23 – 27 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
It´s that time of the year, a lot of research is coming out for 2021, been reading a lot on that, especially FX. Living and trading in Europe and using dollars to trade can have a lot of impact on my returns.

So, I am focusing on adapting my trade and finding new ways to be less dependant on dollars. By doing this I am also finding a lot of nice ETFs listed on EU based on EUR.

The positions are still the same, $AG, $RGR, $SWBI, and GOLD (CFD).
$AG and Gold are doing fine.
The guns trade is very speculative and didn´t pay off, yet, I hope. Both are trading near my entry point.

Next Week:
Last Friday we had OPEX and the market rolled off.
I don´t think this was a massive event, It was just a regular OPEX with a pinch of salt that a lot of options were bought/sold because of the US elections, traders wanted protection.
SP500 might drop a few points but will see a buy the dip event.

This week we also have the Flash PMIs results across the world.

I hope volatility comes back, I will probably go long VIX via $LVO.MI

All eyes on the dollar and commodities.

WTI
Stocks have been rising for two weeks in a row, and demand has been decreasing.
OPEC outcome was sort of “meh”, I guess the market was expecting heavy cuts.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

Technically we are reaching a heavy sell zone. I believe WTI has no business being at this level, but It´s hard to argue with the market.
I haven´t trade WTI for a long, long time and maybe now It´s the time to come back and start dipping my toes on a short, Let´s see how it reacts to the resistance.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Gold
I really want to see Gold going to $1850 – $1800 but I don´t think I will see it.
Maybe if stocks roll over a bit, gold breaks but every dip is being bought hard.
I won´t build a new position on Gold (CFD) at his level for now, but maybe I will buy the gold miners ETF. By buying miners, I sort of guarantee my participation in a new gold rally.

Market Gauge Gold dashboard

Reasons to be alert on gold bullishness:
– $GVZ (Gold volatility) dropped hard, which may raise a few flags.
– We are far, far away from mean reversion levels.
– The dollar took a beating and maybe is due for a bounce, pushing gold to head lower.
– Gold futures contracts, the front month is trading at a premium relative to long-term ones.

Oanda GOLD CFD daily
Market Gauge Gold futures

SP500
There´s not much to say, technically It looks is due to a pullback.
Long-term chart outlook, maybe forming an inverted head and shoulders.
Overall It looks bullish.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Dollar
Bears are showing no love for the dollar and the Fed ain´t helping.
A lot of market outlooks for 2021 are pointing to as much as a 20% drop on the dollar, which is pretty scary for non-US traders.

COT report shows, asset managers are staking shorts:

COT DXY dashboard

Despite all of this bearishness, nothing goes down on a straight line, and the dollar looks due for a big bounce.

DXY daily

I am keeping an eye on this, I want to buy dips on commodities, especially commodity swaps ETF such as $EXXY.
Another thing to keep an eye on is DXY/SP500 ratio, looks primed for a dollar bounce.

DXY / ES1! daily

Other Notes

The sentiment is massively bullish.

Market Gauge Sentiment

Insiders keep on selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/

Tanker rates are going down.

https://fearnpulse.com/

NYSEFANG looking for a retest on the breakdown.

NYSE FANG index

Interesting Articles

https://horizonkinetics.com/wp-content/uploads/Q3-CVALUE-Review_FINAL.pdf?mc_cid=b2fb850a05&mc_eid=2fd1a72551

https://think.ing.com/reports/2021-fx-outlook-back-on-track-report/

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World Flash PMIs
– USD CB Consumer confidence / Richmond Man. Index / Durable goods
– JPY Tokyo CPI
– EUR GER GDP / Ifo Climate / GFK Consumer climate

16 – 20 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week.
The US drama election keeps ongoing, Trump still claims the win, and cracks on Biden´s ranks are cracking.
Behind this, markets are rallying and posing to make new highs.

I got duped on last week’s volatility trade and had to cut short the losses for a tiny profit.

Still long and strong $AG and Gold CFD since what feels like forever.

New positions on $RGR and $SWBI are not for cardiacs, they move insanely intraday. Still holding and above water.

Most of you know I live in Portugal since last week we entered another severe lockdown so I am trying to keep busy at home without burning myself out. I just discovered this site.

https://hq.ssrn.com/rankings/Ranking_display.cfm?TRN_gID=10

It´s a free repository for research papers for dozens of different areas. I just print them and seat on the sofa reading at my own pace.
Or just binge watch some TV-show, whatever is rocking my boat at the time.

Next Week:
More earnings, not just earnings but a lot of Chinese ADRs earnings.
China is posting a record recovery, let´s see how ADRs behave.
I personally don’t like to trade Chinese stocks, especially big names such as $BABA, $NIO, $JD, etc. They are too crazy and I can correlate the Tesla cult with the Chinese tech cult.

Earnings Whispers

More “noise” is coming to the markets this week, I am alert and trying to clear my mind in a way I can see past the fog. SP500 will probably do a new record high because of the rotation between Growth / Value.

Being patient is also trading, and not to trade due to uncertainty is also ok.
The urge to jump on the train is real, I have to persuade myself almost every day to stick to what I can understand and just play what I foresee.

WTI
WTI is still trading inside the “magic” channel.
Last week´s rejection of the $42 level and the following 3 red candles is pointing that market participants think WTI gone up too fast.

Oanda WTI CFD daily


Current price is diverging from the current futures curve, long term #6 and #12 contracts are trading at a positive premium.

Market Gauge WTI futures curve

My bias on WTI is still bearish, the demand isn´t there and we probably are heading to another massive lockdown worldwide.
We also have OPEC this week, some news may rock this market.

Gold
Gold seems very fragile, and somethings that´s throwing me off is that despite all this chaos, gold isn´t moving, a lot.
This probably indicates that people are ok living in chaos, and It´s not time to buy more gold, yet.
Technically It looks weak, and a revisit on the desired $1800 level seems very likable.

Oanda CFD Gold daily


Another thing to consider on the bear side, Gold #6 and #12 futures are trading at a negative spread related to the current contract, and $GVZ is below Its mean reversion.

Market Gauge Gold futures curve
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


Long term I am bullish on gold, I want to add to my paper and physical bags.
At $1850 – $1800, I will definitely start adding to my positions.


SP500
Well, There’s nothing much to say, we probably are going to see new highs.
The rotation between Growth/Value is adding new fuel to this rocket.
Technically the chart looks like trash, It´s a parabolic move with some pretty insane candles.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily


What I learned this year about stocks:
-forget the reason
-forget logic
-forget stock valuations.
Stocks only go up and buy every single dip.

I don´t do this, I don´t understand this, that´s why I am probably wrong about SP500 a lot of times this year.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Dollar
I am watching the dollar very closely.
When shit hits the fan, market participants will start driving into the dollar for safety.

I think I already shared this, but here goes again. On an intraday basis I watch this dashboard:

Risk monitor


As you can see, as the US 10 Year Yield goes up, and the dollar goes down, stocks go up, and vice versa.
So, watch closely this correlation, a weak US10Y yield, and a strong dollar, will probably be the trigger a lot of traders are looking at.

DXY daily


Other Notes
The market is in bull mode.

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

Insiders are keeping to date their insane selling spree:

http://www.openinsider.com/

Insane PE´s coming from USA:

https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– CNY Industrial production / Retail Sales / Unemployment rate
– USD Empire State Man. Index / Retail sales / NAHB Index / ADP Jobs / Jobs
– EUR Lagard Speaks / CPI
– GBP CPI / PPI

9 – 13 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Well, I couldn’t miss more plans than I did.
US elections are sort of done, Biden won and Trump is out.

Historically the market didn´t behave as “normal” and pulled a huge rally.

My LVO position got stoped with profit, I can´t distress this enough, manage your trades. I am planning to get back in, volatility is still cheap.

Failed to add on gold, couldn’t cat a bid for $1850.

$AG is going fine.

Added two new positions on $SWBI and $RGR, took last Thursday’s dump to add with size.

I will give more details on the specific sections below.

Next Week:
I am expecting a lot of drama due to the US elections and a shift of attention from the US election to Brexit and corona. This will probably trigger some kind of volatility, the trick is to know what.

More earnings:

Earnings Whispers

Special attention to:
– Rocket, business is booming
– Corsair, gaming on lockdown probably boosted the sales heavily
– Farfetch, a new deal with Alibaba
– Palantir, the most mysterious company in the world that keeps operating on a massive loss, despite having huge contracts.

I am expecting volatility across equities and FX. I am betting on a bumpy ride till the end of the year.

WTI
Had a failed break down the previous week and know It´s trading inside the channel again.
It needs to break the $40 mark to enter a new trend.
Fundamentally I think the narrative is still the same, lack of demand for such a huge supply.
Technically, It bounced perfectly on the 0.38 Fibonacci.

Oanda WTI CFD

The 90 days mean reversion is a little skewed but are behaving like support/resistance zones.

WTI Mean Reversion last 90 days
Market Gauge Crude Dashboard

Gold
Gold just broke out, again.
As shared last week, I was planning on adding to my gold position between $1850 – $1800. Unfortunately, I didn’t get my bid.
The uncertainty of US politics and the weakness of the dollar is boosting gold and this does not look very supportive for the long term, I would really like to see further consolidation.
Gold is trading between a channel, and the next few days will decide what will happen.

Bare in mind that last time the markets sold off, the dollar jumped and primed as the safe haven to be, this will have consequences to gold.

Oanda Gold CFD

I am also looking to the price of gold in YEN, Yen being one of the major safe havens currencies. Gold just broke out, which can support the bull narrative.

Gold 365 days mean reversion

On the bear side, the exposure to the dollar moves is a very important thing to have in consideration.
The $GVX (Gold volatility) proximity to It´s mean reversion of $24.

Market Gauge Gold Dashboard

And last but not least, Gold futures are trading at a negative premium. The current contract is substantially more expensive than the two references for #6 and #12. Which points to a red flag on the current price.

Market Gauge Futures Curve Gold


SP500
S&P500 is playing a dangerous game, It´s again at the top of the channel and It´s decision time.

Oanda SP500 CFD

I was expecting a lot of volatility last week, but market gods played me for a fool. And provided a huge rally based on uncertainty and chaos. We are really on a multi-billion dollar casino.

Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Be prepared for a possible buy the rumor and sell the news event.

GUNS
Last week based on the US elections chaos and indecision I decided to go long on two gun stocks. $SWBI and $RGR.
I got sort of lucky, I took advantage of the Thursdays sell-off and market bought my positions.
Technically they seem strong and fundamentally I think we will have a gun race in the US.

SWBI and RGR charts

Volatility
If you read my market preparation posts, you already noticed that volatility is always a core position for me. I do enjoy trading It and It provides sort of an edge to market down movements.

Last week, volatility imploded and I had to sell my bag.
I am planning to get back in again but when It´s the great incognito.
For the next week, I am looking at $GVZ, $VIX, and $EVZ. Gold, equities, and Euro volatility.

Market Gauge Volatility Dashboard

Other Notes
Equities to Commodities ratio, It broke down last week. Let´s see how this plays out. The setup on the ratio was pretty bullish, we had a bullish continuation pattern. Next week will let If this was a rejection or a fakeout.

SPX/ TRJEFFCRB

Sentiment turned bullish,again:

Market Gauge Sentiment

Insiders are selling massively:

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

Nordea FX weekly: Biden is not that reflationary, is he?
https://e-markets.nordea.com/article/61093

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR Sentix / ZEW
– USD Jobs / CPI / PPI / Powell Speaks
– JPY Economic watches sentiment / Core machinery orders

2 – 6 November 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week ahead of US elections. S&P500 made some crazy moves.
I was aiming for a retest of the ~3500 level but it didn’t cut it.

Earnings keep on coming out and a lot of companies are betting expectations. This makes me feel sort of uneasy in a way I don´t know if the numbers are cooked or not.

Current trades are doing fine:
– $AG is consolidating with silver
– $LVO finally ramped, you buy volatility when It´s low. When It pays, It pays hard.
– Gold CFD, consolidating, and gaining weakness with the dollar momentum. more below on the gold section)

Next Week:
US elections week!
As I write this, markets are pointing for a red open.

https://www.ig.com/en/weekend-trading

I am expecting a lot of volatility this week with a relief rally when the US election results come out.

It will be a very hard week to trade, I am expecting big swings on equities and FX.

On top of this, we have another action packed week of earnings.

Earnings Whispers

WTI
We closed below the “summer box” I will risk saying this points to doom for oil in the short term.

Bare in mind that the US elections results will influence a lot the WTI price as Biden is against the oil industry and fracking.

Prepare for a lot of volatility, This week is a no trade on the oil market for me.

Oanda CFD WTI

Gold
The yellow metal is being highly correlated with the dollar these last few weeks.
As the dollar gains strength, gold is pointing to retest the ~$1800.
I am looking at these as a huge opportunity to add to my position, at $1800-$1850.

Last September supports area looks strong, It is also the 0 Fibonacci level.

Oanda Gold CFD

SP500
The last two trading days were insane, the candles point to total indecision.
Despite this, the movements and volume were clearly pointing to the downside.
Even SPY flows were negative.

https://www.trackinsight.com/en/

A big chunk of the S&P constituents are also turning bearish, the bull-bear lines are at ~47% to the bear side

Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Technically the chart looks week too, a retest of ~3100 seems very likely.

Oanda SP500 CFD daily

Finally, the market volume spiked in the last two weeks when selling was taking place. Which gives Its strength to the bearish bias.

Market Gauge Market Tape Dashboard

Dollar
The dollar index just broke out last week with some strength. Maybe investors are running to the dollar ahead of this week’s uncertainty.

DXY daily chart

A lot of action on the FX markets too, AUD and CAD showing some weakness ahead of cash rate decisions.

Market Gauge FX Dashboard

Other Notes

Tanker rates are taking a dive.

https://fearnpulse.com/

Sentiment is a bag of mix feelings.

Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Safe havens are also mixed. CHF is consolidating and Gold is reacting to dollar strength.

Market Gauge Safe Havens Dashboard

More insider selling.

http://www.openinsider.com/

Interesting Articles

How the Electoral College works

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– World PMIs
– USD Factory Orders/ Jobs data / FOMC
– German factory orders / Industrial production
– AUD cash rates
– CAD cash rates

26 – 30 October 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Crazy week, SP500 making huge intraday swings, uncertainty reigns in the markets, and huge earnings blow out.

I am still for the major side on the sidelines, there’s too much I don´t “understand” so I prefer to be conservative. I know I am missing on huge returns, but I prefer to sleep without the worry of a market meltdown.
And there are other ways to keep investing. I recently added Masterworks.io painting shares to my portfolio, If there’s interest in it, I will make a post about it.

I am still long $AG , $LVO.MI and Gold CFD.

Next Week:
More earnings ahead, last week was pretty good earnings wise. Intel was a huge upset and Southwest Airlines a huge surprise.
I don´t really know what to think about Tesla, I sort of believe everything is a big scheme, but who knows…

The week ahead:

Earnings Whispers

I will be watching Flastly, It will be interesting to see what happens after last week’s disappointment on US and Bitedance (China /TikTok rivalry).
Microsoft is almost a certain beat with a rally, same as Apple and Amazon.
Curious about how Jetblue is doing, I wasn´t expecting the $LUV earnings.
Facebook will be a huge upset, in my opinion, the ad´s revenue ll be very bad,
The last ones are the big pharma, Pfizer, Moderna, and Gilead

WTI
WTI keeps inside the trading channel/trend lines.
I already explained my narrative, there´s no demand for the excess supply.
I think oil is heading lower, probably retest of – $30.

Oanda WTI CFD daily
Market Gauge Crude Dashboard

Gold
The yellow metal It´s trapped on the current level.
My reading is that every move is dependant on how the dollar is moving, and the uncertainty of the US elections is making gold numb.

Fun fact $GVC, gold volatility, is approaching Its lows of $20.
Technically, gold broke out a bull pennant and should be up, the failure to push through $1900 cloud be a warning.

I am still watching the $1800 level to add to my position with size (yellow area).

Oanda Gold CFD daily
Market Gauge Gold Dashboard


SP500
This big boy, the choppiness is unreal…
Last week’s swings were between a 79 points range, with intraday drops of 30-40 points. That´s huge money on the table.

SPX cash session

Technically looks like we are revisiting the 3500 level, again before a drop.

Oanda CFD SP500

To be fair, the market is holding nicely, the 250DMA is above 62%.
One thing to have in consideration, the impact of the US elections on the dollar and therefore on the stocks. Stocks are a huge yield provider for many investors in the US and If USD is no longer appellative, they will look somewhere else for that yield.

Themes
We are at that time that the “manias” will start moving again.
My special candidates are $AVO, Mission Produce, an avocado producing company.

Avo daily

$TLRY, Tilray a cannabis producing company, just broke out and could eye $11.

TLRY daily

The last mania is guns, after US elections, doesn’t matter which side wins, there will be a huge blowout. Guns will be back again with full force. I am eying $RGR Rugger and $SWBI Smith and Wesson.

SWBI and RGR daily

Other Notes
FX is going insane, CAD and AUD look very vulnerable.

Market Gauge FX

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR German Ifo climate / Cash rate / Jobs
– USD Durable goods / GDP / Chicago PMI
– CAD Cash rate / GDP
– CNY PMIs

19 – 23 October 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
More choppiness, I took the week to connect again to the markets and keep my ear to the ground.

Earnings have been good, especially banks. Bringing back the ideas from last week, banks are a laggard and probably is the sector to be in for the next days.
Airlines earnings also started with an up kick from $UAL, from last week hint, It is also a sector to be in. Some stocks are at their lows. I can´t foresee the future for airlines, but I can foretell they aren+t going bankrupt anytime soon.

Still long the same positions $LVO.MI, $AG, and Gold (CFD).

Next Week:
More earnings, special attention to $T, $NFLX, $TSLA, $LUV, $KO, $INTC, $AXP, and $VZ.

Some stocks here may be a good buy, for example, $T is a great dividend stock and is trading at near March lows. Earnings will tell how this year went for $T and what to expect for 2020 last quarter.

It will be a difficult week to trade, between dollar strength and S&P choppiness, there’s a lot of indecision in the market.
One important thing to have in mind, and these can change all the bullish narrative is that Jerome Powell speaks tomorrow (Monday).

Earnings whispers

WTI
Last week WTI broke out from a downtrend.
Despite all the bullish news, cuts, storms, inventory withdrawals, and overall bullish sentiment, the price didn’t manage to break the $41 resistance.

I still think, as explained last week. All movements are connected to crude demand. Planes are in the ground, cruise ships are stationed on ports, people are working from home, etc. The demand isn’t there.

Technically, WTI is creating a nice trading channel.
My idea, wait and watch if it breaks the newfound trend line and rejects the top of the channel. The idea is to trade it down to the bottom of the channel.

Oanda WTI CFD

Gold
The technical setup on gold is as bullish as it can be.
It´s a clear breakout from a bullish pennant. That being said, the breakout didn’t convince me. It was very low key and rejected the nearest resistance.
Gold’s latest movements are very closely correlated to the dollar which is gaining momentum and strength.

I am very bullish on gold and silver long term, although I would like a retest on the yellow box.

Oanda CFD Gold
Market Gauge Gold Dashboard


SP500
The last two trading days were insane, the reversals on the end were epic.
Last Friday SP500 closed rejecting $3500, to be fair $3500 was my last week target for it, and from then I would expect a clear rejection.

If somehow we break the pattern, we could easily see $3200 (200 DMA). I sort of dropped my bearish bias because no one will let the marker drop, a lot. And some volatility is expected because of the up and coming US elections.

Be careful trading the SP500 the daily ranges are insane.

Oanda SP500 CFD
Market Gauge SP500 Dashboard

Dollar
I think that here lies the key to the market.
US markets keep being the most liquid and better yield market available globally and guess what, in order to invest in them, you need dollars.

DXY just broke out from the downtrend channel and If this continues to ride we can expect an equities and precious metals pullback.

Also, watch the correlation between the US10Y yield Vs Dollar. Higher yields and lower dollar = good for equities, and vice versa.

USD CoT
DXY

Other Notes
Sentiment turning bullish, again.

Market Gauge Sentiment Dashboard

Tape volume is stagnated.

Market Gauge Market Tape Dashboard

Interesting Articles

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– Worlds Flash PMIs
– USD Fed Powell Speaks
– CNY Retail sales / Unemployment
– EUR Consumer confidence

12 -16 October 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Back from vacations.
Took some time to read up on the market and politics, things remain the same. Uncertainty reigns.

This breather from the markets and all things market related worked like a breeze of fresh air. I returned with an open mind and my bias is reset.

Next Week:
Here we go again, a new earnings season is about to kick off. This is going to be interesting because we already had a round of massive stimulus across the world. How companies behaved during these last 4 months will reveal a lot of what can happen until the end of the year.

What I will be watching like a Hawk:

Airlines: Despite all major airlines already have received bailout packages, I think It wasn’t enough. A new round of fresh cash injections will be needed, and coming winter the pandemic travel will get chaotic. Every sneeze or cough will be a covid alert trigger. On the bright side, when the companies report the stocks will probably tank and would be bough on the dip. Airlines like Delta, Lufthansa, Air France, American Airlines, etc won’t go anywhere. They will be bailed out, merged, or restructured. So It´s clearly a buy on the dip moment.

Banks: Especially EU banks, they have been hammered for months, we are taking -50% moves on the stock price. They will provide buy the dip moments across the chart. I am watching Natixis, Banco Santander, Intesa Sanpaolo, and BNP Paribas.

Energy: Major oil has been hammered. Despite WTI rise, oil companies have been the market dog. They are lagging a lot. I am watching major oil like XOM, CSX, RDS, the safest way to play this is through XLE or if you are a European based investor like I am, SXLE.

Earnings Whispers

WTI
Despite the bearish bias on world consumption, the prices of crude futures keep on rising. Inventories keep on drawing down but the world consumption isn´t increasing and with planes, cruises, and a lot of people working from home, the demand didn’t catch up to the supply.

One thing to have in consideration, futures spreads are trading positive, what that means, long term futures are trading at a premium related to the current contract, which indicates market interest.

Market Gauge Dashboard – WTI
Market Gauge Dashboard – Futures curve WTI

Gold
Gold just broke out, again. The massive macro narrative plus the dollar weakness is pushing gold to the moon.

The bull in me really wants a pullback to the $1800 region to buy more.
I will be watching closely the dollar movements next week.

Market Gauge Dashboard – Gold
Oanda Gold CFD daily


SP500
The gift that keeps on giving. Forget bearish bias and fundamentals, this is an all-new market. New rules, ways of trading, and reason.

SP500 broke again and as I suspected and shared a few posts ago, It will revisit the 3500 level.

I am not trading It actively as It is very difficult for me to trade movements I don’t feel comfortable with, despite having the right ideas.

Last few weeks, CME raised the limit of the future up & down, and brokers such us IBRK raised the margins requirements. Market players are preparing for a lot of volatility for the weeks ahead of US elections so we should too.

SP500 Mean reversions for the last 365 trading days
Market Gauge Dashboard – SP500

Dollar
I couldn’t be more wrong about the dollar. It has been beaten and kicked left and right. That being said, I think It´s time for a bounce.
Check the CoT´s for USD, EUR, and GBP:

Both EUR and GBP are crowded long trades and USD started to get some traction on the long side.
If the dollar manages to strike back with a vengeance, you can expect a major commodities pullback and maybe stocks will follow too.

Important note, both EUR and GBP are on top of their mega channels:

Oanda EURUSD / GBP USD Weekly

Other Notes
Insiders keep on selling their bags

Open Insider

Interesting Articles

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-money-supply-precious-metal-production-2020/

#35: Leigh Goehring On The Generational Opportunity In Energy Stocks Today

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– EUR ZEW / Industrial production
– USD CPI / PPI / Jobs / Empire State Man. Index / Philly Fed Man. Index / Retail sales / Industrial production

21 – 25 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/

Vacations at last.
A friendly reminder to take time off, take care of yourself.
Enjoy all your hard work, spend time with family and friends.
Share your good fortune and create memories.

I will be on vacation for two weeks, the reports and free data will keep being generated automatically.
I might post a few things on twitter because the addiction to keep information flowing is real.
Have fun, I think it will be a crazy week

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14 – 18 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
Another range-bound week of big ups and downs leading to nowhere.
I have been trading less and less, I don´t feel comfortable at all with this current market conditions. I will share an article from Jesse Felder where he talks particularly about this.

Still long $AG, $LVO.MI and Gold (CFD).
As I shared last week, due to negative correlations with WTI, Tankers were primed for a bump. Caught both $STNG and $TNK, both positions sold on Friday’s close.

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    I don´t think the last drop was it, I think we still have one last push before the last dance.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    It´s holding, very correlated with DXY, watch both.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains are having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I will keep it short, It will be a crazy week. A lot of technical setups for major indexes and commodities may conclude /break this week.
I don´t plan on trading heavy, I will keep my approach of laying back and let the market do Its thing.
Still eying the cannabis industry, check last week´s post.
https://eod-notes.com/2020/09/06/7-11-september-2020-trading-week-preparation/

Also, vacations are coming so It´s time to detach, 100%.

WTI
It bumped as planed to ~$40 and kept going down.
I believe It still has plenty on the downside to go, but technically a more significant bounce is due.
It triggered a pivot reversal (purple triangle) and we may see $40 again.
For mind term, I think we will see $25 WTI again.

Oanda WTI CFD daily

Another thing to have into consideration, in the last few weeks, inventories have been negative and the price has gone nowhere. Last week, the inventories gained a bit and fueled a sell.

Spreads are also widening.

Market Gauge WTI dashboard

Gold
Technically gold is super bullish, the bull flag pattern even seems to have triggered. This being said, I will watch the DXY before making a move on gold. DXY has been beaten to a pulp and It might come back to life with a revenge thirst.

Oanda Gold CFD daily
DXY daily

The spreads on gold futures #1-#12 and #1-#6 are also rising, the spread between #1-#12 is +$200 wide. This is insane and it will close, eventually.

Market Gauge futures curves dashboard
Market Gauge Gold dashboard


SP500
So, the mighty spuz.
This is a bull flag, technically this is super bullish.
I don’t think we are done with more upside and the spuz might retest ~3500 level.
Fundamentals are aligning again with super bearish strength. It´s a no-trade for me due to uncertainty.
A lot of SP500 constituents are red on the bull-bear lines (255 DMA), and the rally is being fueled by tech.
As tech is turning bearish, make your conclusions on how this house of cards will unfold.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily
Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Interesting Articles
Jesse Felder article mentioned above- https://thefelderreport.com/2020/09/09/master-the-art-of-doing-nothing/?mc_cid=2fc733fc7c&mc_eid=2fd1a72551

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
– JPY Tertiary Industry Activity
– CNY Industrial production / Unemployment rate
– GBP Unemployment rate / Cash rates
– EUR ZEW
– USD Empire State Man. Index / Industrial production / Retail sales / FOMC / Jobs / Philly Fed Index

7 – 11 September 2020 Trading week preparation

Every week I share a bunch of stuff.
– Daily signals for MA Crosses and MA breakouts
– Market Reports
– Consolidated market data and more.
https://eod-notes.com/shared-content/


From last week:
What a way to close the week, Thursday and Friday were absolutely brutal!
SP500 went entered the elevator down and broke a very important trend.
Three new stocks were added to SP500 and 3 when out, shocker (Ironically) Tesla wasn’t added.

August is finally finished and so it is my “To-do list”. I won’t be 100% on the markets during September also because It is usually my vacation month. It´s fine for me to be in and out, I find it quite refreshing because when I am game, I am 120% focused. I need this time to unwind.

Still long $AG, $LVO.MI and Gold CFD

My macro opinions for long term:

  1. We are heading lower, much lower on stocks.
    Entered the elevator down, It could be it? I have my doubts.
  2. US bond yields are going to zero.
    It´s happening, not much to say
  3. Gold and silver will go a little bit lower before acting as safe heavens.
    Closed below trend.
  4. Commodities will behave like gold, especially grains.
    Grains keep having a nice pump on the DXY decline.

Next Week:
I don’t believe this is “It” for the market, people won’t let the market die this easy. As so, this week I will share some ideas of what can pump next before the “last dance”.

One thing to have in mind, the US Misery Index is still very, very high.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_misery_index

WTI
As I suspected, the movement was brutal and to the downside.
Inventories have been in withdrawal for weeks and the price was really numb, which shows a lack of interest in WTI.

Market Gauge – Crude dashboard

It´s really hard to trade crude at the moment, consumption isn´t on a normal level and the fear of a second lockdown still looms.
I believe a retest of the $40 level is more than possible early this week, but the path of least resistance is still down.

Oanda CFD WTI daily

Another thing to have in consideration, during my correlation studies, I found out TYX (Treasury Yield 30 Years Yield) usually preludes the crude futures movements, and they are pointing down.

Crude Futures Vs TYX

Gold
Gold finally broke and closed below the up trendline.
Fundamentals for gold are better than good, but the technicals are very extended, and further consolidation is healthy for a future move up.
I will be buyer, hand over fist if we touch the yellow box.

Oanda CFD Gold daily

Another thing to have in mind is the correlation between the VIX and Gold, If you are with me betting on a VIX surge, usually when VIX surges, gold comes down, closing the correlation gap.

VIX Vs Gold


SP500
Last week ETSY, TER, and CTLT were added, and HRB, KSS and COTY were removed from SP500.
Early Monday you can expect a pump of the added stocks and a massive dump of the dropped ones.
The surprise to a lot of people was the Tesla as a no show on the added list, this might escalate the Tesla dump.

Technically SP500 closed below a major technical level and we will probably retest last Friday lows.
This is It? I don’t think so, there is still a lot of dumb money in the market and a lot of sectors to pump.

Oanda CFD SP500 daily

More than 40% of SP500 are below the bull/bear line which should be a huge indicator for anyone that trades based on trend.

Market Gauge SP500 dashboard

Tankers
The correlation between Tankers and Baltic dry Index usually has a delay.
When BDI pumps, Tanker stocks blow off and when BDI dumps, stocks rise.
It´s weird in a way, but the higher the tanker stocks close their contracts for shipping, the bigger the profits are in the end.

https://stockcharts.com/acp/?s=%24BDI

The stocks I am watching for a pump are $STNG, $TNK, $EURN and $DSSI.
It will happen when it happens, I am using the SAR as a trigger to buy.

https://www.investing.com/

Cannabis
Yup, this green bad boy. I use a, let´s call it trick to analyze this space. I made a custom index of the most traded pot stocks. If you use trading view you can copy this:
NYSE:CGCNASDAQ:TLRYNASDAQ:SNDLNYSE:STZNYSE:HEXOOTC:EMHTFOTC:ACRGF*CSE:CURA
Technically this puppy is primed to pump. I believe we still have one last dance before the SP500 dies and pot will be one of the last girls to leave the dance.

NYSE:CGCNASDAQ:TLRYNASDAQ:SNDLNYSE:STZNYSE:HEXOOTC:EMHTFOTC:ACRGF*CSE:CURA

Other Notes
Safe havens:

Market Gauge Safe havens dashboard

Gap between NDX and VXN

NDX Vs VXN

BTC Vs Yen, usually Yen and BTC move inversely, let´s see what happens on the Monday open after the BTC dump.

BTC Vs YEN

Sentiment, go bears go!

Market Gauge Sentiment dashboard

DXY weakness across the chart.

Market Gauge FX dashboard

Interesting Articles

SoftBank unmasked as ‘Nasdaq whale’ that stoked tech rally
https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-richest-families-2020/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-slashes-stake-in-wells-fargo-51599255383

Events:
Check the full calendar here:
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Special notes on:
EUR GER industrial production / EUR Sentix investor sentiment / GDP / employment numbers and cash rates
JPY GDP
CAD Cash rates
USD Jobs numbers / PPI