

6 – 10 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
Well, what a crazy start for 2020 right?
I am exercising one of the most difficult skills I had to require to trade. Patience, patience to see the market move without doing nothing.
I learned by playing with fire I should only trade in an environment I know.
It´s not news that I think the SP500 is toppy and some stocks are on hyperbolic mode. A retrace is needed. I am not saying the “R” word (recession) but a pullback is due. That being said, with the war song playing, PMIs contracting again I don’t feel I have a clear read on the market so I am just observing.
That being said I am still long GOLD and OIL/Energy.

GOLD
Repeating last few weeks warning:
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures. This is breaking out hard, a pullback might happen which I will use to buy gold sovereigns.

Energy / Oil
Same recommendations from the previous weeks. WTI will chase the SP500.
WTI is breaking up hard and the fear of war might pump it to the moon.
To be honest I don’t know when will be the right time to dive in if you are not already in because this ship as sailed and is going fast.

SP500
Well this is a though one.
Last friday to war fears the SP500 dropped more than 1% on the European session, but when the cash session started on the US the dip buyers came with a vengeance.
To be honest I dont know how this is going to play out. a bear divergence is forming and a MACD bear cross triggered. If a close below the trendline happens it might trigger some major shorts.
It´s going to be a week to exercise patience.
IG Weekend trading prices the Dow 66.5 points lower.

EURAUD
The setup looks pretty self explanatory and It´s negative correlated with the SP500

Events:
Monday
JPY – Manufacturing PMI
CNY – Caixin Services PMI
EUR – Services PMI
EUR – Sentix consumer confidence
USD – Services PMI

Tuesday
EUR- CPIs
USD – ISM Non Manufacturing PMI
USD – Factory Orders

Wednesday
JPY – Consumer Confidence
EUR – Germany factory orders
USD – ADP Non farm employment

Thursday
EUR – German Industrial Production
EUR – Unemployment rate
USD – Unemployment rate


Friday
EUR – French Industrial production
EUR – Italy Industrial production
CAD – Employment change
CAD – Unemployment rate
USD – Average Hourly Earnings
USD – Non farm employment change
USD – Unemployment rate

30 Dec 2019 – 03 Jan 2020 Trading week preparation

The content is now separated between markets/folders I track. It´s easier for me and I hope it´s easier clear for you too.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
It´s a holiday week so my trading will be restricted and almost risk exposed free.
This time I will try share a few ideias I am monitoring for 2020.

GOLD
Repeating last week warning:
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures.

USD
DXY looks ready to die, eyeing low 90s.
A new argument making the mix shows EM countries are prefering to emit debt in EUR then USD. This is a big shift. See files (https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAId-LpqI9xjwJ5V_-yg507q94nZSxvOC9hrYjQCNj1XJrMhIYk4).
This for the all year of 2020 can be very bullish to EUR and commodities.
Commodities being what I am focusing the most.
Playing commodities via Futures or CFDs can be expensive so I am using ETFs such us $MOO, $WOOD, $GLD, $COPX and $JJG.

Energy / Oil
A huge squeeze of this sector is about to happen. The market is rotating nicely to value and XLE is preparing to shine.
WTI looks like to want to play catch up with SPX.
I am placing a few bets on some coal stocks too, they look beatdown. At some point some relief is due to happen because the cash balance and assets on those companies are pretty good.

Market
I already said this a few times. The market looks toppy to me but as a trader you have to be able to shift and change you opinion based on what you see/get.
So I am not saying I am a bull/bear. Some stocks look toppy but there are a few sectors that look prime to shine, I believe shipping is one of them. IMO2020 is going to kick in, and historically when chaos enters the shipping markets, It rallies hard. For this, check the BALTIC Dry index for more clues https://stockcharts.com/acp/?s=%24BDI

Some small bets across the market I am looking: $WISA, $EROS, $ACB, $PLUG, $IDEX

Events:
Monday
CHF – KOF Economic Barometer
USD – Chicago PMI

Tuesday
USD – CB Consumer confidence
CNY – Manufacturing PMI
CNY – Non Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday

Thursday
CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
EUR – Manufacturing PMI
CAD – Manufacturing PMI
USD – Manufacturing PMI
GBP – Manufacturing PMI
USD – Jobs

Friday
USD – ISM PMI
USD – FOMC
CHF – Manufacturing PMI

23 – 27 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
It´s a holiday week so my trading will be restricted and almost risk exposed free

SPX
Between us, It´s extended. A pullback is due despite I am being a bull or a bear.
If you pair the SPX charts with a distribution Wyckoff chart you will see some similarities, we are at UTAD phase.


EURGBP
So I am looking to long EURGBP. It looks like it wants the break the downside channel. Williams Alligator It´s almost biting. And It bounced on a nice support.
Now that all the brexit shenanigans are done, I am looking for the pound to retrace some of the crazy gains.

GOLD
I can’t say this enough enough times. Buy gold, physical, ETFs,Gold Miners Stocks you name it. Gold looks bullish across all charts Technicals and Macro.
I am long $GOLD with full size and looking into some other miners and gold futures.

Energy / Oil
A huge squeeze of this sector is about to happen. The market is rotating nicely to value and XLE is preparing to shine.
WTI looks like to want to play catch up with SPX

Events:
Monday
CAD – GDP
USD – Durable Goods
USD- Home sales

Tuesday
USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday

Thursday
USD – Job claims
JPY – Unemployment rate

Friday
CHF – Credit Suisse Economic Expectations

A minha biblioteca: “A bolsa para iniciados” de Fernando Braga de Matos

Em pleno século 21 e com uma velocidade e facilidade de acesso a informação, eu continuo a achar que se estamos a procura de informação em concreto, os livros são a nossa melhor opção.

Aparte de todo o conhecimento empírico que pudemos absorver, conseguimos ainda absorver a experiência de quem o escreve.
Assim, com este primeiro post, vou partilhar alguns livros da minha biblioteca e explicar o que significaram para mim.

O livro “A bolsa para iniciados”, foi a minha primeira introdução ao mercado da bolsa. Como podem ver pela imagem, reli o livro várias vezes, tomei notas, marquei várias passagens.
É o livro que recomendo a todos os amigos e conhecidos que querem começar esta aventura no mercado da bolsa.

Sei que o autor tem outro livro mais avançado, mas ai já preferi ir para “outras praias” escritas em inglês, que partilharei num próximo post.

9 – 13 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
The market is still doing crazy stuff and reacting violently to news and Trump tweets. Because It’s the end of the year I like to reduce all my exposure to the markets. I like to spent my holidays carefree.
That being said. Here is what I am looking at:

SPX
Well It was a weird week. A full round trip no ATH town. Will watch what happens on the red box

USDJPY
JPY Futures look strong. On the daily, it broke out from a falling wedge. On the weekly it closed as a bullish engulf
USDJPY broke down of a rising wedge and is forming a H&S. On the weekly it closed as a bearish Engulf.

Events:
Monday
JPY Final GDP numbers & Economy watchers
EUR Sentix Investors Confidence

Tuesday
JPY Prelim machine orders / BSI Manufacturing Index
EUR Industrial Production numbers / EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
GBP GDP numbers / Manufacturing Production

Wednesday
FOMC
JPY Core Machinery Orders

Thursday
CHF SECO Forecasts
EUR CPI/PPI
US CPI/PPI
JPY Tenkan Index

Friday
US Retail sales

2 – 6 Dec 2019 Trading week preparation

FX Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/fx-mean-reversion-1ho16vdkgm0x6nq?live

Futures Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/futures-mean-reversion-1hzj4o9p9vm34pw?live

PSI20 Mean Reversion table
https://infogram.com/pt-mean-reversion-1h7z2lqzwv5g6ow?live


More content:
– Market Gauge report
– CoT
– Crypto
– Momentum
– Moving Averages Progression Tables


https://www.dropbox.com/sh/42emkdzpvw867i0/AAAHA9ljhEBgHkX63xNnWtesa?dl=0

What I am looking at:
I really don’t like to trade major economic news, the market does crazy stuff so I prefer to wait and do my trades after the news.

SPX
Started to rollover, I would like to see a pullback to the 30dMR
The week is packed with economical data, it will be a bumpy ride

SPX500 CFD from Oanda

STOX5X0 (https://www.tradingview.com/x/IOHmowoa/)
Same as SPX, might accelerate if germany Manufacturing PMI goes bananaz

DXY / EURUSD / GBPUSD
Euro implied vol has been dead for a while.
GBP looks ready to test May´s highs
DXY looks ready to die on the weekly close with a doji candle

DXY Index

NOS.LS
The support is holding but I would like to see the gap below filled

NOS.LS

FB
Friday closed looked weak a little consolidation wouldn’t hurt

FB

WTI / NATGAS / XLE
All energy comp got slaughtered on friday, I am watching closely for a bounce and being an OPEC week might help

Events:
Monday
Euro zone , China, US, JPY and GBP Manufacturing PMIs

Tuesday

Wednesday
Euro zone , China, US, JPY and GBP Services PMIs
US ADP Non Farm Jobs

Thursday
EUR Final Employment numbers
US Jobs numbers
OPEC

Friday
OPEC
US Jobs numbers

O que é um CoT report?

Um CoT report (commitment of traders) é um relatório com dados consolidados das posições em um determinado ativo até ao final de um dado período.

Esta informação pode ser encontrada no site da CTFC.

A CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) é a entidade reguladora para contratos de futuro dos estados unidos. 

Podem aceder a informação através do site: 

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

Vamos usar o exemplo do CoT para o contrato de futuro de WTI (CL).

Podem ver o CoT através deste link: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/petroleum_sof.htm

Podem ver que existem um conjunto de campos extensos, de forma a poder perceber / ler o CoT vou tentar explicar o que significa cada campo:

Open Interest – É o total de todos os contratos negociados para um período de tempo (Futuros e Opções)

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Longs – Total de contratos longos negociados por produtores / traders de contratos físicos / Utilizadores industriais

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Shorts – Total de contratos curtos negociados por produtores / traders de contratos físicos / Utilizadores industriais

Swap Dealer Longs – Total de contratos longos negociados por um dealer de swaps que usa o mercado de futuros para fazer um hedge ao risco associado aos swaps

Swap Dealer Shorts – Total de contratos curtos negociados por um dealer de swaps que usa o mercado de futuros para fazer um hedge ao risco associado aos swaps  

Swap Dealer Spreads – Spreads entre contratos longos / curtos  

Money Manager Longs – Total de contratos longos negociados por um CTA (Commodity trading advisor) / CPO (Commodity pool operator) ou um fundo não registado no CFTC

Money Manager Shorts – Total de contratos curtos negociados por um CTA (Commodity trading advisor) / CPO (Commodity pool operator) ou um fundo não registado no CFTC

Money Manager Spreads – Spreads entre contratos longos / curtos   

Other Reportable Longs – Total de contratos longos negociados que não se enquadram nas classificações anteriores 

Other Reportable Shorts – Total de contratos curtos negociados que não se enquadram nas classificações anteriores  

Other Reportable Spreads – Spreads entre contratos longos / curtos     

Total Reportable Longs – Número total de contratos longos negociados

Total Reportable Shorts – Número total de contratos curtos negociados

Non Reportable Longs – Total de contratos longos negociados sem classificação  

Non Reportable Shorts – Total de contratos curtos negociados sem classificação    

Qual é a importância destes relatórios?

Bem, como trader/investidor estamos no negócio de tentar prever movimentações do mercado. De forma a perceber essas tendências, ajuda perceber onde o smart money está posicionado, assim como os produtores ( no caso de uma commodity). 

É como se fosse mais uma ferramenta na nossa bancada que nos ajuda a remover algumas incertezas. Claro que é preciso ter em conta que esta informação não reflete movimentações diárias nos contratos a que são adjacentes. Refletem posições de longa duração ou movimentações brutas de sentimento.

Em um post (aqui) anterior do blog, expliquei como extrair o relatório de uma forma mais simplificada e para excel.